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Multi-Scenario Simulation and Eco-Environmental Effects Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change in China by an Integrated Cellular Automata and Markov Model

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  • Huihui Wang

    (Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
    School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Key Laboratory of Coastal Water Environmental Management and Water Ecological Restoration of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Hanyu Xue

    (Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
    Zhixing College, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
    Research Institute of Urban Renewal, Zhuhai Institute of Urban Planning and Design, Zhuhai 519100, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Yunsong Yang

    (Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
    School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Key Laboratory of Coastal Water Environmental Management and Water Ecological Restoration of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China)

  • Wanlin He

    (Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
    Zhixing College, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China)

  • Suru Liu

    (Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
    Zhixing College, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China)

  • Yuhao Zhong

    (Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
    Zhixing College, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China)

  • Xiaoyong Gao

    (Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
    Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117570, Singapore)

  • Tingting Xu

    (Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
    Huitong College, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China)

Abstract

Land use transitions play a critical role in ecological environmental restoration, but they are also plagued by ecological environmental problems caused by excessive land resource development. In this study, we propose a methodological framework for unveiling the nexus profile of land use/cover change (LUCC) and eco-environmental effects. This study explored the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of LUCC over a long time series based on high-precision land use data from 1990 to 2020. Then, the ecological values (EVs) of various cities were calculated to obtain the ecological contribution rate of different land use types in the process of change. Finally, the future development trends of land use and ecological environmental quality were predicted under multiple scenarios using the cellular automata–Markov model, and scientific policy recommendations were proposed. The results showed that the expansion trajectory of the construction land in the urban agglomeration mainly expanded inwards along the mouth of the Pearl River, and the conversion of cultivated land to construction land was the most significant type of land use change. The overall ecological environmental quality of the study area showed a downwards trend, with Shenzhen exhibiting the largest decrease in EVs. Cultivated land contributed significantly to improving regional ecological environmental quality, while the land use transition types with relatively large contributions to environmental quality deterioration were conversions to construction land. Under the scenario of coordinated protection, the degree of cultivated land area reduction was significantly reduced, and the area of forestland showed a positive growth trend, with the expansion trend of construction land being reversed. These research findings can enrich the theoretical research on the sustainable development of urban agglomerations and provide reliable data support for policy-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Huihui Wang & Hanyu Xue & Yunsong Yang & Wanlin He & Suru Liu & Yuhao Zhong & Xiaoyong Gao & Tingting Xu, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Eco-Environmental Effects Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change in China by an Integrated Cellular Automata and Markov Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-27, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:4:p:520-:d:1375604
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yanyan Li & Jinbing Zhang & Hui Zhu & Zhimin Zhou & Shan Jiang & Shuangyan He & Ying Zhang & Yicheng Huang & Mengfan Li & Guangrui Xing & Guanghui Li, 2023. "Soil Erosion Characteristics and Scenario Analysis in the Yellow River Basin Based on PLUS and RUSLE Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Elena Cervelli & Pier Francesco Recchi & Ester Scotto di Perta & Stefania Pindozzi, 2023. "Land Use Change Scenario Building Combining Agricultural Development Policies, Landscape-Planning Approaches, and Ecosystem Service Assessment: A Case Study from the Campania Region (Italy)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-24, September.
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