IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i19p8256-d424630.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Consistency in Vulnerability Assessments of Wheat to Climate Change—A District-Level Analysis in India

Author

Listed:
  • Vanshika Dhamija

    (Department of Natural Resources, TERI School of Advanced Studies, New Delhi 110070, India)

  • Roopam Shukla

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany)

  • Christoph Gornott

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany)

  • PK Joshi

    (School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India
    Special Centre for Disaster Research, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India)

Abstract

In India, a reduction in wheat crop yield would lead to a widespread impact on food security. In particular, the most vulnerable people are severely exposed to food insecurity. This study estimates the climate change vulnerability of wheat crops with respect to heterogeneities in time, space, and weighting methods. The study uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework of vulnerability while using composite indices of 27 indicators to explain exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We used climate projections under current (1975–2005) conditions and two future (2021–2050) Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, to estimate exposure to climatic risks. Consistency across three weighting methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Equal Weights (EWs)) was evaluated. Results of the vulnerability profile suggest high vulnerability of the wheat crop in northern and central India. In particular, the districts Unnao, Sirsa, Hardoi, and Bathinda show high vulnerability and high consistency across current and future climate scenarios. In total, 84% of the districts show more than 75% consistency in the current climate, and 83% and 68% of the districts show more than 75% consistency for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenario for the three weighting methods, respectively. By using different weighting methods, it was possible to quantify “method uncertainty” in vulnerability assessment and enhance robustness in identifying most vulnerable regions. Finally, we emphasize the importance of communicating uncertainties, both in data and methods in vulnerability research, to effectively guide adaptation planning. The results of this study would serve as the basis for designing climate impacts adjusted adaptation measures for policy interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanshika Dhamija & Roopam Shukla & Christoph Gornott & PK Joshi, 2020. "Consistency in Vulnerability Assessments of Wheat to Climate Change—A District-Level Analysis in India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-16, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:19:p:8256-:d:424630
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/19/8256/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/19/8256/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qunying Luo, 2011. "Temperature thresholds and crop production: a review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 583-598, December.
    2. R. Mall & Ranjeet Singh & Akhilesh Gupta & G. Srinivasan & L. Rathore, 2007. "Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: a review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 82(1), pages 225-231, May.
    3. Eric Tate, 2012. "Social vulnerability indices: a comparative assessment using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 325-347, September.
    4. Esha Zaveri & David Lobell, 2019. "The role of irrigation in changing wheat yields and heat sensitivity in India," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhengyuan Zhao & Yunlong Zhang & Siqi Sun & Ting Li & Yihe Lü & Wei Jiang & Xing Wu, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Variations in Grassland Vulnerability on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on a Comprehensive Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Jun Tu & Shiwei Luo & Yongfeng Yang & Puyan Qin & Pengwei Qi & Qiaoqiao Li, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and the Influencing Factors of Tourism-Based Social-Ecological System Vulnerability in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    2. Daniel Cooley & Steven M. Smith, 2022. "Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions," NBER Chapters, in: American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change, pages 135-171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Delpeuch, Claire & Leblois, Antoine, 2014. "The Elusive Quest for Supply Response to Cash-Crop Market Reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Cotton," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 521-537.
    4. Yi-Chun Ko & Shinsuke Uchida & Akira Hibiki, 2024. "Substitution of Human and Physical Capitals in Farm Adaptation to Extreme Temperatures: Evidence from Corn Yields in US," TUPD Discussion Papers 49, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    5. Matteo Zampieri & Andrea Toreti & Andrej Ceglar & Pierluca De Palma & Thomas Chatzopoulos, 2020. "Analysing the resilience of the European commodity production system with PyResPro, the Python Production Resilience package," Papers 2006.08976, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    6. Xiaopei Tang & Haijun Liu & Li Yang & Lun Li & Jie Chang, 2022. "Energy Balance, Microclimate, and Crop Evapotranspiration of Winter Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under Sprinkler Irrigation," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, June.
    7. Gainbi Park & Zengwang Xu, 2022. "The constituent components and local indicator variables of social vulnerability index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(1), pages 95-120, January.
    8. Kamal Kumar Murari & Sandeep Mahato & T. Jayaraman & Madhura Swaminathan, 2018. "Extreme Temperatures and Crop Yields in Karnataka, India," Journal, Review of Agrarian Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 92-114, July-Dece.
    9. Prabal Barua & Syed Hafizur Rahman, 2020. "Resilience Of Agriculture Farmers For Crop Production In Responses To Climate Change Impact On South - Eastern Coast Of Bangladesh," Environment & Ecosystem Science (EES), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 28-37, April.
    10. Amarasingha, R.P.R.K. & Suriyagoda, L.D.B. & Marambe, B. & Gaydon, D.S. & Galagedara, L.W. & Punyawardena, R. & Silva, G.L.L.P. & Nidumolu, U. & Howden, M., 2015. "Simulation of crop and water productivity for rice (Oryza sativa L.) using APSIM under diverse agro-climatic conditions and water management techniques in Sri Lanka," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 132-143.
    11. Aguilar-Gomez, Sandra & Gutierrez, Emilio & Heres, David & Jaume, David & Tobal, Martin, 2024. "Thermal stress and financial distress: Extreme temperatures and firms’ loan defaults in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Wei Zhang & Qianxing Zhao & Minjie Pei, 2021. "How much uncertainty does the choice of data transforming method brings to heat risk mapping? Evidence from China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 349-373, March.
    13. Fangtian Liu & Erqi Xu & Hongqi Zhang, 2024. "Assessing typhoon disaster mitigation capacity and its uncertainty analysis in Hainan, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(11), pages 9401-9420, September.
    14. Mohsen Alizadeh & Esmaeil Alizadeh & Sara Asadollahpour Kotenaee & Himan Shahabi & Amin Beiranvand Pour & Mahdi Panahi & Baharin Bin Ahmad & Lee Saro, 2018. "Social Vulnerability Assessment Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model for Earthquake Hazard in Tabriz City, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, September.
    15. Jonathan W. F. Remo & Nicholas Pinter & Moe Mahgoub, 2016. "Assessing Illinois’s flood vulnerability using Hazus-MH," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 265-287, March.
    16. Barbora Sedova & Matthias Kalkuhl & Robert Mendelsohn, 2020. "Distributional Impacts of Weather and Climate in Rural India," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-44, April.
    17. Fei Li & Tan Yigitcanlar & Madhav Nepal & Kien Nguyen Thanh & Fatih Dur, 2022. "Understanding Urban Heat Vulnerability Assessment Methods: A PRISMA Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-34, September.
    18. Mohammad Abdul Quader & Amanat Ullah Khan & Matthieu Kervyn, 2017. "Assessing Risks from Cyclones for Human Lives and Livelihoods in the Coastal Region of Bangladesh," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-26, July.
    19. Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B., 2014. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 562-575.
    20. Richard R. Shaker & Joseph Aversa & Victoria Papp & Bryant M. Serre & Brian R. Mackay, 2020. "Showcasing Relationships between Neighborhood Design and Wellbeing Toronto Indicators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-24, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:19:p:8256-:d:424630. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.