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Land Use Change Scenario Building Combining Agricultural Development Policies, Landscape-Planning Approaches, and Ecosystem Service Assessment: A Case Study from the Campania Region (Italy)

Author

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  • Elena Cervelli

    (Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, Via Università 100, 80055 Portici, Italy
    Interdepartmental Laboratory of Territorial Planning (LUPT), University of Naples Federico II, Via Toledo 402, 80134 Naples, Italy
    Task Force on Smart and Sustainable Mobility SUM, University of Naples Federico II, 80134 Napoli, Italy)

  • Pier Francesco Recchi

    (Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, Via Università 100, 80055 Portici, Italy)

  • Ester Scotto di Perta

    (Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, Via Università 100, 80055 Portici, Italy)

  • Stefania Pindozzi

    (Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, Via Università 100, 80055 Portici, Italy
    Interdepartmental Laboratory of Territorial Planning (LUPT), University of Naples Federico II, Via Toledo 402, 80134 Naples, Italy
    Task Force on Smart and Sustainable Mobility SUM, University of Naples Federico II, 80134 Napoli, Italy
    BAT Center—Interuniversity Center for Studies on Bioinspired Agro-Environmental Technology, University of Naples Federico II, 80055 Portici, Italy)

Abstract

In the last two centuries, land-use change (LUC) has been the most important direct change driver for terrestrial ecosystems. In contrast with the consequent ecosystem degradation, forward-looking spatial policies and target landscape and land-use planning processes are needed from a sustainability perspective. The present paper proposes a framework of action, including different landscape-planning and ecological approaches: from spatial modelling to recognize LUC and build different scenarios, to ecosystem service (ES) assessment to evaluate possible environmental impacts. Three different scenarios were explored: Trend, No Tillage, and Energy crops. The sediment delivery ratio and carbon storage and sequestration ESs were assessed and compared for each scenario. The results show that regional development in line with past trends could lead to further land degradation (with ES value losses, in a decade, greater than 5%). Instead, the two scenarios proposed in compliance with EU policies could bring benefits, if only those related to moderate LUCs and respecting the naturally grass-vegetated land. The aim of the paper is to support decision makers and local communities in the landscape planning landscape planning process. From the local to global scale, guided and shared LUC management allows us to implement sustainable development, based not only on a deep knowledge of the physical environment but also of social and economic issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Cervelli & Pier Francesco Recchi & Ester Scotto di Perta & Stefania Pindozzi, 2023. "Land Use Change Scenario Building Combining Agricultural Development Policies, Landscape-Planning Approaches, and Ecosystem Service Assessment: A Case Study from the Campania Region (Italy)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:10:p:1865-:d:1251949
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Costanza, Robert & de Groot, Rudolf & Braat, Leon & Kubiszewski, Ida & Fioramonti, Lorenzo & Sutton, Paul & Farber, Steve & Grasso, Monica, 2017. "Twenty years of ecosystem services: How far have we come and how far do we still need to go?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 28(PA), pages 1-16.
    2. Davide Marino & Giampiero Mazzocchi & Davide Pellegrino & Veridiana Barucci, 2022. "Integrated Multi-Level Assessment of Ecosystem Services (ES): The Case of the Casal del Marmo Agricultural Park Area in Rome (Italy)," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, November.
    3. Montanarella, Luca & Panagos, Panos, 2021. "The relevance of sustainable soil management within the European Green Deal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
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    2. Leshan Du & Haiyan Liu & Haiou Liu & Wenhui Liu & Zhanjun Quan & Ying Zhang, 2024. "Value Assessment and Prediction of Regulating Ecosystem Services in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Huihui Wang & Hanyu Xue & Yunsong Yang & Wanlin He & Suru Liu & Yuhao Zhong & Xiaoyong Gao & Tingting Xu, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Eco-Environmental Effects Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change in China by an Integrated Cellular Automata and Markov Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-27, April.

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