IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v9y2021i1p12-d473953.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Predictive Analysis of Natural Disaster Losses

Author

Listed:
  • Min Deng

    (Department of Mathematics, Towson University, Towson, MD 21252, USA)

  • Mostafa Aminzadeh

    (Department of Mathematics, Towson University, Towson, MD 21252, USA)

  • Min Ji

    (Department of Mathematics, Towson University, Towson, MD 21252, USA)

Abstract

Different types of natural events hit the United States every year. The data of natural hazards from 1900 to 2016 in the US shows that there is an increasing trend in annul natural disaster losses after 1980. Climate change is recognized as one of the factors causing this trend, and predictive analysis of natural losses becomes important in loss prediction and risk prevention as this trend continues. In this paper, we convert natural disaster losses to the year 2016 dollars using yearly average Consumers Price Index (CPI), and conduct several tests to verify that the CPI adjusted amounts of loss from individual natural disasters are independent and identically distributed. Based on these test results, we use various model selection quantities to find the best model for the natural loss severity among three composite distributions, namely Exponential-Pareto, Inverse Gamma-Pareto, and Lognormal-Pareto. These composite distributions model piecewise small losses with high frequency and large losses with low frequency. Remarkably, we make the first attempt to derive analytical Bayesian estimate of the Lognormal-Pareto distribution based on the selected priors, and show that the Lognormal-Pareto distribution outperforms the other two composite distributions in modeling natural disaster losses. Important risk measures for natural disasters are thereafter derived and discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Min Deng & Mostafa Aminzadeh & Min Ji, 2021. "Bayesian Predictive Analysis of Natural Disaster Losses," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:1:p:12-:d:473953
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/1/12/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/1/12/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Levi, & Partrat, Christian, 1991. "Statistical Analysis of Natural Events in the United States," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 253-276, November.
    2. Abu Bakar, S.A. & Hamzah, N.A. & Maghsoudi, M. & Nadarajah, S., 2015. "Modeling loss data using composite models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 146-154.
    3. M. S. Aminzadeh & M. Deng, 2019. "Bayesian predictive modeling for Inverse Gamma-Pareto composite distribution," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(8), pages 1938-1954, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bowen Liu & Malwane M. A. Ananda, 2022. "A Generalized Family of Exponentiated Composite Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Min Deng & Mostafa S. Aminzadeh, 2023. "Bayesian Inference for the Loss Models via Mixture Priors," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-27, August.
    3. Muhammad Hilmi Abdul Majid & Kamarulzaman Ibrahim & Nurulkamal Masseran, 2023. "Three-Part Composite Pareto Modelling for Income Distribution in Malaysia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-15, June.
    4. Carmine Franco & Luc Dumontier, 2024. "Modelling capacity for systematic equity strategies," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 407-416, July.
    5. Chen, Zezhun & Dassios, Angelos & Tzougas, George, 2022. "EM estimation for the bivariate mixed exponential regression model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115132, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Keighley, Tim & Longden, Thomas & Mathew, Supriya & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Quantifying Catastrophic and Climate Impacted Hazards Based on Local Expert Opinions," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 189171, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Wang, Xingchun, 2019. "Valuation of new-designed contracts for catastrophe risk management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Burnecki, Krzysztof & Giuricich, Mario Nicoló & Palmowski, Zbigniew, 2019. "Valuation of contingent convertible catastrophe bonds — The case for equity conversion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 238-254.
    9. Miljkovic, Tatjana & Grün, Bettina, 2016. "Modeling loss data using mixtures of distributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 387-396.
    10. Shi, Yue & Punzo, Antonio & Otneim, Håkon & Maruotti, Antonello, 2023. "Hidden semi-Markov models for rainfall-related insurance claims," Discussion Papers 2023/17, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    11. Reynkens, Tom & Verbelen, Roel & Beirlant, Jan & Antonio, Katrien, 2017. "Modelling censored losses using splicing: A global fit strategy with mixed Erlang and extreme value distributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 65-77.
    12. Jackie Li & Jia Liu, 2023. "Claims Modelling with Three-Component Composite Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    13. Zoia, Maria Grazia & Biffi, Paola & Nicolussi, Federica, 2018. "Value at risk and expected shortfall based on Gram-Charlier-like expansions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 92-104.
    14. Muhammad Hilmi Abdul Majid & Kamarulzaman Ibrahim, 2021. "On Bayesian approach to composite Pareto models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-22, September.
    15. Wang, Xingchun, 2020. "Catastrophe equity put options with floating strike prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Dewitte, Ruben, 2020. "From Heavy-Tailed Micro to Macro: on the characterization of firm-level heterogeneity and its aggregation properties," MPRA Paper 103170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ahmed Z. Afify & Ahmed M. Gemeay & Noor Akma Ibrahim, 2020. "The Heavy-Tailed Exponential Distribution: Risk Measures, Estimation, and Application to Actuarial Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-28, August.
    18. Bhati, Deepesh & Ravi, Sreenivasan, 2018. "On generalized log-Moyal distribution: A new heavy tailed size distribution," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 247-259.
    19. Deepesh Bhati & Enrique Calderín-Ojeda & Mareeswaran Meenakshi, 2019. "A New Heavy Tailed Class of Distributions Which Includes the Pareto," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-17, September.
    20. Ruben Dewitte & Michel Dumont & Glenn Rayp & Peter Willemé, 2022. "Unobserved heterogeneity in the productivity distribution and gains from trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(3), pages 1566-1597, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:1:p:12-:d:473953. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.