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A Coupled InVEST-PLUS Model for the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Multi-Scenario Prediction Analysis

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  • Yan Zhang

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of Environmental Damage Assessment and Remediation, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Xiaoyong Liao

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Beijing Key Laboratory of Environmental Damage Assessment and Remediation, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Dongqi Sun

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

Abstract

In investigating the spatiotemporal patterns and spatial attributes of carbon storage across terrestrial ecosystems, there is a significant focus on improving regional carbon sequestration capabilities. Such endeavors are crucial for balancing land development with ecological preservation and promoting sustainable, low-carbon urban growth. This study employs the integrated InVEST-PLUS model to assess and predict changes in ecosystem carbon storage under various land use scenarios within the Chengdu urban cluster, a vital region in Central and Western China, by 2050. The results indicate the following. (1) A linkage between land use dynamics and ecosystem carbon storage changes: over two decades, a 7.5% decrease in arable land was observed alongside a 12.3% increase in urban areas, leading to an 8.2% net reduction in ecosystem carbon storage, equating to a loss of 1.6 million tons of carbon. (2) Carbon storage variations under four scenarios—natural development (NDS), urban development (UDS), farmland protection (FPS), and ecological protection (EPS)—highlight the impact of differing developmental and conservation policies on Chengdu’s carbon reserves. Projections until 2050 suggest a further 5% reduction in carbon storage under NDS without intervention, while EPS could potentially decrease carbon storage loss by 3%, emphasizing the importance of strategic land use planning and policy. This research provides a solid theoretical foundation for exploring the relationship between land use and carbon storage dynamics further. In summary, the findings highlight the necessity of incorporating ecological considerations into urban planning strategies. The InVEST-PLUS model not only sheds light on current challenges but also presents a method for forecasting and mitigating urbanization effects on ecosystem services, thus supporting sustainable development goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Zhang & Xiaoyong Liao & Dongqi Sun, 2024. "A Coupled InVEST-PLUS Model for the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Multi-Scenario Prediction Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:4:p:509-:d:1374967
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lam, Sharon T. & Conway, Tenley M., 2018. "Ecosystem services in urban land use planning policies: A case study of Ontario municipalities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 641-651.
    2. Bin Wang & Chunguang Hu & Jianxiong Li, 2022. "Coupling and Coordination Relationship between the Tourism Economy and Ecosystem Service Value in Southern Jiangsu, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Wang, Zhaoqi, 2019. "Estimating of terrestrial carbon storage and its internal carbon exchange under equilibrium state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 94-110.
    4. Huang, Daquan & Huang, Jing & Liu, Tao, 2019. "Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 422-435.
    5. Nianlong Han & Miao Yu & Peihong Jia, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Landscape Ecological Risk Simulation for Sustainable Development Goals: A Case Study on the Central Mountainous Area of Hainan Island," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-17, March.
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    1. Zeyuan Gong & Wei Liu & Jing Guo & Yi Su & Yapei Gao & Wanru Bu & Jun Ren & Chengying Li, 2024. "How to Achieve the Ecological Sustainability Goal of Ecologically Fragile Areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Multi-Scenario Simulation of Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomerations," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, October.

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