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China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend

Author

Listed:
  • Lin Ma

    (School of Banking & Finance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Manhua Wu

    (School of Banking & Finance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Xiujuan Tian

    (School of Banking & Finance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Guanheng Zheng

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Qinchuan Du

    (Academy of Macroeconomic Research, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Tian Wu

    (NCMIS, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
    School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
    Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)

Abstract

The growth of vehicle ownership not only brings opportunity for the economy, but also brings environment and transport problems, which is not good for sustainable transportation. It is of great significance to build supporting infrastructure and other services based on accurate forecasts of vehicle ownership in various provinces because of the variance of economic development stages, the carrying capacity of resources, and different degrees of transport planning in each province. We used the Gompertz model in order to predict China’s provincial vehicle ownership from 2018 to 2050. Considering the impact of the population structure, we summed up the growth rate of GDP per labor, the growth rate of population and the growth rate of employment rate to get the growth rate of GDP and then the GDP per capita of each province. We found that the vehicle ownership in each province will grow rapidly in the next 30 years; however, the change in the ranking of vehicle ownership among provinces varies. The ranking of some provinces with high or middle ranking now will decline in the following years, especially Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Xinjiang. While the ranking of some provinces that locates in the middle and low ranking now will increase, such as Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangxi. We also investigate the reasons that affect the trend in each province and we find that the suitable vehicle growth pattern of each province, the stage of economic development and government policy, which are related to the growth rate of GDP per labor, employment rate, and GDP per capita, can affect vehicle ownership in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Ma & Manhua Wu & Xiujuan Tian & Guanheng Zheng & Qinchuan Du & Tian Wu, 2019. "China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-26, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:14:p:3928-:d:249712
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