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Optimal Structure of Real Estate Portfolio Using EVA: A Stochastic Markowitz Model Using Data from Greek Real Estate Market

Author

Listed:
  • Theofanis Petropoulos

    (Department of Economic & Regional Development, Panteion University, 17671 Athens, Greece)

  • Konstantinos Liapis

    (Department of Economic & Regional Development, Panteion University, 17671 Athens, Greece)

  • Eleftherios Thalassinos

    (Faculty of Maritime and Industrial Studies, University of Piraeus, 18534 Piraeus, Greece
    Faculty of Economics, Management and Accountancy, University of Malta, 2080 Msida, Malta)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of portfolio optimization. Optimization consists of minimizing the risk for a given rate of return or achieving a bigger return for a given level of risk. We use historical data from the Bank of Greece to calculate the net return and the standard deviation (std) for each type of property that is available. The objective is to maximize the economic value added (EVA) of a property’s assets portfolio under a specific rate of standard deviation, following the classic Markowitz model (M-V). The stochastic procedure entry in the model uses the Monte Carlo Simulation method with debt to equity (DTE) following PERT distribution for the portfolio’s invested budget, and the net return for the normal distribution with the mean of the expected return and std are taken from historical data, correspondingly. The returns verify that they follow the base assumption of normality through the Lilliefors test in the Greek real estate market. We observe the maximization of EVA and the expected return maximizing concurrently, but the minimizing risk of EVA is diversified with the minimization of portfolio risk. We observe that the max weight that a residential asset takes is 22.7% because a bigger percent reduces both mean and std. The study provides an explicit portfolio optimization procedure under uncertainty in the real estate market and enriches the academic debate about EVA and revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Theofanis Petropoulos & Konstantinos Liapis & Eleftherios Thalassinos, 2023. "Optimal Structure of Real Estate Portfolio Using EVA: A Stochastic Markowitz Model Using Data from Greek Real Estate Market," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:11:y:2023:i:2:p:43-:d:1066030
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Konstantinos J. Liapis & Manolis S. Christofakis & Harris G. Papacharalampous, 2011. "A new evaluation procedure in real estate projects," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 280-296, April.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Konstantinos J. Liapis, 2010. "The Residual Value Models: A Framework for Business Administration," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 83-102.
    6. Priscilla Serwaa Nkyira Gambrah & Traian Adrian Pirvu, 2014. "Risk Measures and Portfolio Optimization," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, September.
    7. Hiroshi Konno & Hiroaki Yamazaki, 1991. "Mean-Absolute Deviation Portfolio Optimization Model and Its Applications to Tokyo Stock Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 519-531, May.
    8. Gottschlich, Jörg & Hinz, Oliver, 2014. "A Decision Support System for Stock Investment Recommendations Using Collective Wisdom," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 69939, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    9. Bennett Stewart, 2009. "EVA Momentum: The One Ratio That Tells the Whole Story," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 21(2), pages 74-86, March.
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