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Modeling and Simulation of the Future Impacts of Urban Land Use Change on the Natural Environment by SLEUTH and Cluster Analysis

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  • Hsing-Fu Kuo

    (Department of Urban Planning and Landscape, National Quemoy University, Kinmen County 892, Taiwan)

  • Ko-Wan Tsou

    (Department of Urban Planning, National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan City 701, Taiwan)

Abstract

Changing land use and urban expansion are key drivers of global environmental change, which are inevitable consequences of economic and social development for many cities. Most land use changes have a negative impact on the natural environment, especially due to their effects on surface temperature, runoff and habitat diversity. Due to the limitation of local government funding and expenditure, it is a challenge for developing countries to create strategies for urban sustainability. This study provided a systematic assessment method for simulating and analyzing the future impacts and spatial patterns of urban growth via cellular automata and cluster analysis. We used Tainan as a study area and compared the impact of future urban spatial development during two periods: 1993–2008 and 2008–2030. The results indicate that the impact of this development on the natural environment can be divided into six clusters. With an increased distance from the city center, there were increased changes in surface temperature and a decreased amount of runoff. These results indicate the occurrence of urban expansion, with habitat diversity being greater in areas governed by policies or ordinances.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsing-Fu Kuo & Ko-Wan Tsou, 2017. "Modeling and Simulation of the Future Impacts of Urban Land Use Change on the Natural Environment by SLEUTH and Cluster Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2017:i:1:p:72-:d:124753
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Lizhong Hua & Lina Tang & Shenghui Cui & Kai Yin, 2014. "Simulating Urban Growth Using the SLEUTH Model in a Coastal Peri-Urban District in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-16, June.
    5. Yousef Sakieh & Bahman Amiri & Afshin Danekar & Jahangir Feghhi & Sadeq Dezhkam, 2015. "Scenario-based evaluation of urban development sustainability: an integrative modeling approach to compromise between urbanization suitability index and landscape pattern," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(6), pages 1343-1365, December.
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    7. Taher Osman & Prasanna Divigalpitiya & Takafumi Arima, 2016. "Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on land use in the Giza Governorate, Greater Cairo Metropolitan region," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 407-426, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivanize Silva & Rafael Santos & António Lopes & Virgínia Araújo, 2018. "Morphological Indices as Urban Planning Tools in Northeastern Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, November.

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