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Scenario-based evaluation of urban development sustainability: an integrative modeling approach to compromise between urbanization suitability index and landscape pattern

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  • Yousef Sakieh
  • Bahman Amiri
  • Afshin Danekar
  • Jahangir Feghhi
  • Sadeq Dezhkam

Abstract

Sustainability analysis of urban complex systems, as an interdisciplinary study, necessitates integrative modeling approaches for analyzing relationships between land parameters and landscape patterns. The present paper emphasizes applicability of dynamic and scenario-based investigation of urban environments for understanding the interactions between urbanization suitability and landscape pattern. Combining parameter modification and model integration approaches for introducing growth alternatives, a basis was established for detailed assessment of the Karaj urban context, Iran. SLEUTH’s probabilistic images of future urbanized lands of two growth scenarios (historical trend-based urban growth and compact urban growth) were simultaneously employed as dynamic factors for urbanization suitability mapping and landscape pattern analysis of the years 2011, 2020, 2030 and 2040. Findings of the present studies showed while historical trend-based urban expansion occupied more land resources, this growth option resulted in a more manageable pattern of urban landscape in terms of its connectivity and compactness as well as possessing higher urbanization suitability index across the study time frame. This study addresses utility of scenario-based analysis of urban areas that furnishes urban planners with insights into cumulative impacts of an ongoing urbanization process under different environmental circumstances. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Yousef Sakieh & Bahman Amiri & Afshin Danekar & Jahangir Feghhi & Sadeq Dezhkam, 2015. "Scenario-based evaluation of urban development sustainability: an integrative modeling approach to compromise between urbanization suitability index and landscape pattern," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(6), pages 1343-1365, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:17:y:2015:i:6:p:1343-1365
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-014-9609-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Commission on Environment and Development,, 1987. "Our Common Future," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192820808.
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    1. Basu, Tirthankar & Das, Arijit & Das, Ketan & Pereira, Paulo, 2023. "Urban expansion induced loss of natural vegetation cover and ecosystem service values: A scenario-based study in the siliguri municipal corporation (Gateway of North-East India)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Linze Li & Nana Yang & Jiansong Li & Ankang He & Huan Yang & Zilong Jiang & Yumin Zhao, 2021. "Exploring the interactive coupled relationship between urban construction and resource environment in Wuhan, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11179-11200, August.
    3. Wenyuan Hao & Zhenzhu Cao & Shengya Ou & Yi Qin & Zhongbin Wang & Shuang Yang & Damien Sinonmatohou Tiando & Xin Fan, 2023. "A Simulation Analysis of Land Use Changes in the Yarlung Zangbo River and Its Two Tributaries of Tibet Using the Markov–PLUS Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Pingxing Li & Jinlong Gao & Jianglong Chen, 2020. "Quantitative assessment of ecological stress of construction lands by quantity and location: case study in Southern Jiangsu, Eastern China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1559-1578, February.
    5. Sajida Perveen & Md. Kamruzzaman & Tan Yigitcanlar, 2017. "Developing Policy Scenarios for Sustainable Urban Growth Management: A Delphi Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-27, October.
    6. Hsing-Fu Kuo & Ko-Wan Tsou, 2017. "Modeling and Simulation of the Future Impacts of Urban Land Use Change on the Natural Environment by SLEUTH and Cluster Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.

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