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A Bayesian Approach to Predict the Number of Goals in Hockey

Author

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  • Abdolnasser Sadeghkhani

    (Department of Mathematics, Brock University, St. Catharines, ON L2S 3A1, Canada)

  • Seyed Ejaz Ahmed

    (Department of Mathematics, Brock University, St. Catharines, ON L2S 3A1, Canada)

Abstract

In this paper, we use a Bayesian methodology to analyze the outcome of a hockey game using different sources of information, such as points in previous games, home advantage, and specialists’ opinions. Two different models to predict the number of goals are considered, taking into account that it is the nature of hockey that goals are infrequent and rarely exceed six per team per game. A Bayesian predictive density to predict the number of the goals using each model will be used and the possible winner of the game will be predicted. The corresponding prediction error for each model will be addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdolnasser Sadeghkhani & Seyed Ejaz Ahmed, 2019. "A Bayesian Approach to Predict the Number of Goals in Hockey," Stats, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-11, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jstats:v:2:y:2019:i:2:p:17-238:d:224760
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Galit Shmueli & Thomas P. Minka & Joseph B. Kadane & Sharad Borle & Peter Boatwright, 2005. "A useful distribution for fitting discrete data: revival of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(1), pages 127-142, January.
    2. Gramacy Robert B. & Jensen Shane T. & Taddy Matt, 2013. "Estimating player contribution in hockey with regularized logistic regression," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 97-111, March.
    3. A K Suzuki & L E B Salasar & J G Leite & F Louzada-Neto, 2010. "A Bayesian approach for predicting match outcomes: The 2006 (Association) Football World Cup," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(10), pages 1530-1539, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdolnasser Sadeghkhani, 2022. "On Improving the Posterior Predictive Distribution of the Difference Between two Independent Poisson Distribution," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 84(2), pages 765-777, November.

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