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Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Cultivation in Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Author

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  • An T. N. Dang

    (School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia)

  • Lalit Kumar

    (School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia)

  • Michael Reid

    (School of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia)

Abstract

Rice paddy fields, considered as a human-made wetland ecosystems, play important roles in food production and ecosystem conservation. Nowadays, rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, is under severe threat from climate changes, yet there is a shortage of documented information and research on rice production under future climate. Hence, the present study investigates the impacts of climate change on rice cultivation in the MD using an ensemble-modelling approach, implemented by biomod2 platform in R software. Rice cultivation occurrence points, eco-physiological and bioclimatic data were utilised to model habitat suitability for rice cultivation under current and future climate, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the year 2050. The ensemble model obtained acceptable accuracy with scores of 0.880, 0.993 and 0.960 for KAPPA, ROC/AUC and TSS, respectively. Simulation results show that the mean loss of suitable land and mean gain of unsuitable land were 31.4% and 64.6%, respectively, for the year 2050 compared to the present. Salinity intrusion, increases in precipitation during rainy season and decreases in precipitation during dry season were key factors driving the loss of suitable habitat. The findings of this study critically support policy makers and planners in developing appropriate strategies for adaptation and mitigation in response to climate change for sustainable rice cultivation.

Suggested Citation

  • An T. N. Dang & Lalit Kumar & Michael Reid, 2020. "Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Cultivation in Mekong Delta, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-21, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:22:p:9608-:d:446974
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    2. Sujith S. Ratnayake & Michael Reid & Nicolette Larder & Harsha K. Kadupitiya & Danny Hunter & Punchi B. Dharmasena & Lalit Kumar & Benjamin Kogo & Keminda Herath & Champika S. Kariyawasam, 2023. "Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Farming in the Village Tank Cascade Systems of Sri Lanka," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-30, June.
    3. Saeed Solaymani, 2023. "Impacts of Environmental Variables on Rice Production in Malaysia," World, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Trinh, Tra Thi & Munro, Alistair, 2023. "Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    5. Sujith S. Ratnayake & Lalit Kumar & Punchi B. Dharmasena & Harsha K. Kadupitiya & Champika S. Kariyawasam & Danny Hunter, 2021. "Sustainability of Village Tank Cascade Systems of Sri Lanka: Exploring Cascade Anatomy and Socio-Ecological Nexus for Ecological Restoration Planning," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, September.
    6. McCarthy, Nancy & Cavatassi, Romina & Mabiso, Athur, 2023. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 89: Incorporating the Impact of Climate and Weather Variables in Impact Assessments: An Application to an IFAD Climate Change Adaptation Project in Viet Nam," IFAD Research Series 330876, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    7. Ho, Tien D. N. & Tsusaka, Takuji W. & Kuwornu, John K. M. & Datta, Avishek & Nguyen, Loc T., 2021. "Determinants of climate adaptation by smallholder rice producers: livelihood diversification in the Mekong Delta Region of Vietnam," 2021 ASAE 10th International Conference (Virtual), January 11-13, Beijing, China 329401, Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE).

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