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Synergistic Impact of Active Case Detection and Early Hospitalization for Controlling the Spread of Yellow Fever Outbreak in Nigeria: An Epidemiological Modeling and Optimal Control Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Nawaf L. Alsowait

    (Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Northern Border University, Arar 91431, Saudi Arabia)

  • Mohammed M. Al-Shomrani

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia)

  • Ismail Abdulrashid

    (School of Finance and Operations Management, The University of Tulsa, Tulsa, OK 74104, USA)

  • Salihu S. Musa

    (Department of Genomics and Computational Biology, University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, Worcester, MA 01605, USA
    Department of Mathematics, Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Wudil 713101, Kano, Nigeria
    Department of Mathematics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
    Institute for Health Computing, University of Maryland, North Bethesda, MD 20852, USA)

Abstract

Capturing the factors influencing yellow fever (YF) outbreaks is essential for effective public health interventions, especially in regions like Nigeria, where the disease poses significant health risks. This study explores the synergistic effects of active case detection (ACD) and early hospitalization on controlling YF transmission dynamics. We develop a dynamic model that integrates vaccination, active case detection, and hospitalization to enhance our understanding of disease spread and inform prevention strategies. Our methodology encompasses mechanistic dynamic modeling, optimal control analysis, parameter estimation, model fitting, and sensitivity analyses to study YF transmission dynamics, ensuring the robustness of control measures. We employ advanced mathematical techniques, including next-generation matrix methods, to accurately compute the reproduction number and assess outbreak transmissibility. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals two equilibria: disease-free and endemic, demonstrating global asymptotic stability and its impact on overall YF transmission dynamics, significantly affecting control and prevention mechanisms. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, we identify crucial parameters of the model that require urgent attention for more effective YF control. Moreover, our results highlight the critical roles of ACD and early hospitalization in reducing YF transmission. These insights provide a foundation for informed decision making and resource allocation in epidemic control efforts, ultimately contributing to the enhancement of public health strategies aimed at mitigating the impact of YF outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nawaf L. Alsowait & Mohammed M. Al-Shomrani & Ismail Abdulrashid & Salihu S. Musa, 2024. "Synergistic Impact of Active Case Detection and Early Hospitalization for Controlling the Spread of Yellow Fever Outbreak in Nigeria: An Epidemiological Modeling and Optimal Control Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-30, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:23:p:3817-:d:1535183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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