IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i16p4259-d255385.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploration of Sustainable Urban Transportation Development in China through the Forecast of Private Vehicle Ownership

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Li

    (School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China)

  • Lu Miao

    (China Center for Special Economic Zone Research, Shenzhen University, Nanhai Ave 3688, Shenzhen 518060, China)

  • Ying Chen

    (Department of Gardens, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China)

  • Yike Hu

    (School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China)

Abstract

With the acceleration of China’s urbanization process, the urban transportation problem has become increasingly serious. The rapid expansion of private vehicle ownership, in particular, has become one of the barriers to the realization of sustainable urban transition. This paper applied the Gompertz model to analyze the non-linear relationship between private vehicle ownership and per capita GDP in China using provincial data. In addition, we forecasted private vehicle ownership for 31 Chinese provinces for the period of 2019–2030 and predicted the time to reach the upper limit of 1000 people vehicle ownership of each province according to different scenarios. The main findings revealed that the number of private vehicles owned in China’s provinces was in line with “S”-shaped development and was currently in the process of accelerated growth. Under the scenario of an annual per capita GDP growth rate of 6%, China’s private vehicle ownership will reach 246 million, 375 million, and 475 million in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively. This indicates that China’s expansion of private vehicle ownership will generate significant challenges, such as on-road vehicle-related fossil fuel consumption, pollutant emissions, traffic congestion, and scrapped vehicle recycling. These issues will become increasingly prominent. In provinces such as Hubei, Hebei, Hunan, and other central provinces that have a 50–60% urbanization rate, the large potential for income promotion will significantly stimulate the increase in private vehicle ownership, and the upper limit of 1000 people vehicle ownership in each province will be reached in 2032, 2037, and 2046 with annual per capita GDP growth rates of 8%, 6%, and 4%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Li & Lu Miao & Ying Chen & Yike Hu, 2019. "Exploration of Sustainable Urban Transportation Development in China through the Forecast of Private Vehicle Ownership," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:16:p:4259-:d:255385
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/16/4259/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/16/4259/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Biao, 2007. "The Use of Pseudo Panel Data for Forecasting Car Ownership," MPRA Paper 7086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Zhang, Zhao & Jin, Wen & Jiang, Hai & Xie, Qianyan & Shen, Wei & Han, Weijian, 2017. "Modeling heterogeneous vehicle ownership in China: A case study based on the Chinese national survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-20.
    3. Dongquan He & Fei Meng & Michael Q. Wang & Kebin He, 2011. "Impacts of Urban Transportation Mode Split on CO 2 Emissions in Jinan, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Wang, Yunshi & Teter, Jacob & Sperling, Daniel, 2012. "Will China's Vehicle Population Grow Even Faster than Forecasted?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1ct459b7, University of California Transportation Center.
    5. Lin, Boqiang & Du, Zhili, 2015. "How China׳s urbanization impacts transport energy consumption in the face of income disparity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1693-1701.
    6. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 17-29.
    7. Tian Wu & Hongmei Zhao & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-23, August.
    8. Du, Zhili & Lin, Boqiang, 2019. "Changes in automobile energy consumption during urbanization: Evidence from 279 cities in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 309-317.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philip Krummeck & Yagmur Damla Dokur & Daniel Braun & Steffen Kiemel & Robert Miehe, 2022. "Designing Component Interfaces for the Circular Economy—A Case Study for Product-As-A-Service Business Models in the Automotive Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Yang Li & Shiyu Huang & Yanhui Liu & Yiyi Ju, 2021. "Recycling Potential of Plastic Resources from End-of-Life Passenger Vehicles in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Miroslav Vujić & Martin Gregurić & Luka Dedić & Daniela Koltovska Nečoska, 2023. "The Impact of Unconditional Priority for Escorted Vehicles in Traffic Networks on Sustainable Urban Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Cayetano Medina-Molina & María de la Sierra Rey-Tienda & Eva María Suárez-Redondo, 2022. "The Transition of Cities towards Innovations in Mobility: Searching for a Global Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Yang Li & Kiyoshi Fujikawa & Junbo Wang & Xin Li & Yiyi Ju & Chenyi Chen, 2020. "The Potential and Trend of End-Of-Life Passenger Vehicles Recycling in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, February.
