IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i19p8248-d424558.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decarbonization Tradeoffs: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling Analysis for the Chilean Power Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Shahriyar Nasirov

    (Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Avenida Diagonal Las Torres 2640, 7941169 Peñalolén, Santiago, Chile)

  • Raúl O’Ryan

    (Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Avenida Diagonal Las Torres 2640, 7941169 Peñalolén, Santiago, Chile)

  • Héctor Osorio

    (Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Avenida Diagonal Las Torres 2640, 7941169 Peñalolén, Santiago, Chile)

Abstract

Medium size developing countries like Chile that commit to decarbonization goals need to carefully assess the trade-offs associated to their intensity and timing, since most of the technologies required will be absorbed, not produced, by these countries. A rapid expansion of renewables in the Chilean energy matrix, mostly thanks to exceptional solar and wind resources, combined with a rapid decrease in the cost of renewable energy technologies, intensified current policy debates to reduce the role of coal, which is the largest source of CO 2 emissions in the generation mix. Recently, the main generation companies in Chile made a voluntary commitment to not invest in new coal projects that do not include carbon capture and storage systems. In addition, the Chilean government announced its plans to phase out coal plants completely by 2040. In this context, the aim of this research is to study the economy-wide and emission reduction impacts of different decarbonization paths in the Chilean power sector. For this purpose, we consider dynamic simulations using a new energy-oriented version of the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)- General Equilibrium Model for the Chilean Economy (ECOGEM)-Chile which is soft linked to the bottom-up engineering energy model. The results show the major impacts under both the business as usual (BAU) scenario and the coal phase-out scenario. Additionally, the study discusses to what extent the ambitious decarbonization goals of the Chilean government are coherent with the current technological limitations.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahriyar Nasirov & Raúl O’Ryan & Héctor Osorio, 2020. "Decarbonization Tradeoffs: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling Analysis for the Chilean Power Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:19:p:8248-:d:424558
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/19/8248/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/19/8248/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taesik Yun & Gyeong Lyeob Cho & Jang-Yeop Kim, 2016. "Analyzing Economic Effects with Energy Mix Changes: A Hybrid CGE Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Francesco Fuso Nerini & Julia Tomei & Long Seng To & Iwona Bisaga & Priti Parikh & Mairi Black & Aiduan Borrion & Catalina Spataru & Vanesa Castán Broto & Gabrial Anandarajah & Ben Milligan & Yacob Mu, 2018. "Mapping synergies and trade-offs between energy and the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 10-15, January.
    3. Wene, C.-O., 1996. "Energy-economy analysis: Linking the macroeconomic and systems engineering approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(9), pages 809-824.
    4. Ioannis Charalampidis & Panagiotis Karkatsoulis & Pantelis Capros, 2019. "A Regional Economy-Energy-Transport Model of the EU for Assessing Decarbonization in Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-27, August.
    5. Kamalova Mariyakhan & Elyas Abdulahi Mohamued & Muhammad Asif Khan & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2020. "Does the Level of Absorptive Capacity Matter for Carbon Intensity? Evidence from the USA and China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.
    6. O'Ryan, Raúl & Miller, Sebastian & de Miguel, Carlos J., 2003. "A CGE framework to evaluate policy options for reducing air pollution emissions in Chile," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 285-309, May.
    7. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    8. Mark Howells & Sebastian Hermann & Manuel Welsch & Morgan Bazilian & Rebecka Segerström & Thomas Alfstad & Dolf Gielen & Holger Rogner & Guenther Fischer & Harrij van Velthuizen & David Wiberg & Charl, 2013. "Integrated analysis of climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 621-626, July.
    9. O'Ryan, Raúl & de Miguel, Carlos J. & Miller, Sebastian & Munasinghe, Mohan, 2005. "Computable general equilibrium model analysis of economywide cross effects of social and environmental policies in Chile," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 447-472, September.
    10. Wing, Ian Sue, 2006. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technologies and the cost of limiting US CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3847-3869, December.
    11. Krook-Riekkola, Anna & Berg, Charlotte & Ahlgren, Erik O. & Söderholm, Patrik, 2017. "Challenges in top-down and bottom-up soft-linking: Lessons from linking a Swedish energy system model with a CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 803-817.
