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Modeling of Project Portfolio Risk Evolution and Response under the Influence of Interactions

Author

Listed:
  • Yipei Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China)

  • Jiale Liu

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China)

  • Xiaoyan Xie

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China)

  • Chenshuo Wang

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China)

  • Libiao Bai

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China)

Abstract

Due to dynamic changes in both internal and external environments, the risk evolution of the project portfolio (PP) becomes extremely complicated, thereby increasing the difficulties of effective risk response. In particular, the real-time influence of risk interactions on the evolution of project portfolio risk (PPR) often goes unnoticed. Meanwhile, risk contagiousness is completely ignored in risk response. To tackle this challenge, this study proposes a PPR evolution and response (PPRER) model by improving the Barrat–Barthelemy–Vespignani (BBV) model and by introducing the evolutionary dynamics method into the PPR response research. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed model are verified through a numerical illustration. Computational results demonstrate that the proposed model can simulate the evolution process of PPRs under the influence of their interactions and give a snapshot of the real-time interactive relationship between PPRs. Based on the obtained results, decision-makers can take effective risk responses by identifying critical strategy intrusion nodes at any time in the evolution process.

Suggested Citation

  • Yipei Zhang & Jiale Liu & Xiaoyan Xie & Chenshuo Wang & Libiao Bai, 2023. "Modeling of Project Portfolio Risk Evolution and Response under the Influence of Interactions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:19:p:4091-:d:1248899
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yusi Cheng & Jingfeng Yuan & Lei Zhu & Wei Li, 2020. "Risk Propagation Model and Simulation of Schedule Change in Construction Projects: A Complex Network Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-12, December.
    2. Libiao Bai & Kaimin Zhang & Huijing Shi & Min An & Xiao Han, 2020. "Project Portfolio Resource Risk Assessment considering Project Interdependency by the Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-21, November.
    3. Vijaya Dixit & Manoj Kumar Tiwari, 2020. "Project portfolio selection and scheduling optimization based on risk measure: a conditional value at risk approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 285(1), pages 9-33, February.
    4. Wagner, Stephan M. & Eggert, Andreas & Lindemann, Eckhard, 2010. "Creating and appropriating value in collaborative relationships," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(8), pages 840-848, August.
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