IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i15p8583-d606497.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate Change and Food Security: The Impact of Some Key Variables on Wheat Yield in Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Stanislav E. Shmelev

    (Environment Europe Limited, Oxford OX2 6JG, UK
    Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Vitaliy Salnikov

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Galina Turulina

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Svetlana Polyakova

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Tamara Tazhibayeva

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Tobias Schnitzler

    (Austrian Committee, The World University Service (WUS), 8010 Graz, Austria)

  • Irina A. Shmeleva

    (Institute of Design and Urban Studies, ITMO University, 197101 St. Petersburg, Russia)

Abstract

In such drought-prone regions as Kazakhstan, research on regional drought characteristics and their formation conditions is of paramount importance for actions to mitigate drought risks caused by climate change. This paper presents the results of research on the spatio-temporal patterns of atmospheric droughts as one of the most important factors hindering the formation of crop yields. The influence of several potential predictors characterizing teleconnection in the coupled “atmosphere–ocean” system and cosmic-geophysical factors affecting their formation is analyzed. The spatial relationships between atmospheric aridity at the individual stations of the investigated area and the wheat yield in Kazakhstan as well as its relationships with potential predictors were determined using econometric methods. High correlation was shown between wheat yield fluctuations and Multivariate El-Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), galactic cosmic radiation, solar activity, and atmospheric drought expressed through the soil moisture index, which in turn depends on precipitation levels and temperatures. The model could be modified further so that the individual components could be forecasted into the future using various time series in an ARIMA model. The resulting integration of these forecasts would allow the prediction of wheat yields in the future. The obtained results can be used in the process of creating effective mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and droughts based on their early diagnosis.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav E. Shmelev & Vitaliy Salnikov & Galina Turulina & Svetlana Polyakova & Tamara Tazhibayeva & Tobias Schnitzler & Irina A. Shmeleva, 2021. "Climate Change and Food Security: The Impact of Some Key Variables on Wheat Yield in Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:15:p:8583-:d:606497
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/15/8583/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/15/8583/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
    2. David Ubilava & Matt Holt, 2013. "El Niño southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(2), pages 273-297, April.
    3. Ephias M. Makaudze, 2012. "Assessing the Economic Value of El Niñobased seasonal climate forecasts for smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe," Working Papers 303, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    4. David Ubilava & Matt Holt, 2013. "El Niño southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(2), pages 273-297, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wen Huo & Fan Yang & Xiefei Zhi & Ali Mamtimin & Qing He & Honglin Pan & Cong Wen & Yu Wang & Ye Wu & Xinghua Yang & Chenglong Zhou & Meiqi Song & Lu Meng & Minzhong Wang, 2022. "A Comparative Study on the Difference in Meteorological Monitoring between Constructed Green Land and Natural Sandy Land," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Tamilarasu Arivelarasan & V. S. Manivasagam & Vellingiri Geethalakshmi & Kulanthaivel Bhuvaneswari & Kiruthika Natarajan & Mohan Balasubramanian & Ramasamy Gowtham & Raveendran Muthurajan, 2023. "How Far Will Climate Change Affect Future Food Security? An Inquiry into the Irrigated Rice System of Peninsular India," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jesse B. Tack & David Ubilava, 2015. "Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 245-257, March.
    2. Jesse Tack & David Ubilava, 2013. "The effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on U.S. corn production and downside risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 689-700, December.
    3. Davinson Stev Abril‐Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2020. "Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1059-1086, October.
    4. Arellano-Gonzalez, Jesus & Juarez-Torres, Miriam & Zazueta-Borboa, Francisco, 2021. "Temperature shocks and local price changes of agricultural products: panel data evidence from Mexico," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314060, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Alejandro Plastina & Sergio H. Lence & Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2021. "How weather affects the decomposition of total factor productivity in U.S. agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(2), pages 215-234, March.
    6. David Ubilava, 2018. "The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 239-263.
    7. Daniel Parra-Amado & Davinson Stev Abril-Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia, 2016. "Impactos de los fenómenos climáticos sobre el precio de los alimentos en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 34(80), pages 146-158, June.
    8. Von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2017. "The analysis of market integration and price transmission – results and implications in an African context," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 56(2), March.
    9. David Ubilava, 2014. "El Niño Southern Oscillation and the fishmeal–soya bean meal price ratio: regime-dependent dynamics revisited," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(4), pages 583-604.
    10. Hernan Botero & Andrew P. Barnes, 2022. "The effect of ENSO on common bean production in Colombia: a time series approach," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(6), pages 1417-1430, December.
    11. Ivan Djuric & Linde Götz & Thomas Glauben, 2015. "Are Export Restrictions an Effective Instrument to Insulate Domestic Prices Against Skyrocketing World Market Prices? The Wheat Export Ban in Serbia," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 215-228, April.
    12. Arellano Gonzalez Jesus & Juárez-Torres Miriam & Zazueta Borboa Francisco, 2023. "Weather Shocks, Prices and Productivity: Evidence from Staples in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-16, Banco de México.
    13. Pede, Valerien O. & Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & McKenzie, Andrew M., 2013. "Nonlinearities in Regional Rice Prices in the Philippines: Evidence from a Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) Approach," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150246, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Matteo Bonato & Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "El Niño, La Niña, and forecastability of the realized variance of agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 785-801, July.
    15. Massimo Peri, 2017. "Climate variability and the volatility of global maize and soybean prices," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 673-683, August.
    16. Ubilava, David & Villoria, Nelson, 2013. "Do the Trade Winds Alter the Trade Flow? Assessing Impacts of ENSO Shocks on World Cereal Supply," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150516, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "The (Asymmetric) effect of El Niño and La Niña on gold and silver prices in a GVAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Peri, Massimo, 2015. "Cliamte Variability and Agricultural Price volatility: the case of corn and soybeans," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212623, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(01), pages 1-28, April.
    20. Ubilava, David, 2017. "The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 490-502.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:15:p:8583-:d:606497. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.