Merkel Government’s Refugee Policy: Under Bounded Rationality

As the country hosting the most significant number of refugees in Europe, Germany’s Merkel government’s refugee policy has been repeatedly adjusted and plagued by inconsistencies and management failures. What factors have influenced the formation of the Merkel government’s refugee policy and its two shifts? The traditional rational decision-making model does not effectively explain government decisions’ motivation in complex challenges. This article develops a framework for analyzing “bounded rational decision-making”. It identifies the three factors that influenced the Merkel government’s refugee policy: (a) strict border controls, (b) welcome culture, and (c) welcome culture under restrained policies. It explains the process and logic of their development. Based on the theory of “bounded rational decision making”, the article examines the “key events and problem identification”, “goal selection”, “national interests”, and “political psychology”. We found that in the early stages of the refugee crisis, (a) public opinions and pressure, (b) the pursuit of a positive national image, and (c) a shift in the leader’s psychology led Merkel to shift away from a pragmatic and rational course. These factors led to the first shift in German refugee policy from “hesitation” to a “welcoming culture”. At the end of 2015, however, the shortcomings of the irrational policy were quickly revealed, and the frequency of refugee-related social problems reversed German public opinion, forcing Merkel’s government to seek a balance between humanitarianism and national interests. As a result, refugee policy was adjusted for the second time, returning to a strict refugee examination system. The development of the Merkel government’s refugee policy exposed the shortcomings of the traditional crisis decision-making model. Moreover, it provided a new perspective for rethinking the governance of the refugee crisis.