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On the Number of Periodic Inspections During Outbreaks of Discrete-Time Stochastic SIS Epidemic Models

Author

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  • Maria Gamboa

    (Department of Statistics and Data Science, Faculty of Statistical Studies, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • Maria Jesus Lopez-Herrero

    (Department of Statistics and Data Science, Faculty of Statistical Studies, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

This paper deals with an infective process of type SIS, taking place in a closed population of moderate size that is inspected periodically. Our aim is to study the number of inspections that find the epidemic process still in progress. As the underlying mathematical model involves a discrete time Markov chain (DTMC) with a single absorbing state, the number of inspections in an outbreak is a first-passage time into this absorbing state. Cumulative probabilities are numerically determined from a recursive algorithm and expected values came from explicit expressions.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Gamboa & Maria Jesus Lopez-Herrero, 2018. "On the Number of Periodic Inspections During Outbreaks of Discrete-Time Stochastic SIS Epidemic Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:6:y:2018:i:8:p:128-:d:159622
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giorno, Virginia & Spina, Serena, 2016. "Rumor spreading models with random denials," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 569-576.
    2. Isham, Valerie & Harden, Simon & Nekovee, Maziar, 2010. "Stochastic epidemics and rumours on finite random networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(3), pages 561-576.
    3. De Martino, Giuseppe & Spina, Serena, 2015. "Exploiting the time-dynamics of news diffusion on the Internet through a generalized Susceptible–Infected model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 634-644.
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