A Decomposition Analysis of the Korean Manufacturing Sector: Monetary vs. Physical Outputs

This study analyzes the changes in energy consumption of the Korean manufacturing sector using the index decomposition analysis (IDA) method. To capture the production effect based on actual physical activities, we applied the activity revaluation (AR) approach in the analysis. We also developed energy consumption data in terms of primary energy supply to consider conversion loss in the energy sector to avoid any distortions in the intensity effect. The analysis covers every manufacturing subsector in Korea over the period between 2006 and 2018. Combining two distinctive approaches from the previous literature, the AR approach and primary energy-based analysis gives us helpful findings for a climate policy. First, the overall activity effect estimated from the physical output indicator is lower than that from the monetary output indicator. The monetary indicator shows that the share of energy-intensive industries decreases, whereas the physical indicator shows the opposite. Second, in terms of energy efficiency, the intensity effect is estimated as an increasing factor of energy use, whereas inversed results are shown when we use the monetary indicator. Lastly, unlike the previous studies, the AR approach results indicate that Korean manufacturing sectors have been shifting toward an energy-intensive, so it is hard to anticipate positive intensity effects, which means decreasing energy consumption factor, for a while. These results support why analyzing the driving forces of energy consumption through the AR approach and primary energy base is highly recommended.