IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jresou/v8y2019i1p33-d203841.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Devising Mineral Resource Supply Pathways to a Low-Carbon Electricity Generation by 2100

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Boubault

    (Mines ParisTech, Center for Applied Mathematics, PSL Research University, Rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, 06904 Sophia Antipolis Cedex, France
    Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières, avenue Claude Guillemin, 45060 Orléans, France)

  • Nadia Maïzi

    (Mines ParisTech, Center for Applied Mathematics, PSL Research University, Rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, 06904 Sophia Antipolis Cedex, France)

Abstract

Achieving a “carbon neutral” world by 2100 or earlier in a context of economic growth implies a drastic and profound transformation of the way energy is supplied and consumed in our societies. In this paper, we use life-cycle inventories of electricity-generating technologies and an integrated assessment model (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) to project the global raw material requirements in two scenarios: a second shared socioeconomic pathway baseline, and a 2 °C scenario by 2100. Material usage reported in the life-cycle inventories is distributed into three phases, namely construction, operation, and decommissioning. Material supply dynamics and the impact of the 2 °C warming limit are quantified for three raw fossil fuels and forty-eight metallic and nonmetallic mineral resources. Depending on the time horizon, graphite, sand, sulfur, borates, aluminum, chromium, nickel, silver, gold, rare earth elements or their substitutes could face a sharp increase in usage as a result of a massive installation of low-carbon technologies. Ignoring nonfuel resource availability and value in deep decarbonation, circular economy, or decoupling scenarios can potentially generate misleading, contradictory, or unachievable climate policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Boubault & Nadia Maïzi, 2019. "Devising Mineral Resource Supply Pathways to a Low-Carbon Electricity Generation by 2100," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:8:y:2019:i:1:p:33-:d:203841
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/8/1/33/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/8/1/33/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Font Vivanco, David & Kemp, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2016. "How to deal with the rebound effect? A policy-oriented approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 114-125.
    2. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    3. Stefan Pauliuk & Anders Arvesen & Konstantin Stadler & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2017. "Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 13-20, January.
    4. Rabe, Wiebke & Kostka, Genia & Smith Stegen, Karen, 2017. "China's supply of critical raw materials: Risks for Europe's solar and wind industries?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 692-699.
    5. Harmsen, J.H.M. & Roes, A.L. & Patel, M.K., 2013. "The impact of copper scarcity on the efficiency of 2050 global renewable energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-73.
    6. Stamp, Anna & Wäger, Patrick A. & Hellweg, Stefanie, 2014. "Linking energy scenarios with metal demand modeling–The case of indium in CIGS solar cells," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 156-167.
    7. Tokimatsu, Koji & Wachtmeister, Henrik & McLellan, Benjamin & Davidsson, Simon & Murakami, Shinsuke & Höök, Mikael & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2°C target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 494-509.
    8. Dubreuil, Aurelie & Assoumou, Edi & Bouckaert, Stephanie & Selosse, Sandrine & Maı¨zi, Nadia, 2013. "Water modeling in an energy optimization framework – The water-scarce middle east context," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 268-279.
    9. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    10. Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester & Kramer, Gert Jan & van Oers, Lauran & van der Giesen, Coen, 2011. "Metal requirements of low-carbon power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5640-5648.
    11. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    12. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    13. Selosse, Sandrine & Ricci, Olivia, 2014. "Achieving negative emissions with BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in the power sector: New insights from the TIAM-FR (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model France) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 967-975.
    14. Grandell, Leena & Lehtilä, Antti & Kivinen, Mari & Koljonen, Tiina & Kihlman, Susanna & Lauri, Laura S., 2016. "Role of critical metals in the future markets of clean energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 53-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John D. Morley & Rupert J. Myers & Yves Plancherel & Pablo R. Brito-Parada, 2022. "A Database for the Stocks and Flows of Sand and Gravel," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mariev, Oleg & Samargandi, Nahla, 2022. "Minerals import demands and clean energy transitions: A disaggregated analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Doriana Dal Palù & Beatrice Lerma, 2023. "How Natural Are the “Natural” Materials? Proposal for a Quali-Quantitative Measurement Index of Naturalness in the Environmental Sustainability Context," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, February.
    4. John D. Morley & Rupert J. Myers & Yves Plancherel & Pablo R. Brito-Parada, 2022. "RETRACTED: A Database for the Extraction, Trade, and Use of Sand and Gravel," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Lucia Mancini & Philip Nuss, 2020. "Responsible Materials Management for a Resource-Efficient and Low-Carbon Society," Resources, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-14, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kim Maya Yavor & Vanessa Bach & Matthias Finkbeiner, 2021. "Resource Assessment of Renewable Energy Systems—A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & Tukker, Arnold & van der Voet, Ester, 2022. "Material requirements for low-carbon energy technologies: A quantitative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Price, James & Keppo, Ilkka, 2017. "Modelling to generate alternatives: A technique to explore uncertainty in energy-environment-economy models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 356-369.
    4. Di Leo, Senatro & Pietrapertosa, Filomena & Salvia, Monica & Cosmi, Carmelina, 2021. "Contribution of the Basilicata region to decarbonisation of the energy system: results of a scenario analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Bouckaert, Stéphanie & Assoumou, Edi & Selosse, Sandrine & Maïzi, Nadia, 2014. "A prospective analysis of waste heat management at power plants and water conservation issues using a global TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 80-91.
    6. Stefan Pauliuk & Niko Heeren, 2020. "ODYM—An open software framework for studying dynamic material systems: Principles, implementation, and data structures," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(3), pages 446-458, June.
    7. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "The impact of demand uncertainties and China-US natural gas tariff on global gas trade," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 205-217.
    8. Chen, Jinyu & Luo, Qian & Tu, Yan & Ren, Xiaohang & Naderi, Niki, 2023. "Renewable energy transition and metal consumption: Dynamic evolution analysis based on transnational data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    9. Vincent Moreau & Piero Carlo Dos Reis & François Vuille, 2019. "Enough Metals? Resource Constraints to Supply a Fully Renewable Energy System," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Elshkaki, Ayman & Shen, Lei, 2019. "Energy-material nexus: The impacts of national and international energy scenarios on critical metals use in China up to 2050 and their global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 903-917.
    11. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Evaluating metal constraints for photovoltaics: Perspectives from China’s PV development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    12. Jones, Ben & Elliott, Robert J.R. & Nguyen-Tien, Viet, 2020. "The EV revolution: The road ahead for critical raw materials demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    13. Flower, Jack & Hawker, Graeme & Bell, Keith, 2020. "Heterogeneity of UK residential heat demand and its impact on the value case for heat pumps," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    14. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Calvo, Guiomar & Ortego, Abel & Ascaso, Sonia & Palacios, Jose-Luis, 2018. "Global material requirements for the energy transition. An exergy flow analysis of decarbonisation pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1175-1184.
    15. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    16. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Wang, Peng & Willerström, Jakob & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    17. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    18. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    19. Stefan Pauliuk & Tomer Fishman & Niko Heeren & Peter Berrill & Qingshi Tu & Paul Wolfram & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2021. "Linking service provision to material cycles: A new framework for studying the resource efficiency–climate change (RECC) nexus," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 260-273, April.
    20. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mariev, Oleg & Samargandi, Nahla, 2022. "Minerals import demands and clean energy transitions: A disaggregated analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:8:y:2019:i:1:p:33-:d:203841. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.