IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i17p9579-d621893.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic Planning and Operational Constraint Assessment of System-Customer Power Supply Risks in Electricity Distribution Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Mikka Kisuule

    (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering Design Art and Technology, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, Uganda)

  • Ignacio Hernando-Gil

    (ESTIA Institute of Technology, University of Bordeaux, 64210 Bidart, France)

  • Jonathan Serugunda

    (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering Design Art and Technology, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, Uganda)

  • Jane Namaganda-Kiyimba

    (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering Design Art and Technology, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, Uganda)

  • Mike Brian Ndawula

    (Centre for Sustainable Power Distribution, Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK)

Abstract

Electricity-distribution network operators face several operational constraints in the provision of safe and reliable power given that investments for network area reinforcement must be commensurate with improvements in network reliability. This paper provides an integrated approach for assessing the impact of different operational constraints on distribution-network reliability by incorporating component lifetime models, time-varying component failure rates, as well as the monetary cost of customer interruptions in an all-inclusive probabilistic methodology that applies a time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. A test distribution network based on the Roy Billinton test system was modelled to investigate the system performance when overloading limits are exceeded as well as when preventive maintenance is performed. Standard reliability indices measuring the frequency and duration of interruptions and the energy not supplied were complemented with a novel monetary reliability index. The comprehensive assessment includes not only average indices but also their probability distributions to adequately describe the risk of customer interruptions. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of this holistic approach, as the impacts of operational decisions are assessed from both reliability and monetary perspectives. This informs network planning decisions through optimum investments and consideration of customer outage costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikka Kisuule & Ignacio Hernando-Gil & Jonathan Serugunda & Jane Namaganda-Kiyimba & Mike Brian Ndawula, 2021. "Stochastic Planning and Operational Constraint Assessment of System-Customer Power Supply Risks in Electricity Distribution Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-22, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:17:p:9579-:d:621893
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/17/9579/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/17/9579/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nadarajah, Saralees & Kotz, Samuel, 2006. "The beta exponential distribution," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(6), pages 689-697.
    2. Afzali, Peyman & Keynia, Farshid & Rashidinejad, Masoud, 2019. "A new model for reliability-centered maintenance prioritisation of distribution feeders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 701-709.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mikka Kisuule & Mike Brian Ndawula & Chenghong Gu & Ignacio Hernando-Gil, 2023. "PV Hosting Capacity in LV Networks by Combining Customer Voltage Sensitivity and Reliability Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-17, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mahmoud Aldeni & Carl Lee & Felix Famoye, 2017. "Families of distributions arising from the quantile of generalized lambda distribution," Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Ali Genç, 2013. "A skew extension of the slash distribution via beta-normal distribution," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 427-442, May.
    3. Abdus Saboor & Muhammad Nauman Khan & Gauss M. Cordeiro & Marcelino A. R. Pascoa & Juliano Bortolini & Shahid Mubeen, 2019. "Modified beta modified-Weibull distribution," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 173-199, March.
    4. Alexander, Carol & Cordeiro, Gauss M. & Ortega, Edwin M.M. & Sarabia, José María, 2012. "Generalized beta-generated distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1880-1897.
    5. Gauss Cordeiro & Elizabeth Hashimoto & Edwin Ortega & Marcelino Pascoa, 2012. "The McDonald extended distribution: properties and applications," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(3), pages 409-433, July.
    6. Gauss M. Cordeiro & Giovana O. Silva & Edwin M. M. Ortega, 2016. "An extended-G geometric family," Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Yaoting Yang & Weizhong Tian & Tingting Tong, 2021. "Generalized Mixtures of Exponential Distribution and Associated Inference," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, June.
    8. Zakeia A. Al-saiary & Rana A. Bakoban & Areej A. Al-zahrani, 2019. "Characterizations of the Beta Kumaraswamy Exponential Distribution," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Wagner Barreto-Souza & Vinícius Diniz Mayrink, 2019. "Semiparametric generalized exponential frailty model for clustered survival data," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 71(3), pages 679-701, June.
    10. Yan Zhou & Zhongmin Liang & Binquan Li & Yixin Huang & Kai Wang & Yiming Hu, 2021. "Seamless Integration of Rainfall Spatial Variability and a Conceptual Hydrological Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.
    11. Elizabeth Hashimoto & Gauss Cordeiro & Edwin Ortega, 2013. "The new Neyman type A beta Weibull model with long-term survivors," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 933-954, June.
    12. Mashail M. AL Sobhi, 2020. "The Inverse-Power Logistic-Exponential Distribution: Properties, Estimation Methods, and Application to Insurance Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-15, November.
    13. Andrés A. Zúñiga & Alexandre Baleia & João Fernandes & Paulo Jose Da Costa Branco, 2020. "Classical Failure Modes and Effects Analysis in the Context of Smart Grid Cyber-Physical Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-26, March.
    14. Majdah Badr & Muhammad Ijaz, 2021. "The Exponentiated Exponential Burr XII distribution: Theory and application to lifetime and simulated data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, March.
    15. Hassan S. Bakouch & Abdus Saboor & Muhammad Nauman Khan, 2021. "Modified Beta Linear Exponential Distribution with Hydrologic Applications," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 131-157, March.
    16. Ahmed Daeli & Salman Mohagheghi, 2022. "Power Grid Infrastructural Resilience against Extreme Events," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, December.
    17. Almalki, Saad J. & Nadarajah, Saralees, 2014. "Modifications of the Weibull distribution: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 32-55.
    18. Abdulhakim A. Al-Babtain & Mohammed K. Shakhatreh & Mazen Nassar & Ahmed Z. Afify, 2020. "A New Modified Kies Family: Properties, Estimation Under Complete and Type-II Censored Samples, and Engineering Applications," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-24, August.
    19. Emrah Altun & Mustafa Ç. Korkmaz & Mahmoud El-Morshedy & Mohamed S. Eliwa, 2021. "A New Flexible Family of Continuous Distributions: The Additive Odd-G Family," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-17, August.
    20. Haghighi, Firoozeh, 2014. "Optimal design of accelerated life tests for an extension of the exponential distribution," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 251-256.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:17:p:9579-:d:621893. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.