IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i8p2216-d222307.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial Big Data Analysis of Political Risks along the Belt and Road

Author

Listed:
  • Chuchu Zhang

    (School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
    Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this study.)

  • Chaowei Xiao

    (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this study.)

  • Helin Liu

    (School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
    Smart Planning and Design Collaborative Innovation Research Center, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
    Hubei New Urbanization Engineering Technology Research Center, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

Abstract

As many regions along the Belt and Road have long been struggling with terrorist attacks, crimes, wars, and corruption, political risks pose important challenges for infrastructure projects and transnational investment. The objective of the article is to contribute to the identification of different types of political risks along the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, and the visualization of their micro-level spatial distribution based on the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) datasets from October 2013 to May 2018. By adopting the bivariate Moran’s I model to compare the distribution of political risks along the Belt and Road and that of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investment and construction projects based on data from the China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT), the article also generates an overall political risk profile for Chinese BRI projects. Our findings show that a particularly high percentage of Chinese BRI projects are distributed in regions with high political risks. This research has important implications for the discussion and study of the BRI. First, by combining geographic spatial statistical analysis and political science conceptual frameworks, we point out the necessity to query the BRI from interdisciplinary perspectives grounded in empirical research. Second, the research delivers to researchers, academics, practitioners, consultants and policy makers interested in the BRI the latest insights into the risks and challenges along the Belt and Road. Third, it advocates policies and strategies conducive to identifying, assessing and mitigating political risks in investment along the Belt and Road and to strengthening the sustainable development of the BRI.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuchu Zhang & Chaowei Xiao & Helin Liu, 2019. "Spatial Big Data Analysis of Political Risks along the Belt and Road," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:8:p:2216-:d:222307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/8/2216/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/8/2216/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haiyue Liu & Jie Jiang & Lei Zhang & Xiaolan Chen, 2018. "OFDI Agglomeration and Chinese Firm Location Decisions under the “Belt and Road” Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Jinghan Zeng, 2017. "Does Europe Matter? The Role of Europe in Chinese Narratives of ‘One Belt One Road’ and ‘New Type of Great Power Relations’," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(5), pages 1162-1176, September.
    3. C. Borghesi & J.-P. Bouchaud, 2010. "Spatial correlations in vote statistics: a diffusive field model for decision-making," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 75(3), pages 395-404, June.
    4. Sangsomboon Ploywarin & Yan Song & Dian Sun, 2018. "Research on Factors Affecting Public Risk Perception of Thai High-Speed Railway Projects Based on “Belt and Road Initiative”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.
    5. Lembke B., 1918. "√ a. p," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 111(1), pages 709-712, February.
    6. Chaowei Xiao & Chuchu Zhang, 2018. "Visualizing the spatio-temporal patterns of The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorist attacks from its early creation," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 50(3), pages 497-499, May.
    7. Shuo Wang & Junnian Song & Xian’En Wang & Wei Yang, 2019. "The Spatial and Temporal Research on the Coupling and Coordinated Relationship between Social Economy and Energy Environment in the Belt and Road Initiatives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chunyang Pan & William X. Wei & Etayankara Muralidharan & Jia Liao & Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan, 2020. "Does China’s Outward Direct Investment Improve the Institutional Quality of the Belt and Road Countries?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Wei Hu & Yue Shan & Yun Deng & Ningning Fu & Jian Duan & Haining Jiang & Jianzhen Zhang, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk Evolution and Obstacle Factors of Countries along the Belt and Road and Its Types Classification," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-24, January.
