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Policies and Predictions for a Low-Carbon Transition by 2050 in Passenger Vehicles in East Asia: Based on an Analysis Using the E3ME-FTT Model

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  • Aileen Lam

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Macao, E21, Taipa, Macau, China
    Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge CB31EP, UK)

  • Soocheol Lee

    (Faculty of Economics, Meijo University, 501 Shiogamaguchi, Tenparku, Nagoya 468-0073, Japan)

  • Jean-François Mercure

    (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge CB31EP, UK
    Department of Environmental Science, Radbound University, 6500 GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands
    Department of International Modelling, Cambridge Econometrics, Covent Garden, Cambridge CB12HT, UK)

  • Yongsung Cho

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, Korea University, Korea Center for Green Economy, Anamdong, Seoul 02841, Korea)

  • Chun-Hsu Lin

    (Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, Taipei 1106, Taiwan)

  • Hector Pollitt

    (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge CB31EP, UK
    Department of International Modelling, Cambridge Econometrics, Covent Garden, Cambridge CB12HT, UK)

  • Unnada Chewpreecha

    (Department of International Modelling, Cambridge Econometrics, Covent Garden, Cambridge CB12HT, UK)

  • Sophie Billington

    (Department of International Modelling, Cambridge Econometrics, Covent Garden, Cambridge CB12HT, UK)

Abstract

In this paper we apply a model of technological diffusion, Future Technology Transformations in the Transport Sector (FTT: Transport), linked to the E3ME macroeconomic model, to study possible future technological transitions in personal passenger transport in four East Asian countries. We assess how targeted policies could impact on these transitions by defining four scenarios based on policies that aim to reduce emissions from transport. For each country we find that an integrated approach of tax incentives, subsidies, regulations (fuel economy efficiency), kick-start programs and biofuel programs yield the most significant emission reductions because, when combined, they accelerate effectively the diffusion of electric vehicles in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Aileen Lam & Soocheol Lee & Jean-François Mercure & Yongsung Cho & Chun-Hsu Lin & Hector Pollitt & Unnada Chewpreecha & Sophie Billington, 2018. "Policies and Predictions for a Low-Carbon Transition by 2050 in Passenger Vehicles in East Asia: Based on an Analysis Using the E3ME-FTT Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-32, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:5:p:1612-:d:146955
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    References listed on IDEAS

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