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Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China

Author

Listed:
  • Meng Wang

    (School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800, China)

  • Xiaofang Sun

    (School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800, China)

  • Zemeng Fan

    (Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Tianxiang Yue

    (Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

Abstract

Cropland loss resulting from land use change has drawn great attention in China due to the threat to food security. However, little is known about future magnitude and quality of cropland of China. In this study, the dynamic conversion of land use and its effects model (Dyna-CLUE) together with the Markov model and the potential yield data were used to simulate the influence of land use change on cropland quality in the next two decades under three scenarios. The results indicate that, under the trend scenario, the high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase between 2015 and 2030. The crop yield would decrease by 1.3 × 10 9 kg. Under planned scenario, high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase, and total crop yield would stay almost unchanged. Under the cropland protection scenario, the high-yield cropland would reduce slightly, and the medium-yield and low-yield cropland would increase substantially. The crop yield would increase by 5.36 × 10 10 kg. The result of this study will help decision-makers to develop reasonable land use policies to achieve the goals of harmonious development between food security, economic growth, and environmental protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng Wang & Xiaofang Sun & Zemeng Fan & Tianxiang Yue, 2019. "Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:12:p:3327-:d:240274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Xiaofang Sun & Chao Yu & Junbang Wang & Meng Wang, 2020. "The Intensity Analysis of Production Living Ecological Land in Shandong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-17, October.

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