IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ifaamr/132788.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's Meat and Egg Production and Soybean Meal Demand for Feed: An Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Masuda, Tadayoshi
  • Goldsmith, Peter D.

Abstract

China is a large meat and egg producer and correspondingly a large soybean meal consumer. Dual forces affect the derived demand for soybeans; rising livestock production to meet consum-er demand for protein and the shift to commercial feed by the livestock industry. We employ a unique elasticity approach to estimate these dual forces on soybean meal demand over the next 20 years. We then discuss the implications of these forecasts with respect to the modernization of China’s feed industry, land use changes in South America, and the need for yield research to reduce pressure on increasingly scarce land resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Masuda, Tadayoshi & Goldsmith, Peter D., 2012. "China's Meat and Egg Production and Soybean Meal Demand for Feed: An Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 1-20, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ifaamr:132788
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.132788
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/132788/files/20120032.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.132788?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang Y. Zhou & Wei M. Tian & Bill Malcolm, 2008. "Supply and demand estimates for feed grains in China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 111-122, July.
    2. Peter Goldsmith & Gabriel Ramos & Carlos Steiger, 2006. "Intellectual property piracy in a North–South context: empirical evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(3), pages 335-349, November.
    3. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    4. Frank H. Fuller & Dermot J. Hayes & Darnell B. Smith, 1999. "Reconciling Chinese Meat Production and Consumption Data," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 99-wp210, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    5. Masuda, Tadayoshi & Goldsmith, Peter D., 2009. "World Soybean Production: Area Harvested, Yield, and Long-Term Projections," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, November.
    6. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Wang, Ji-Min & Zhou, Zhang-Yue & Yang, Jun, 2004. "How Much Animal Product do the Chinese Consume? Empirical Evidence from Household Surveys," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 12.
    10. repec:ags:auagre:126561 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
    13. Wang, Ji-Min & Zhou, Zhang-Yue & Cox, Rodney J., 2005. "Animal Product Consumption Trends in China," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 13.
    14. Keyzer, M.A. & Merbis, M.D. & Pavel, I.F.P.W. & van Wesenbeeck, C.F.A., 2005. "Diet shifts towards meat and the effects on cereal use: can we feed the animals in 2030?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 187-202, November.
    15. Bossaerts, Peter, 1988. "Common nonstationary components of asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 347-364.
    16. David L. Ortega & H. Holly Wang & James S. Eales, 2009. "Meat demand in China," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(4), pages 410-419, August.
    17. repec:ucp:ecdecc:doi:10.1086/452489 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:ucp:ecdecc:y:2004:v:52:i:2:p:445-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    20. Goldsmith, Peter D. & Li, Bing & Fruin, Jerry E. & Hirsch, Rodolfo, 2004. "Global Shifts in Agro-Industrial Capital and the Case of Soybean Crushing: Implications for Managers and Policy Makers," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-29.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi & Tendai Polite Chibarabada & Vimbayi Grace Petrova Chimonyo & Vongai Gillian Murugani & Laura Maureen Pereira & Nafiisa Sobratee & Laurencia Govender & Rob Slotow & Albert The, 2018. "Mainstreaming Underutilized Indigenous and Traditional Crops into Food Systems: A South African Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chandran, V.G.R. & Tang, Chor Foon, 2013. "The impacts of transport energy consumption, foreign direct investment and income on CO2 emissions in ASEAN-5 economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 445-453.
    2. Dina Azhgaliyeva, 2013. "What Makes Oil Revenue Funds Effective," International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-economic Development 6023, EcoMod.
    3. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    4. Bednarek, Ziemowit, 2016. "Pure technology gaps and production predictability," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 39-50.
    5. W. David Walls & Kelly Busche, 1996. "Betting volume and market efficiency in Hong Kong race track betting," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(12), pages 783-787.
    6. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro & Mármol, Francesc, 1999. "A new instrumental variable approach for estimation and testing in fractional cointegrating regressions," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6298, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Park, Suk K. & Ahn, Sung K. & Cho, Sinsup, 2011. "Generalized method of moments estimation for cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2605-2618, September.
    8. Hallin, M. & van den Akker, R. & Werker, B.J.M., 2012. "Rank-based Tests of the Cointegrating Rank in Semiparametric Error Correction Models," Other publications TiSEM bc68a2f2-3ca3-443c-b3ac-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    11. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    12. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Long‐run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long‐term Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-568, November.
    13. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Short- and long-run electricity demand elasticities at the subsectoral level: A cointegration analysis for German manufacturing industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-187.
    14. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    15. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    16. A. F. Darrat & R. N. Dickens, 1999. "On the interrelationships among real, monetary, and financial variables," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 289-293.
    17. repec:kap:iaecre:v:16:y:2010:i:1:p:80-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Murthy, N. R. Vasudeva & Phillips, Joseph M., 1996. "The relationship between budget deficits and capital inflows: Further econometric evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 485-494.
    19. Götz, L. & Djuric, I. & Glauben, T., 2015. "Price Damping and Price Insulating Effects of Wheat Export Restrictions in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 50, March.
    20. Baek, Jungho & Cho, Yongsung & Koo, Won W., 2009. "The environmental consequences of globalization: A country-specific time-series analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(8-9), pages 2255-2264, June.
    21. Nourah Al†Yousef, 2018. "Fundamentals and Oil Price Behaviour: New Evidence from Co†integration Tests with Structural Breaks and Granger Causality Tests," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ifaamr:132788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifamaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.