IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v275y2023ics0378377422005820.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drought monitoring of sugarcane and dynamic variation characteristics under global warming: A case study of Guangxi, China

Author

Listed:
  • Guga, Suri
  • Ma, Yining
  • Riao, Dao
  • Zhi, Feng
  • Xu, Jie
  • Zhang, Jiquan

Abstract

Sugarcane planting is the largest cash crop industry in Guangxi and plays an essential role in national sugar security. However, as the climate warms in recent years, agricultural drought has occurred frequently and repeatedly in Guangxi, including drought in 2009–2010. Extreme warm and dry created a shortage of water resources, resulting in a severe reduction in sugarcane production in Guangxi and a large gap in the sugar market. Our study used the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to identify and monitor sugarcane drought disasters in Guangxi, analyze the impact of long-term warming on drought in different sugarcane growth periods caused by precipitation deficits, and explore the change in sugarcane drought exposure under climate change. (1) Based on historical climate observations, warmth and precipitation deficits co-occurred, and the possibility of drought in the sugarcane growth stage was 100%. We found that although the probability of precipitation deficit did not change substantially in sugarcane, the occurrence of seeding and maturity stage drought years was greater in the past 30 years than in the preceding 28. In addition, the different growth periods of sugarcane also exhibited more warming characteristics. (2) The multi-model ensemble reveal that climate warming has increased the probability of drought years are also warmer in all sugarcane growing seasons, with the highest incidence of drought occurring during the seeding, tillering, and maturity stage. As the forced emission scenario is strengthened, the probability of precipitation deficits and warm conditions occurring simultaneously will increase, as will the probability of warming-induced drought. (3) Under the warming scenario, the sugarcane drought-affected areas are gradually expanding, which could result in the current highly suitable sugarcane planting areas reach the drought tolerance limit. From stem elongation to whole growth period, drought occurrence increases as latitude decreases, in addition, the risk of short-term drought risk of sugarcane becomes more challenging, especially the drought in the mature period, which may become the main limiting factor in achieving a high yield of sugarcane in this region.