    3. Yuren Wang & Yitao Tao, 2024. "The effect of fluctuations in bilateral relations on trade: evidence from China and ASEAN countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Chunjiao Yu & Ren Zhang & Lian An & Zhixing Yu, 2020. "Has China’s Belt and Road Initiative Intensified Bilateral Trade Links between China and the Involved Countries?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Hui Shi & Zhen You & Zhiming Feng & Yanzhao Yang, 2019. "Numerical Simulation and Spatial Distribution of Transportation Accessibility in the Regions Involved in the Belt and Road Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Xiaohui Sun & Jianbo Gao & Bin Liu & Zhenzhen Wang, 2021. "Big Data-Based Assessment of Political Risk along the Belt and Road," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, April.
    7. Raphael Konde Kazungu & Ayyoob Sharifi, 2023. "Investigating Risks to the Implementation of the Great Equatorial Landbridge (GELB) Highway Project across Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sergei Rogosin & Maryna Dubatovskaya, 2017. "Letnikov vs. Marchaud: A Survey on Two Prominent Constructions of Fractional Derivatives," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. , Aisdl, 2019. "What Citizenship for What Transition?: Contradictions, Ambivalence, and Promises in Post-Socialist Citizenship Education in Vietnam," OSF Preprints jyqp5, Center for Open Science.
    3. Clarke, Matthew, 2011. "Innovative Delivery Mechanisms for Increased Aid Budgets," WIDER Working Paper Series 073, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Patrick E. Shea, 2016. "Borrowing Trouble: Sovereign Credit, Military Regimes, and Conflict," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 401-428, May.
    5. Valerio Antonelli & Raffaele D'Alessio & Roberto Rossi, 2014. "Budgetary practices in the Ministry of War and the Ministry of Munitions in Italy, 1915-1918," Accounting History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2-3), pages 139-160, November.
    6. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2012. "What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger? The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden," Working Paper Series 911, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    7. Roger R. Betancourt, 1969. "R. A. EASTERLIN. Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience. Pp. xx, 298. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research (Distributed by Columbia University P," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 384(1), pages 183-192, July.
    8. Ilan Noy & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2023. "The Japanese textile sector and the influenza pandemic of 1918–1920," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1192-1227, November.
    9. Singh, Nirupama & Kumari, Babita & Sharma, Shailja & Chaudhary, Surbhi & Upadhyay, Sumant & Satsangi, Vibha R. & Dass, Sahab & Shrivastav, Rohit, 2014. "Electrodeposition and sol–gel derived nanocrystalline N–ZnO thin films for photoelectrochemical splitting of water: Exploring the role of microstructure," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 242-252.
    10. Rathberger Andreas, 2014. "The “Piano Virtuosos” of International Politics: Informal Diplomacy in the late nineteenth and early twentieth Century Ottoman Empire," New Global Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 9-29, March.
    11. Seán Kenny & Jason Lennard & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2020. "An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800-1921," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _185, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Jyotirmoy Banerjee, 1995. "Indo-Russian Relations: The Cryogenic Rocket Deal ∗," Jadavpur Journal of International Relations, , vol. 1(1), pages 121-129, June.
    13. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2014. "The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    14. Kublik Walther, André, 2005. "Information and communication technology (ICT) for development of small and medium-sized exporters in Latin America: Colombia," Documentos de Proyectos 3677, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Radu Săgeată & Bianca Mitrică & Irena Mocanu, 2021. "Centralized Industrialization in the Memory of Places. Case Studies of Romanian Cities," Societies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, October.
    16. Markevich, Andrei & Harrison, Mark, 2011. "Great War, Civil War, and Recovery: Russia's National Income, 1913 to 1928," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 672-703, September.
    17. Victoria Y. Fan & Dean T. Jamison & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk," NBER Working Papers 22137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Tetsuji Okazaki, 2017. "Disentangling the Effects of Technological and Organizational Changes in the Rise of the Factory: The Case of the Japanese Fabric Industry, 1905-1914," CIGS Working Paper Series 17-006E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    19. Rubini, Lauretta & Pollio, Chiara & Spigarelli, Francesca & Lv, Ping, 2021. "Regional social context and FDI. An empirical investigation on Chinese acquisitions in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 402-415.
    20. Peter Willmott, 1969. "Some Social Trends," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 6(3), pages 286-308, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:8:p:2216-:d:222307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.