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Reliability Modelling of Pipeline Failure under the Impact of Submarine Slides-Copula Method

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  • Laifu Song

    (State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
    College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China)

  • Hao Ying

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China)

  • Wei Wang

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China)

  • Ning Fan

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China)

  • Xueming Du

    (School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

Abstract

The instability of seabed slope sediments is the main factor influencing the safety of marine resource development. Therefore, to ensure the safe operation of submarine pipelines under complex and uncertain seabed rock and soil conditions, a reliability model was developed to elucidate the trend of impact-related pipeline damage due to submarine slides. Then, a risk assessment of the damage process of submarine slides impacting pipelines was conducted, which is of great significance for the in-depth safety assessment of pipelines impacted by submarine slides. Based on the copula function, a joint probability distribution model considering the correlation among risk variables was established for rational correlation characterization. A probability analysis method of impact-related pipeline damage attributed to submarine slides based on the copula function was proposed. The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method was employed to simulate the random uncertainty in limited observation values and accurately determine the reliability of safe pipeline operation under the action of submarine slides. The conclusions were as follows: (1) Based on the copula function, a joint probability distribution model of risk variables with any marginal distribution function and related structure could be developed. (2) The copula function could reasonably characterize relevant nonnormal distribution characteristics of risk variables and could simulate samples conforming to the distribution pattern of the risk variables. (3) The failure probability calculated with the traditional independent normal distribution model was very low, which could result in a notable overestimation of the reliability of submarine pipelines.

Suggested Citation

  • Laifu Song & Hao Ying & Wei Wang & Ning Fan & Xueming Du, 2022. "Reliability Modelling of Pipeline Failure under the Impact of Submarine Slides-Copula Method," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:9:p:1382-:d:797920
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Schuermann, Til, 2006. "A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 569-614, March.
    2. Yicheng Zhou & Zhenzhou Lu & Yan Shi & Kai Cheng, 2019. "The copula-based method for statistical analysis of step-stress accelerated life test with dependent competing failure modes," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(3), pages 401-418, June.
    3. Wen, Xiaoqian & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2012. "Measuring contagion between energy market and stock market during financial crisis: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1435-1446.
    4. Rui Pang & Laifu Song, 2021. "Stochastic Dynamic Response Analysis of the 3D Slopes of Rockfill Dams Based on the Coupling Randomness of Strength Parameters and Seismic Ground Motion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(24), pages 1-25, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shaofeng Wang & Xin Cai & Jian Zhou & Zhengyang Song & Xiaofeng Li, 2022. "Analytical, Numerical and Big-Data-Based Methods in Deep Rock Mechanics," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(18), pages 1-5, September.

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