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What it took to catalyse uptake of dynamic adaptive pathways planning to address climate change uncertainty

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  • Lawrence, Judy
  • Haasnoot, Marjolijn

Abstract

Implementing climate-resilient pathways in conditions of uncertainty and change is a serious challenge. Approaches have been developed for this type of problem, one of which, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach (DAPP), has been applied in practice in a limited number of circumstances, mainly for large infrastructure projects and at national scales. To better understand what it takes to catalyse uptake of DAPP to better address uncertainty and change than typical static planning approaches, we examined the role of a simulation game facilitated by a knowledge broker, in a real-life local decision setting on flood risk management in New Zealand. Four intervention phases over four years are described and their influence analysed: 1) creating interest through framing the science, 2) increasing awareness using the Game, 3) experimenting with DAPP, and 4) uptake of DAPP. We found that a knowledge broker introducing new framing of changing risk profiles, facilitating use of the Game and the DAPP approach in a real-life decision making setting, with contextual support from events and (inter)national reports, catalysed the uptake of adaptive pathways planning. We identified enabling requirements necessary for embedding adaptive planning into decision-making practice for addressing uncertainty and change.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence, Judy & Haasnoot, Marjolijn, 2017. "What it took to catalyse uptake of dynamic adaptive pathways planning to address climate change uncertainty," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 47-57.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enscpo:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:47-57
    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.12.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoffer Carstens & Karin Mossberg Sonnek & Riitta Räty & Per Wikman-Svahn & Annika Carlsson-Kanyama & Jonathan Metzger, 2019. "Insights from Testing a Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Approach for Spatial Planning at the Municipal Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Mohamed A. Abdelhafez & Hussam N. Mahmoud & Bruce R. Ellingwood, 2024. "Adjusting to the reality of sea level rise: reshaping coastal communities through resilience-informed adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Yujin Jeong & Hyejin Jang & Byungun Yoon, 2021. "Developing a risk-adaptive technology roadmap using a Bayesian network and topic modeling under deep uncertainty," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 3697-3722, May.
    4. Robert-Jan Den Haan & Mascha C. Van der Voort, 2018. "On Evaluating Social Learning Outcomes of Serious Games to Collaboratively Address Sustainability Problems: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-26, December.
    5. Vizinho, André & Avelar, David & Fonseca, Ana Lúcia & Carvalho, Silvia & Sucena-Paiva, Leonor & Pinho, Pedro & Nunes, Alice & Branquinho, Cristina & Vasconcelos, Ana Cátia & Santos, Filipe Duarte & Ro, 2021. "Framing the application of Adaptation Pathways for agroforestry in Mediterranean drylands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Ryan Paulik & Scott A. Stephens & Robert G. Bell & Sanjay Wadhwa & Ben Popovich, 2020. "National-Scale Built-Environment Exposure to 100-Year Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Judy Lawrence & Robert Bell & Adolf Stroombergen, 2019. "A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand App," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Tina-Simone Neset & Sirkku Juhola & Lotten Wiréhn & Janina Käyhkö & Carlo Navarra & Therese Asplund & Erik Glaas & Victoria Wibeck & Björn-Ola Linnér, 2020. "Supporting Dialogue and Analysis on Trade-Offs in Climate Adaptation Research With the Maladaptation Game," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 51(3), pages 378-399, June.
    9. Fekete, Alexander & Fuchs, Sven & Garschagen, Matthias & Hutter, Gérard & Klepp, Silja & Lüder, Catharina & Neise, Thomas & Sett, Dominic & von Elverfeldt, Kirsten & Wannewitz, Mia, 2022. "Adjustment or transformation? Disaster risk intervention examples from Austria, Indonesia, Kiribati and South Africa," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Mark Zandvoort & Nora Kooijmans & Paul Kirshen & Adri van den Brink, 2019. "Designing with Pathways: A Spatial Design Approach for Adaptive and Sustainable Landscapes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, January.
    11. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    12. Marjolijn Haasnoot & Maaike Aalst & Julie Rozenberg & Kathleen Dominique & John Matthews & Laurens M. Bouwer & Jarl Kind & N. LeRoy Poff, 2020. "Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 451-463, August.
    13. Babaeian, Fariba & Delavar, Majid & Morid, Saeed & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2021. "Robust climate change adaptation pathways in agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    14. Théophile Bongarts Lebbe & Hélène Rey-Valette & Éric Chaumillon & Guigone Camus & Rafael Almar & Anny Cazenave & Joachim Claudet & Nicolas Rocle & Catherine Meur-Ferec & Frédérique Viard & Denis Merci, 2021. "Designing coastal adaptation strategies to tackle sea level rise," Post-Print hal-03412421, HAL.
    15. Joop de Kraker & Astrid Offermans & Merel M. van der Wal, 2021. "Game-Based Social Learning for Socially Sustainable Water Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, April.
    16. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Robust decision making and Epoch–Era analysis: A comparison of two robustness frameworks for decision-making under uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Nicholas A. Cradock-Henry & Bob Frame & Benjamin L. Preston & Andy Reisinger & Dale S. Rothman, 2018. "Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 333-341, October.

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