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A Machine Learning-Based Prediction Model of LCCO 2 for Building Envelope Renovation in Taiwan

Author

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  • Yaw-Shyan Tsay

    (Department of Architecture, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan)

  • Chiu-Yu Yeh

    (Department of Architecture, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan)

  • Yu-Han Chen

    (Department of Architecture, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan)

  • Mei-Chen Lu

    (Department of Architecture, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan)

  • Yu-Chen Lin

    (Department of Architecture, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan)

Abstract

In 2015, Taiwan’s government announced the “Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act”, the goal of which was a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050, compared with 2005. The residential and commercial sectors produce approximately one third of all carbon emissions in Taiwan, and the number of construction renovation projects is much larger than that of new construction projects. In this paper, we considered the life-cycle CO 2 (LCCO 2 ) of a building envelope renovation project in Tainan and focused on local construction methods for typical row houses. The LCCO 2 of 744 cases with various climate zones, orientations, and insulation and glazing types was calculated via EnergyPlus, SimaPro, and a local database (LCBA database), and the results were then used to develop a machine learning model. Our findings showed that the machine learning model was capable of predicting annual energy consumption and LCCO 2 . With regard to annual energy consumption, the RMSE was 227.09 kW·h (per year) and the R 2 was 0.992. For LCCO 2 , the RMSE was 2792.47 kgCO 2 eq and the R 2 was 0.989, which indicates a high-confidence process for decision making in the early stages of building design and renovation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yaw-Shyan Tsay & Chiu-Yu Yeh & Yu-Han Chen & Mei-Chen Lu & Yu-Chen Lin, 2021. "A Machine Learning-Based Prediction Model of LCCO 2 for Building Envelope Renovation in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:15:p:8209-:d:599593
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    References listed on IDEAS

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