IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v11y2023i19p4091-d1248899.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling of Project Portfolio Risk Evolution and Response under the Influence of Interactions

Author

Listed:
  • Yipei Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China)

  • Jiale Liu

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China)

  • Xiaoyan Xie

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China)

  • Chenshuo Wang

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China)

  • Libiao Bai

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China)

Abstract

Due to dynamic changes in both internal and external environments, the risk evolution of the project portfolio (PP) becomes extremely complicated, thereby increasing the difficulties of effective risk response. In particular, the real-time influence of risk interactions on the evolution of project portfolio risk (PPR) often goes unnoticed. Meanwhile, risk contagiousness is completely ignored in risk response. To tackle this challenge, this study proposes a PPR evolution and response (PPRER) model by improving the Barrat–Barthelemy–Vespignani (BBV) model and by introducing the evolutionary dynamics method into the PPR response research. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed model are verified through a numerical illustration. Computational results demonstrate that the proposed model can simulate the evolution process of PPRs under the influence of their interactions and give a snapshot of the real-time interactive relationship between PPRs. Based on the obtained results, decision-makers can take effective risk responses by identifying critical strategy intrusion nodes at any time in the evolution process.

Suggested Citation

  • Yipei Zhang & Jiale Liu & Xiaoyan Xie & Chenshuo Wang & Libiao Bai, 2023. "Modeling of Project Portfolio Risk Evolution and Response under the Influence of Interactions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-20, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:19:p:4091-:d:1248899
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/19/4091/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/19/4091/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yusi Cheng & Jingfeng Yuan & Lei Zhu & Wei Li, 2020. "Risk Propagation Model and Simulation of Schedule Change in Construction Projects: A Complex Network Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-12, December.
    2. Vijaya Dixit & Manoj Kumar Tiwari, 2020. "Project portfolio selection and scheduling optimization based on risk measure: a conditional value at risk approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 285(1), pages 9-33, February.
    3. Libiao Bai & Kaimin Zhang & Huijing Shi & Min An & Xiao Han, 2020. "Project Portfolio Resource Risk Assessment considering Project Interdependency by the Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-21, November.
    4. Wagner, Stephan M. & Eggert, Andreas & Lindemann, Eckhard, 2010. "Creating and appropriating value in collaborative relationships," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(8), pages 840-848, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cinzia Battistella & Gianluca Murgia & Fabio Nonino, 2021. "Free-driven web-based business models," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 445-486, June.
    2. Aspara, Jaakko & Tikkanen, Henrikki, 2013. "Creating novel consumer value vs. capturing value: Strategic emphases and financial performance implications," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(5), pages 593-602.
    3. Ji, Chenyi & Su, Xing & Qin, Zhongfu & Nawaz, Ahsan, 2022. "Probability Analysis of Construction Risk based on Noisy-or Gate Bayesian Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Benati, S. & Conde, E., 2022. "A relative robust approach on expected returns with bounded CVaR for portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 332-352.
    5. Thai, Mai Thi Thanh & Turkina, Ekaterina, 2014. "Macro-level determinants of formal entrepreneurship versus informal entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 490-510.
    6. Chen Qian & Stefan Seuring & Ralf Wagner, 2021. "Reviewing interfirm relationship quality from a supply chain management perspective," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 625-650, July.
    7. Daniela Corsaro, 2017. "Disclosing the dark side of value processes in business relationships," MERCATI & COMPETITIVIT?, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2017(4), pages 125-149.
    8. Lei Liu & Marcello Urgo, 2024. "Robust scheduling in a two-machine re-entrant flow shop to minimise the value-at-risk of the makespan: branch-and-bound and heuristic algorithms based on Markovian activity networks and phase-type dis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 338(1), pages 741-764, July.
    9. Feng, Jian Rui & Zhao, Meng-ke & Lu, Shou-xiang, 2024. "Accident spread and risk propagation mechanism in complex industrial system network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    10. Ryan, James Christopher, 2016. "Old knowledge for new impacts: Equity theory and workforce nationalization," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 1587-1592.
    11. Mouzas, Stefanos, 2022. "What drives business transformation? Evidence from manufacturer-retailer networks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 282-293.
    12. Christian Hofer & Jordan M. Barker & Laura D'Oria & Jonathan L. Johnson, 2022. "Broadening our understanding of interfirm rivalry: A call for research on how supply networks shape competitive behavior and performance," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 58(2), pages 8-25, April.
    13. Zhang, Kaimin & Bai, Libiao & Xie, Xiaoyan & Wang, Chenshuo, 2023. "Modeling of risk cascading propagation in project portfolio network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 612(C).
    14. Talay, Cagri & Oxborrow, Lynn & Brindley, Clare, 2020. "How small suppliers deal with the buyer power in asymmetric relationships within the sustainable fashion supply chain," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 604-614.
    15. Jolanta Tamošaitienė & Vahidreza Yousefi & Hamed Tabasi, 2021. "Project Portfolio Construction Using Extreme Value Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, January.
    16. Yan, Tingting & Wagner, Stephan M., 2017. "Do what and with whom? Value creation and appropriation in inter-organizational new product development projects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1-14.
    17. Mdarhri Alaoui Saâd & Noureddine Amine, 2019. "The Impact Of Power And Relationship Quality On Value Creation and Appropriation in Buyer–Supplier Relationships," Review of Marketing Science, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 47-80, June.
    18. Almeida, José & Soares, Joao & Lezama, Fernando & Vale, Zita & Francois, Bruno, 2024. "Comparison of evolutionary algorithms for solving risk-based energy resource management considering conditional value-at-risk analysis," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 224(PB), pages 87-110.
    19. Javier León & Justo Puerto & Begoña Vitoriano, 2020. "A Risk-Aversion Approach for the Multiobjective Stochastic Programming Problem," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-26, November.
    20. Wagner, Stephan M. & Sutter, Reto, 2012. "A qualitative investigation of innovation between third-‐party logistics providers and customers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 944-958.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:19:p:4091-:d:1248899. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.