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Simulation of Urban Growth Boundary under the Guidance of Stock Development: A Case Study of Wuhan City

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  • Yang Zhang

    (School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
    Key Laboratory of Digital Mapping and Land Information Application, Ministry of Natural Resources, Wuhan 430079, China
    College of Geography and Planing, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    Digital Hu Huanyong Line Research Institute, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Xiaojiang Xia

    (College of Geography and Planing, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Jiandong Li

    (School of Economics and Management, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China)

  • Luge Xing

    (College of Geography and Planing, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Chengchao Yang

    (College of Geography and Planing, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Haofeng Wang

    (Information Center of Natural Resources and Planning of Wuhan City, Wuhan 430014, China
    Key Laboratory of City Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Wuhan 430014, China)

  • Xiaoai Dai

    (College of Geography and Planing, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    Digital Hu Huanyong Line Research Institute, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Jue Wang

    (Digital Hu Huanyong Line Research Institute, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    Business School, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

Abstract

The implementation of an urban growth boundary (UGB) can effectively control urban sprawl and promote efficient land use, which is crucial for future urban development. However, most of existing studies overlook the reuse of existing idle and inefficient land within the city in the delineation of UGBs. With China’s urban construction shifting from incremental development to stock development, this study focuses on Wuhan and presents a set of technical approaches for delineating UGBs with a stock development orientation. First, a built-up area composite index (POI&ISA) is constructed based on point of interest (POI) kernel density analysis and impervious surface index extraction to evaluate constructive levels in 2010 and 2020 and identify the urban vitality zone. Then, we combine the current land use status and control policies to divide the urban spatial development potential into five categories: urban vitality land, urban non-vitality land, other vitality land, other non-vitality land, and restricted development land. Finally, the PLUS model is applied in the analysis of the driving forces of land use change in Wuhan, simulating the UGBs in three stages of incremental development (2020–2030), incremental and stock development (2030–2040), and stock development (2040–2050). Finally, the PLUS model simulation projects the UGB areas to be 436.436 km 2 , 474.617 km 2 , and 520.396 km 2 for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. The predicted timespan of urban development extends up to 30 years, serving as a reliable reference for Wuhan’s long-term and near-term planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Zhang & Xiaojiang Xia & Jiandong Li & Luge Xing & Chengchao Yang & Haofeng Wang & Xiaoai Dai & Jue Wang, 2024. "Simulation of Urban Growth Boundary under the Guidance of Stock Development: A Case Study of Wuhan City," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:8:p:1174-:d:1446196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhipeng Lai & Chengjing Chen & Jianguo Chen & Zhuo Wu & Fang Wang & Shaoying Li, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use Change and Delineation of Urban Growth Boundaries in County Area: A Case Study of Xinxing County, Guangdong Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, September.
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