    12. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of a Low-Carbon Electricity Transition in Kenya and Ghana: An Exploratory Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," MPRA Paper 78070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Wade, N.S. & Taylor, P.C. & Lang, P.D. & Jones, P.R., 2010. "Evaluating the benefits of an electrical energy storage system in a future smart grid," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7180-7188, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Di Foggia, Giacomo & Beccarello, Massimo, 2024. "European roadmaps to achieving 2030 renewable energy targets," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Nasirov, Shahriyar & Girard, Aymeric & Peña, Cristobal & Salazar, Felipe & Simon, François, 2021. "Expansion of renewable energy in Chile: Analysis of the effects on employment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    3. Diamantis Koutsandreas & Evangelos Spiliotis & Haris Doukas & John Psarras, 2021. "What Is the Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Decarbonization Speeds? The Case of Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, April.
    4. Grzegorz Lew & Beata Sadowska & Katarzyna Chudy-Laskowska & Grzegorz Zimon & Magdalena Wójcik-Jurkiewicz, 2021. "Influence of Photovoltaic Development on Decarbonization of Power Generation—Example of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    5. Branimir Tramošljika & Paolo Blecich & Igor Bonefačić & Vladimir Glažar, 2021. "Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Coal-Fired Power Plant with Post-Combustion Carbon Capture: Analysis of Electricity Penalty and CO 2 Emission Reduction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Weijiang Liu & Tingting Liu & Yangyang Li & Min Liu, 2021. "Recycling Carbon Tax under Different Energy Efficiency Improvements: A CGE Analysis of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, April.
    7. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2022. "A review and analysis of renewable energy policies and CO2 emissions of Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helgesen, Per Ivar & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2018. "From linking to integration of energy system models and computational general equilibrium models – Effects on equilibria and convergence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1218-1233.
    2. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    3. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    4. Jing Zhu & Shenghong Kang & Wenwu Zhao & Qiujie Li & Xinyuan Xie & Xiangping Hu, 2020. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Food–Energy–Water Nexus: Progress and Prospects," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    6. Le Treut, Gaëlle & Lefèvre, Julien & Lallana, Francisco & Bravo, Gonzalo, 2021. "The multi-level economic impacts of deep decarbonization strategies for the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Andrea M. Bassi & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2021. "Modelling the European Union Sustainability Transition: A Soft-Linking Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-24, June.
    8. Diamantis Koutsandreas & Evangelos Spiliotis & Haris Doukas & John Psarras, 2021. "What Is the Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Decarbonization Speeds? The Case of Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, April.
    9. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Almutairi, Hossa & Aljarboua, Abdullah & Pierru, Axel & Pradhan, Shreekar & Murphy, Frederic, 2023. "Hard-linking a top-down economic model with a bottom-up energy system for an oil-exporting country with price controls," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    10. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2008. "Distributional impact of global warming environmental policies: A survey," Cahiers de recherche 08-14, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    11. Nishiura, Osamu & Krey, Volker & Fricko, Oliver & van Ruijven, Bas & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2024. "Integration of energy system and computable general equilibrium models: An approach complementing energy and economic representations for mitigation analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    12. Ajay Gambhir & Isabela Butnar & Pei-Hao Li & Pete Smith & Neil Strachan, 2019. "A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Fattahi, A. & Sijm, J. & Faaij, A., 2020. "A systemic approach to analyze integrated energy system modeling tools: A review of national models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Dorothee Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2011. "The Intra-country Distributional Impact of Policies to Fight Climate Change: A Survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 97-117.
    15. Pisciella, Paolo & van Beesten, E. Ruben & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2023. "Efficient coordination of top-down and bottom-up models for energy system design: An algorithmic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    16. Hanna, Richard & Gross, Robert, 2021. "How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    17. Xin Su & Frédéric Ghersi & Fei Teng & Gaëlle Treut & Meicong Liang, 2022. "The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-37, January.
    18. Jonas Zetterholm & Elina Bryngemark & Johan Ahlström & Patrik Söderholm & Simon Harvey & Elisabeth Wetterlund, 2020. "Economic Evaluation of Large-Scale Biorefinery Deployment: A Framework Integrating Dynamic Biomass Market and Techno-Economic Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-28, September.
    19. Rebecka Ericsdotter Engström & Georgia Destouni & Mark Howells & Vivek Ramaswamy & Holger Rogner & Morgan Bazilian, 2019. "Cross-Scale Water and Land Impacts of Local Climate and Energy Policy—A Local Swedish Analysis of Selected SDG Interactions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-28, March.
    20. Hemal Chowdhury & Tamal Chowdhury & Ayyoob Sharifi & Richard Corkish & Sadiq M. Sait, 2022. "Role of Biogas in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals in Rohingya Refugee Camps in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:19:p:8248-:d:424558. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.