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Identifying Hot Spots of Critical Forage Supply in Dryland Nomadic Pastoralist Areas: A Case Study for the Afar Region, Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • B. G. J. S. Sonneveld

    (Amsterdam Centre for World Food Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • C. F. A. Van Wesenbeeck

    (Amsterdam Centre for World Food Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • M. A. Keyzer

    (Amsterdam Centre for World Food Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • F. Beyene

    (College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia)

  • K. Georgis

    (GEOSAS Consultancies, P.O. Box 787, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

  • F. Urbano

    (Sustainable Resources, Food Security Unit, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy)

  • M. Meroni

    (Sustainable Resources, Food Security Unit, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy)

  • O. Leo

    (Sustainable Resources, Food Security Unit, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy)

  • M. K. Yimer

    (Water Resource and Irrigation Engineering department. Haramaya Institute of Technology, Haramaya University, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia)

  • M. Abdullatif

    (Afar Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Research Institute, P.O. Box 16, Semara, Ethiopia)

Abstract

This study develops a methodology to identify hot spots of critical forage supply in nomadic pastoralist areas, using the Afar Region, Ethiopia, as a special case. It addresses two main problems. First, it makes a spatially explicit assessment of fodder supply and demand extracted from a data poor environment. Fodder supply is assessed by combining rainfall-based production functions and rule-based assessment for prevailing land use. Fodder demand is based on a data consistency check of livestock statistics concerning herd size, composition and geographical distribution. Second, individual herd movements have to be evaluated jointly in concurrent migration patterns to assess local pressures on fodder resources. We, therefore, apply a transition model that relates stock levels to seasonal migration routings for all Afar sub-clans jointly so as to localize the hot spots where feed demand exceeds forage supply. Critical areas come to the fore, especially, near fringes of Highlands and in the southern part of the Afar. A sensitivity test shows that ‘Baseline’ scenario is close to the ‘Best’ but under ‘Worst’, the Afar region would fall into despair. We conclude that the model is a useful tool to inform policy makers on critical areas in the Afar region.

Suggested Citation

  • B. G. J. S. Sonneveld & C. F. A. Van Wesenbeeck & M. A. Keyzer & F. Beyene & K. Georgis & F. Urbano & M. Meroni & O. Leo & M. K. Yimer & M. Abdullatif, 2017. "Identifying Hot Spots of Critical Forage Supply in Dryland Nomadic Pastoralist Areas: A Case Study for the Afar Region, Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-31, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:6:y:2017:i:4:p:82-:d:119496
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ebrahimi, A. & Milotić, T. & Hoffmann, M., 2010. "A herbivore specific grazing capacity model accounting for spatio-temporal environmental variation: A tool for a more sustainable nature conservation and rangeland management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(6), pages 900-910.
    2. Keyzer, M.A. & Merbis, M.D. & Pavel, I.F.P.W. & van Wesenbeeck, C.F.A., 2005. "Diet shifts towards meat and the effects on cereal use: can we feed the animals in 2030?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 187-202, November.
    3. Hundie, Bekele, 2006. "Explaining Changes of Property Rights among Afar Pastoralists, Ethiopia," Institutional Change in Agriculture and Natural Resources Discussion Papers 18833, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adane Kebede Gebeyehu & Ben G. J. S. Sonneveld & Denyse J. Snelder, 2021. "Identifying Hotspots of Overgrazing in Pastoral Areas: Livestock Mobility and Fodder Supply–Demand Balances in Nyangatom, Lower Omo Valley, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.

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