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Spatio-Temporal Changes and Driving Mechanisms of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2022

Author

Listed:
  • Qiuxuan Xu

    (Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jinmei Li

    (Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Sumeng Zhang

    (Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Quanzhi Yuan

    (Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China
    Sustainable Development Research Center of Resource and Environment of Western Sichuan, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610066, China)

  • Ping Ren

    (Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China
    Key Lab of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610066, China)

Abstract

Net primary productivity (NPP), a key indicator of terrestrial ecosystem quality and function, represents the amount of organic matter produced by vegetation per unit area and time. This study utilizes the MOD17A3 NPP dataset (2001–2022) to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of NPP in Xinjiang and projects future trends using Theil-Sen trend analysis, the Mann–-Kendall test, and the Hurst Index. By integrating meteorological data, this study employs partial correlation analysis, the Miami model, and residual analysis to explore the driving mechanisms behind NPP changes influenced by climatic factors and human activities. The results indicate that: (1) The average NPP in Xinjiang has increased over the years, displaying a spatial pattern with higher values in the north and west. Regions with increasing NPP outnumber those with declining trends, while 75.18% of the area shows un-certain future trends. (2) Precipitation exhibits a stronger positive correlation with NPP compared to temperature. (3) Climate change accounts for 28.34% of the variation in NPP, while human activities account for 71.66%, making the latter the dominant driving factor. This study aids in monitoring ecological degradation risks in arid regions of China and provides a scientific basis for developing rational coping strategies and ecological restoration initiatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiuxuan Xu & Jinmei Li & Sumeng Zhang & Quanzhi Yuan & Ping Ren, 2024. "Spatio-Temporal Changes and Driving Mechanisms of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2022," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:8:p:1305-:d:1458367
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ennan Zheng & Mengting Qin & Peng Chen & Tianyu Xu & Zhongxue Zhang, 2022. "Climate Change Affects the Utilization of Light and Heat Resources in Paddy Field on the Songnen Plain, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Xiaowei Tong & Martin Brandt & Yuemin Yue & Stephanie Horion & Kelin Wang & Wanda De Keersmaecker & Feng Tian & Guy Schurgers & Xiangming Xiao & Yiqi Luo & Chi Chen & Ranga Myneni & Zheng Shi & Hongso, 2018. "Increased vegetation growth and carbon stock in China karst via ecological engineering," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(1), pages 44-50, January.
    3. Fang, Xia & Chen, Zhi & Guo, Xulin & Zhu, Shihua & Liu, Tong & Li, Chaofan & He, Biao, 2019. "Impacts and uncertainties of climate/CO2 change on net primary productivity in Xinjiang, China (2000–2014): A modelling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 1-1.
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