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Time Series Modeling Analysis of the Development and Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Spa Tourism in Slovakia

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Šenková

    (Faculty of Management, University of Prešov, Konštantínova 16, 08001 Prešov, Slovakia)

  • Martina Košíková

    (Faculty of Management, University of Prešov, Konštantínova 16, 08001 Prešov, Slovakia)

  • Daniela Matušíková

    (Faculty of Management, University of Prešov, Konštantínova 16, 08001 Prešov, Slovakia)

  • Kristína Šambronská

    (Faculty of Management, University of Prešov, Konštantínova 16, 08001 Prešov, Slovakia)

  • Ivana Kravčáková Vozárová

    (Faculty of Management, University of Prešov, Konštantínova 16, 08001 Prešov, Slovakia)

  • Rastislav Kotulič

    (Faculty of Management, University of Prešov, Konštantínova 16, 08001 Prešov, Slovakia)

Abstract

Natural healing resources in the form of mineral and thermal waters and climatic conditions, together with a rich history and modern medical procedures, rank Slovakia among the important European countries in the field of spas. At the same time, spa tourism has a significant economic benefit for the country. This study examined the impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on spa tourism in Slovakia. The Box-Jenkins methodology was used to model and forecast the time series for selected indicators. The analysis used monthly data on the capacity and performance of spa facilities for 2006–2019 and compared the forecast development for 2020–2021 with the reality as affected by the pandemic. Despite the high quality of the models, the methodology used did not take into account an unexpected event such as a pandemic. Therefore, the models were quite inaccurate and had little predictive value. At the same time, it is clear that the pandemic significantly affected spa tourism.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Šenková & Martina Košíková & Daniela Matušíková & Kristína Šambronská & Ivana Kravčáková Vozárová & Rastislav Kotulič, 2021. "Time Series Modeling Analysis of the Development and Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Spa Tourism in Slovakia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-17, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:20:p:11476-:d:658533
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anca Antoaneta Vărzaru & Claudiu George Bocean & Marian Cazacu, 2021. "Rethinking Tourism Industry in Pandemic COVID-19 Period," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Ján Derco & Piotr Romaniuk & Michal Cehlár, 2020. "Economic Impact of the Health Insurance System on Slovak Medical Spas and Mineral Spring Spas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-11, April.
    3. Alina-Cerasela Aluculesei & Puiu Nistoreanu & Daniel Avram & Bogdan Gabriel Nistoreanu, 2021. "Past and Future Trends in Medical Spas: A Co-Word Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Andrea Saayman & Ilsé Botha, 2017. "Non-linear models for tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 594-613, May.
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