IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i6p2305-d332963.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Precipitation in Southwest Arid-Agriculture Zones of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Waseem

    (Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan)

  • Ijaz Ahmad

    (Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan)

  • Ahmad Mujtaba

    (Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Tayyab

    (College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China)

  • Chen Si

    (Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Development and Environmental Response, Wuhan 430062, China
    School of Resources and Environment, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China)

  • Haishen Lü

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Xiaohua Dong

    (College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
    Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Security, Wuhan 430070, China)

Abstract

Investigation of spatiotemporal precipitation trends from a climate change perspective is essential, especially in those regions with rainfed agriculture in order to propose sustainable adaptation schemes. Some restrictive assumptions may hinder the efficacy of trend detection methods, so it could be supported with variability analysis to have a clear picture of the spatiotemporal precipitation dynamics rather than focusing on a single approach. Hence, in the current study, a spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of precipitation was carried out using trend detection methods (the innovative trend analysis method and Mann–Kendall test) and statistical indices (the consecutive disparity index, entropy-based variability index and absolute inter-variability index) in the southwest arid region of Pakistan. The results indicated that based on the monthly, annual and seasonal time series, no systematic precipitation pattern was observed across the whole study region. However, on average, an increasing trend was observed in the east plateau while decreasing in the west plateau. The variability analysis also signposted the higher variability in the case of the western plateau and coastal area compared to the east plateau. Based on the seasonal analysis, it was concluded that, on average, precipitation in the winter and spring season goes on decreasing with higher variability while a mixture of increasing and decreasing trends resulted for summer and autumn. Conclusively the study found that precipitation in the study area is more erratic and its behaviour abruptly changed over a short distance. Moreover, discrepancies and inconstancies were found in the selected trend detection approaches and variability indices. The results also indicated that climate change is going to seriously affect the region as a decreasing trend prevails in most of the cases and stations.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Waseem & Ijaz Ahmad & Ahmad Mujtaba & Muhammad Tayyab & Chen Si & Haishen Lü & Xiaohua Dong, 2020. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Precipitation in Southwest Arid-Agriculture Zones of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:6:p:2305-:d:332963
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/6/2305/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/6/2305/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatemeh Barzegari Banadkooki & Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Chow Ming Fai & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Wani M. Ridwam & Ahmed Sefelnasr & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2019. "Precipitation Forecasting Using Multilayer Neural Network and Support Vector Machine Optimization Based on Flow Regime Algorithm Taking into Account Uncertainties of Soft Computing Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-21, November.
    2. Yixue Zeng & Zhixiang Zhou & Zhaogui Yan & Mingjun Teng & Chunbo Huang, 2019. "Climate Change and Its Attribution in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    4. Mojtaba Shadmani & Safar Marofi & Majid Roknian, 2012. "Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 211-224, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leszek Sobkowiak & Adam Perz & Dariusz Wrzesiński & Muhammad Abrar Faiz, 2020. "Estimation of the River Flow Synchronicity in the Upper Indus River Basin Using Copula Functions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Vipin Kumar Oad & Xiaohua Dong & Muhammad Arfan & Vicky Kumar & Muhammad Salman Mohsin & Syed Saad & Haishen Lü & Muhammad Imran Azam & Muhammad Tayyab, 2020. "Identification of Shift in Sowing and Harvesting Dates of Rice Crop ( L. Oryza sativa ) through Remote Sensing Techniques: A Case Study of Larkana District," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Muhammad Shehzad Ashraf & Muhammad Shahid & Muhammad Waseem & Muhammad Azam & Khalil Ur Rahman, 2023. "Assessment of Variability in Hydrological Droughts Using the Improved Innovative Trend Analysis Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Liuyue & Xu, Zhenci & Wang, Sufen & Bao, Jianxia & Fan, Yunfei & Daccache, Andre, 2022. "Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    2. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    3. Bu, Lingduo & Chen, Xinping & Li, Shiqing & Liu, Jianliang & Zhu, Lin & Luo, Shasha & Lee Hill, Robert & Zhao, Ying, 2015. "The effect of adapting cultivars on the water use efficiency of dryland maize (Zea mays L.) in northwestern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-9.