Suggested Citation

  • Guga, Suri & Ma, Yining & Riao, Dao & Zhi, Feng & Xu, Jie & Zhang, Jiquan, 2023. "Drought monitoring of sugarcane and dynamic variation characteristics under global warming: A case study of Guangxi, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:275:y:2023:i:c:s0378377422005820
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.108035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377422005820
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.108035?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aiguo Dai, 2011. "Drought under global warming: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 45-65, January.
    2. Corey Lesk & Pedram Rowhani & Navin Ramankutty, 2016. "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7584), pages 84-87, January.
    3. Qinghua ZHU & Ernest A. LOWE & Yuan‐an WEI & Donald BARNES, 2007. "Industrial Symbiosis in China: A Case Study of the Guitang Group," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 11(1), pages 31-42, January.
    4. Xing Yuan & Linying Wang & Peili Wu & Peng Ji & Justin Sheffield & Miao Zhang, 2019. "Anthropogenic shift towards higher risk of flash drought over China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Sindhu, Raveendran & Gnansounou, Edgard & Binod, Parameswaran & Pandey, Ashok, 2016. "Bioconversion of sugarcane crop residue for value added products – An overview," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 203-215.
    6. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 52-58, January.
    7. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Erratum: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 171-171, February.
    8. Jeff Tollefson, 2021. "IPCC climate report: Earth is warmer than it’s been in 125,000 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 596(7871), pages 171-172, August.
    9. Wang, Ming & Liu, Zhengjia & Ali Baig, Muhammad Hasan & Wang, Yongsheng & Li, Yurui & Chen, Yuanyan, 2019. "Mapping sugarcane in complex landscapes by integrating multi-temporal Sentinel-2 images and machine learning algorithms," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Santillán-Fernández, A. & Santoyo-Cortés, V.H. & García-Chávez, L.R. & Covarrubias-Gutiérrez, I. & Merino, A., 2016. "Influence of drought and irrigation on sugarcane yields in different agroecoregions in Mexico," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 126-135.
    11. Xiaowei Tong & Martin Brandt & Yuemin Yue & Stephanie Horion & Kelin Wang & Wanda De Keersmaecker & Feng Tian & Guy Schurgers & Xiangming Xiao & Yiqi Luo & Chi Chen & Ranga Myneni & Zheng Shi & Hongso, 2018. "Increased vegetation growth and carbon stock in China karst via ecological engineering," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(1), pages 44-50, January.
    12. Zhu, Xiufang & Xu, Kun & Liu, Ying & Guo, Rui & Chen, Lingyi, 2021. "Assessing the vulnerability and risk of maize to drought in China based on the AquaCrop model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    13. Huang, Jiangfeng & Khan, Muhammad Tahir & Perecin, Danilo & Coelho, Suani T. & Zhang, Muqing, 2020. "Sugarcane for bioethanol production: Potential of bagasse in Chinese perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Yang, Yueting & Li, Kaiwei & Wei, Sicheng & Guga, Suri & Zhang, Jiquan & Wang, Chunyi, 2022. "Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and hazard assessment of millet drought disaster in Northern China under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guojun Zheng & Shengfeng Long & Guanghu Zhu & Qinlong Wang & Ting Luo & Hairong Huang & Lu Liu & Hui Fang & Pengcheng Ma & Yaoyang Shen & Zeping Wang, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Dynamic Relationship of Meteorological Factors and Sugar Content of Sugarcane by Vector Autoregression Model," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-19, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huynh, Thanh D. & Nguyen, Thu Ha & Truong, Cameron, 2020. "Climate risk: The price of drought," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Jinhua Wen & Yian Hua & Chenkai Cai & Shiwu Wang & Helong Wang & Xinyan Zhou & Jian Huang & Jianqun Wang, 2023. "Probabilistic Forecast and Risk Assessment of Flash Droughts Based on Numeric Weather Forecast: A Case Study in Zhejiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye & Guangcheng Shao & Xiaojun Wang & Shiqing Wu, 2021. "Quantification of drought severity change in Ethiopia during 1952–2017," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5096-5121, April.
    4. Ding, Yugang & Xu, Jiangmin, 2023. "Global vulnerability of agricultural commodities to climate risk: Evidence from satellite data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 669-687.
    5. Zhu, Xiufang & Xu, Kun & Liu, Ying & Guo, Rui & Chen, Lingyi, 2021. "Assessing the vulnerability and risk of maize to drought in China based on the AquaCrop model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    6. Roman Rolbiecki & Ali Yücel & Joanna Kocięcka & Atılgan Atilgan & Monika Marković & Daniel Liberacki, 2022. "Analysis of SPI as a Drought Indicator during the Maize Growing Period in the Çukurova Region (Turkey)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-29, March.
    7. Jianzhi Dong & Fangni Lei & Wade T. Crow, 2022. "Land transpiration-evaporation partitioning errors responsible for modeled summertime warm bias in the central United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. Xu, Zhenheng & Sun, Hao & Zhang, Tian & Xu, Huanyu & Wu, Dan & Gao, JinHua, 2023. "Evaluating established deep learning methods in constructing integrated remote sensing drought index: A case study in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    9. Su, Zheng’e & Zhao, Jin & Marek, Thomas H. & Liu, Ke & Harrison, Matthew Tom & Xue, Qingwu, 2022. "Drought tolerant maize hybrids have higher yields and lower water use under drought conditions at a regional scale," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    10. Serge Savary & Sonia Akter & Conny Almekinders & Jody Harris & Lise Korsten & Reimund Rötter & Stephen Waddington & Derrill Watson, 2020. "Mapping disruption and resilience mechanisms in food systems," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 695-717, August.
    11. Julia S. Stoyanova & Christo G. Georgiev & Plamen N. Neytchev, 2023. "Drought Monitoring in Terms of Evapotranspiration Based on Satellite Data from Meteosat in Areas of Strong Land–Atmosphere Coupling," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    12. Somnath Mondal & Ashok K. Mishra & Ruby Leung & Benjamin Cook, 2023. "Global droughts connected by linkages between drought hubs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Tri-Dung Nguyen & Uday Venkatadri & Tri Nguyen-Quang & Claver Diallo & Duc-Huy Pham & Huu-Thanh Phan & Le-Khai Pham & Phu-Cuong Nguyen & Michelle Adams, 2024. "Stochastic Modelling Frameworks for Dragon Fruit Supply Chains in Vietnam under Uncertain Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-29, March.
    14. Li, Su-Yuan & Miao, Li-Juan & Jiang, Zhi-Hong & Wang, Guo-Jie & Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj & Zhang, Jing & Zhang, Hui & Fang, Ke & He, Yu & Li, Chun, 2020. "Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 210-217.
    15. Jale Amanuel Dufera & Tewodros Addisu Yate & Tadesse Tujuba Kenea, 2023. "Spatiotemporal analysis of drought in Oromia regional state of Ethiopia over the period 1989 to 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1569-1609, June.
    16. Anna Jędrejek & Rafał Pudełko, 2023. "Exploring the Potential Use of Sentinel-1 and 2 Satellite Imagery for Monitoring Winter Wheat Growth under Agricultural Drought Conditions in North-Western Poland," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, September.
    17. Rengui Jiang & Jiancang Xie & Hailong He & Jungang Luo & Jiwei Zhu, 2015. "Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi, China: 1951–2012," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2885-2903, February.
    18. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    19. Nabeel Bani Hani & Fakher J. Aukour & Mohammed I. Al-Qinna, 2022. "Investigating the Pearl Millet ( Pennisetum glaucum ) as a Climate-Smart Drought-Tolerant Crop under Jordanian Arid Environments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-21, September.
    20. Dingcai Yin & Xiaohua Gou & Haijiang Yang & Kai Wang & Jie Liu & Yiran Zhang & Linlin Gao, 2023. "Elevation-dependent tree growth response to recent warming and drought on eastern Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-18, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Drought; Climate extremes; Sugarcane; Event attribution; CMIP6;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:275:y:2023:i:c:s0378377422005820. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.