    6. Qian Wang & Xiaolong Yang & Xiaoyu Yu & Jingwen Yun & Jinbo Zhang, 2023. "Electric Vehicle Participation in Regional Grid Demand Response: Potential Analysis Model and Architecture Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, February.
    7. Maryam Feyzollahi & Pierre-Olivier Pineau & Nima Rafizadeh, 2024. "Drivers of Driving: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-41, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jie Ma & Xin Ye & Cheng Shi, 2018. "Development of Multivariate Ordered Probit Model to Understand Household Vehicle Ownership Behavior in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Ziru Feng & Tian Cai & Kangli Xiang & Chenxi Xiang & Lei Hou, 2019. "Evaluating the Impact of Fossil Fuel Vehicle Exit on the Oil Demand in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-18, July.
    3. Peng, Tianduo & Ou, Xunmin & Yuan, Zhiyi & Yan, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Xiliang, 2018. "Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand and GHG emissions analysis model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 313-328.
    4. Tian Wu & Mengbo Zhang & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.
    5. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2020. "The Influence of the Spread of Automatic Control and Sharing Technologies on Motorization Processes: Concept, Calculation Scheme, Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 254-263, May.
    6. Tian Wu & Hongmei Zhao & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-23, August.
    7. Isabella Yunfei Zeng & Jingrui Chen & Ziheng Niu & Qingfei Liu & Tian Wu, 2022. "The GHG Emissions Assessment of Online Car-Hailing Development under the Intervention of Evaluation Policies in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-25, February.
    8. Yang, Zhenshan & Jia, Peng & Liu, Weidong & Yin, Hongchun, 2017. "Car ownership and urban development in Chinese cities: A panel data analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 127-134.
    9. Lian Lian & Wen Tian & Hongfeng Xu & Menglan Zheng, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Passenger Car Ownership Based on Symbolic Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    10. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2018. "The Automobilization Process and Its Determining Factors in the Past, Present, and Future," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 406-414, July.
    11. Yang Li & Shiyu Huang & Yanhui Liu & Yiyi Ju, 2021. "Recycling Potential of Plastic Resources from End-of-Life Passenger Vehicles in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-15, September.
    12. Lin Ma & Manhua Wu & Xiujuan Tian & Guanheng Zheng & Qinchuan Du & Tian Wu, 2019. "China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-26, July.
    13. Zhang, Qi & Xu, Jin & Wang, Yujie & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Zhang, Wei & Lu, Hongyou & Arens, Marlene, 2018. "Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation in China’s iron and steel industry based on dynamic material flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 251-265.
    14. Zeng, Yuan & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe & Wang, Yi & Xu, Baoguang, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions of motor vehicles in Chinese cities and the implication for China’s mitigation targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1016-1025.
    15. Zheng, Bo & Zhang, Qiang & Borken-Kleefeld, Jens & Huo, Hong & Guan, Dabo & Klimont, Zbigniew & Peters, Glen P. & He, Kebin, 2015. "How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 230-240.
    16. Qodri Febrilian Erahman & Nadhilah Reyseliani & Widodo Wahyu Purwanto & Mahmud Sudibandriyo, 2019. "Modeling Future Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions of Passenger Cars in Indonesia at the Provincial Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-25, August.
    17. Du, Limin & Hanley, Aoife & Wei, Chu, 2015. "Estimating the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve of CO2 Emissions in China: Provincial Panel Data Analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 217-229.
    18. Yuan, Zhiyi & Ou, Xunmin & Peng, Tianduo & Yan, Xiaoyu, 2019. "Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of multi-pathways natural gas vehicles in china considering methane leakage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Xiaowei Song & Yongpei Hao, 2019. "Vehicular Emission Inventory and Reduction Scenario Analysis in the Yangtze River Delta, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-21, November.
    20. Hong Huo & Bo Zheng & Michael Wang & Qiang Zhang & Ke-Bin He, 2015. "Vehicular air pollutant emissions in China: evaluation of past control policies and future perspectives," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 719-733, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:16:p:4259-:d:255385. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.