    4. Wenfeng Chi & Yuanyuan Zhao & Wenhui Kuang & Tao Pan & Tu Ba & Jinshen Zhao & Liang Jin & Sisi Wang, 2021. "Impact of Cropland Evolution on Soil Wind Erosion in Inner Mongolia of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-16, June.
    5. Xu, Ying & Findlay, Christopher, 2019. "Farmers’ constraints, governmental support and climate change adaptation: Evidence from Guangdong Province, China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(4), October.
    6. Zhongen Niu & Huimin Yan & Fang Liu, 2020. "Decreasing Cropping Intensity Dominated the Negative Trend of Cropland Productivity in Southern China in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Yuhong Shuai & Liming Yao, 2021. "Adjustable Robust Optimization for Multi-Period Water Allocation in Droughts Under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4043-4065, September.
    8. Zhang, Fengtai & Xiao, Yuedong & Gao, Lei & Ma, Dalai & Su, Ruiqi & Yang, Qing, 2022. "How agricultural water use efficiency varies in China—A spatial-temporal analysis considering unexpected outputs," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    9. Chen, Qi & Qu, Zhaoming & Ma, Guohua & Wang, Wenjing & Dai, Jiaying & Zhang, Min & Wei, Zhanbo & Liu, Zhiguang, 2022. "Humic acid modulates growth, photosynthesis, hormone and osmolytes system of maize under drought conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    10. Weibin Zhang & Xiaochun Zha & Jiaxing Li & Wei Liang & Yugai Ma & Dongmei Fan & Sha Li, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Change of Blue Water and Green Water Resources in the Headwater of Yellow River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4715-4732, October.
    11. Kang, Shaozhong & Hao, Xinmei & Du, Taisheng & Tong, Ling & Su, Xiaoling & Lu, Hongna & Li, Xiaolin & Huo, Zailin & Li, Sien & Ding, Risheng, 2017. "Improving agricultural water productivity to ensure food security in China under changing environment: From research to practice," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 5-17.
    12. Zhihai Yang & Amin W. Mugera & Fan Zhang, 2016. "Investigating Yield Variability and Inefficiency in Rice Production: A Case Study in Central China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-11, August.
    13. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.
    14. Sicong Wang & Changhai Qin & Yong Zhao & Jing Zhao & Yuping Han, 2023. "The Evolutionary Path of the Center of Gravity for Water Use, the Population, and the Economy, and Their Decomposed Contributions in China from 1965 to 2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    15. Minghao Bai & Shenbei Zhou & Ting Tang, 2022. "A Reconstruction of Irrigated Cropland Extent in China from 2000 to 2019 Using the Synergy of Statistics and Satellite-Based Datasets," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-27, September.
    16. Yang, Wenjie & Li, Yanhang & Jia, Bingli & Liu, Lei & Yuan, Aijing & Liu, Jinshan & Qiu, Weihong, 2024. "Optimized fertilization based on fallow season precipitation and the Nutrient Expert system for dryland wheat reduced environmental risks and increased economic benefits," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    17. Wang, Guangshuai & Liang, Yueping & Zhang, Qian & Jha, Shiva K. & Gao, Yang & Shen, Xiaojun & Sun, Jingsheng & Duan, Aiwang, 2016. "Mitigated CH4 and N2O emissions and improved irrigation water use efficiency in winter wheat field with surface drip irrigation in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 403-407.
    18. Yoro Diallo & Sébastien Marchand & Etienne Espagne, 2019. "Impacts of extreme events on technical efficiency in Vietnamese agriculture," CERDI Working papers halshs-02080285, HAL.
    19. Cao, Meng & Chen, Min & Liu, Ji & Liu, Yanli, 2022. "Assessing the performance of satellite soil moisture on agricultural drought monitoring in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    20. Xu, Zhihao & Yin, Xinan & Yang, Zhifeng & Cai, Yanpeng & Sun, Tao, 2016. "New model to assessing nutrient assimilative capacity in plant-dominated lakes: Considering ecological effects of hydrological changes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 94-102.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:6:p:2305-:d:332963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.