Exchangeability and the law of maturity
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1007/s11238-014-9441-4
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010.
"The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 730-778.
- Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2007. "The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies:Theory and Applications," FMG Discussion Papers dp578, Financial Markets Group.
- Rabin, Matthew & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2007. "The gambler's and hot-hand fallacies: theory and applications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24476, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Vayanos, Dimitri & Rabin, Matthew, 2007. "The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Galit Shmueli & Thomas P. Minka & Joseph B. Kadane & Sharad Borle & Peter Boatwright, 2005. "A useful distribution for fitting discrete data: revival of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(1), pages 127-142, January.
- Max Mendel, 1994. "Operational parameters in Bayesian models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 3(2), pages 195-206, December.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:5:p:326-334 is not listed on IDEAS
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano, 2019. "Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives to Random Bernoulli Sequences," Papers 1908.01406, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
- Gauss Cordeiro & Josemar Rodrigues & Mário Castro, 2012. "The exponential COM-Poisson distribution," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 653-664, August.
- Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2019. "A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: The Principle of Restricted Choice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 144-162, Summer.
- Stöckl, Thomas & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Lindner, Florian, 2015.
"Hot hand and gambler's fallacy in teams: Evidence from investment experiments,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 327-339.
- Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner, 2013. "Hot Hand and Gambler's Fallacy in Teams: Evidence from Investment Experiments," Working Papers 2013-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
- Darcy Steeg Morris & Kimberly F. Sellers, 2022. "A Flexible Mixed Model for Clustered Count Data," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
- Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "How Experience Confirms the Gambler's Fallacy when Sample Size is Neglected," OSF Preprints m5xsk, Center for Open Science.
- Mirko Kremer & Laurens Debo, 2016. "Inferring Quality from Wait Time," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(10), pages 3023-3038, October.
- David Hirshleifer & Ming Jian & Huai Zhang, 2018.
"Superstition and Financial Decision Making,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(1), pages 235-252, January.
- Hirshleifer, David & Jian, Ming & Zhang, Huai, 2014. "Superstition and financial decision making," MPRA Paper 58620, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Imelda Trejo & Nicolas W Hengartner, 2022. "A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-23, February.
- Lord, Dominique & Mannering, Fred, 2010. "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 291-305, June.
- Dexter Cahoy & Elvira Di Nardo & Federico Polito, 2021. "Flexible models for overdispersed and underdispersed count data," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2969-2990, December.
- Krivitsky, Pavel N., 2017. "Using contrastive divergence to seed Monte Carlo MLE for exponential-family random graph models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 149-161.
- Roger K. Loh & Mitch Warachka, 2012. "Streaks in Earnings Surprises and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1305-1321, July.
- Si Chen, 2022. "Information and dynamic trading with the Gambler’s fallacy," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 16, number 1, February.
- Kai Barron, 2021.
"Belief updating: does the ‘good-news, bad-news’ asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?,"
Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 31-58, March.
- Barron, Kai, 2021. "Belief updating: does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 31-58.
- Barron, Kai, 2016. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
- Barron, Kai, 2019. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309r, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, revised 2019.
- Barron, Kai, 2019. "Belief Updating: Does the \'Good-News, Bad-News\' Asymmetry Extend to Purely Financial Domains?," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 170, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
- Barron, Kai, 2020. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309r2, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, revised 2020.
- Barron, Kai, 2018. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," MPRA Paper 84742, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jia, Z. Tingting & McMahon, Matthew J., 2020. "Being watched in an investment game setting: Behavioral changes when making risky decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
- Victor Stango & Joanne Yoong & Jonathan Zinman, 2017.
"Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions,"
NBER Working Papers
23625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Stango & Joanne Yoong & Jonathan Zinman, 2018. "Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions," Working Papers wp378, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Sellers, Kimberly F. & Raim, Andrew, 2016. "A flexible zero-inflated model to address data dispersion," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 68-80.
- Andrei Shleifer, 2012.
"Psychologists at the Gate: A Review of Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1080-1091, December.
- Andrei Shleifer, "undated". "Psychologists at the Gate: Review of Daniel Kahneman?s Thinking, Fast and Slow," Working Paper 69731, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Alex Bryson & Babatunde Buraimo & Alex Farnell & Rob Simmons, 2021.
"Time To Go? Head Coach Quits and Dismissals in Professional Football,"
De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 81-105, February.
- Alex Bryson & Babatunde Buraimo & Rob Simmons, 2017. "Time To Go? Head Coach Quits and Dismissals in Professional Football," DoQSS Working Papers 17-07, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.
- Alex Bryson & Babatunde Buraimo & Alex Farnell & Rob Simmons, 2020. "Time To Go? Head Coach Quits and Dismissals in Professional Football," Working Papers 202011, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
- Buraimo, Babatunde & Bryson, Alex & Simmons, Rob, 2017. "Time To Go? Head Coach Quits and Dismissals in Professional Football," IZA Discussion Papers 10600, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
More about this item
Keywords
Law of maturity; Exchangeability; Gambler’s fallacy; Belief in maturity; Bayesian statistics; 0–1 Process;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:78:y:2015:i:4:p:603-615. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.