IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i7p4030-d781866.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-Scenario Landscape Ecological Risk Simulation for Sustainable Development Goals: A Case Study on the Central Mountainous Area of Hainan Island

Author

Listed:
  • Nianlong Han

    (School of Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China)

  • Miao Yu

    (School of Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China)

  • Peihong Jia

    (School of Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China)

Abstract

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the United Nations are focused on regional development and ecological security. Based on these SDGs, quantitative regional landscape ecological risk assessment is significant to realize regional sustainable development. This study took the central mountainous area (CMA) of Hainan Island as the research area, and combined SDGs and a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model to analyze multi-scenario land-use change and landscape ecological risk simulation. The study results show that the low ecological risk areas are located in the central hinterland of the CMA, and the high ecological risk areas are located on the northern and southern edges, with strong disturbances from human activities. The construction land in the CMA expanded drastically from 2010 to 2018, mainly invading forestland and grassland, leading to landscape fragmentation, which was the main cause of the increased ecological risk in the CMA landscape. The future multi-scenario simulations for SDGs show that under the scenario of natural development and economic development, the construction land and water area will significantly expand and the forest land will be dramatically reduced. Under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land will be restrained, and the area of forest land will increase. The results showed that the landscape ecological risks in the three simulated scenarios would be higher than in 2018, but the increase in the landscape ecological risks under the ecological protection scenario would be relatively slight. Forest land plays an essential role in maintaining the ecological security of the CMA. The expanding construction land in the CMA has led to landscape fragmentation and increased ecological risk. Therefore, it is necessary to protect the forest land in the CMA. In addition, construction and development should be limited in high-risk areas. Although the adoption of the ecological conservation scenario favors regional sustainability, it is still necessary to improve ecological protection policies such as ecological compensation to ensure the realization of other SDGs.

Suggested Citation

  • Nianlong Han & Miao Yu & Peihong Jia, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Landscape Ecological Risk Simulation for Sustainable Development Goals: A Case Study on the Central Mountainous Area of Hainan Island," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:7:p:4030-:d:781866
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/7/4030/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/7/4030/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joyeeta Gupta & Courtney Vegelin, 2016. "Sustainable development goals and inclusive development," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 433-448, June.
    2. Ying Li & Suiliang Huang, 2015. "Landscape Ecological Risk Responses to Land Use Change in the Luanhe River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-22, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wenqiang Zhou & Jinlong Wang & Yu Han & Ling Yang & Huafei Que & Rong Wang, 2023. "Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Haoran Fan & Qi Si & Wenming Dong & Gang Lu & Xinping Liu, 2023. "Land Use Change and Landscape Ecological Risk Prediction in Urumqi under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Renata Aguayo Lopes da Silva & Renato Cesar Gonçalves Robert & Thomas Purfürst, 2023. "How Is the Forest Sector’s Contribution to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Being Addressed? A Systematic Review of the Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Yan Zhang & Xiaoyong Liao & Dongqi Sun, 2024. "A Coupled InVEST-PLUS Model for the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Multi-Scenario Prediction Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, April.
    5. Nan Wang & Peijuan Zhu & Guohua Zhou & Xudong Xing & Yong Zhang, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk Response Based on Planning Control," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-29, November.
    6. Andrew Rule & Sarah-Eve Dill & Gordy Sun & Aidan Chen & Senan Khawaja & Ingrid Li & Vincent Zhang & Scott Rozelle, 2022. "Challenges and Opportunities in Aligning Conservation with Development in China’s National Parks: A Narrative Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-24, October.
    7. Sebastjan Lazar & Vojko Potočan & Dorota Klimecka-Tatar & Matevz Obrecht, 2022. "Boosting Sustainable Operations with Sustainable Supply Chain Modeling: A Case of Organizational Culture and Normative Commitment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-23, September.
    8. Qiming Wang & Kun Yang & Lixiao Li & Yanhui Zhu, 2022. "Assessing the Terrain Gradient Effect of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Dianchi Lake Basin of China Using Geo-Information Tupu Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-19, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peng Zeng & Sihui Wu & Zongyao Sun & Yujia Zhu & Yuqi Chen & Zhi Qiao & Liangwa Cai, 2021. "Does Rural Production–Living–Ecological Spaces Have a Preference for Regional Endowments? A Case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    2. Joyeeta Gupta & Aarti Gupta & Courtney Vegelin, 2022. "Equity, justice and the SDGs: lessons learnt from two decades of INEA scholarship," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 393-409, June.
    3. Joyeeta Gupta & Louis Lebel, 0. "Access and allocation in earth system governance: lessons learnt in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-18.
    4. Agni Kalfagianni & Oran R. Young, 2022. "The politics of multilateral environmental agreements lessons from 20 years of INEA," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 245-262, June.
    5. Freddie Sayi Siangulube & Mirjam A. F. Ros-Tonen & James Reed & Eric Rega Christophe Bayala & Terry Sunderland, 2023. "Spatial Tools for Inclusive Landscape Governance: Negotiating Land Use, Land-Cover Change, and Future Landscape Scenarios in Two Multistakeholder Platforms in Zambia," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, April.
    6. Yuan, Mei-Hua & Lo, Shang-Lien, 2020. "Developing indicators for the monitoring of the sustainability of food, energy, and water," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Suwan Lu & Guobin Fang & Mingtao Zhao, 2023. "Towards Inclusive Growth: Perspective of Regional Spatial Correlation Network in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Felipe Arenas-Torres & Miguel Bustamante-Ubilla & Roberto Campos-Troncoso, 2021. "The Incidence of Social Responsibility in the Adoption of Business Practices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-14, March.
    9. Bablu Kumar Dhar & Sabrina Maria Sarkar & Foster K. Ayittey, 2022. "Impact of social responsibility disclosure between implementation of green accounting and sustainable development: A study on heavily polluting companies in Bangladesh," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(1), pages 71-78, January.
    10. Jean-François Ruault & Alice Dupré La Tour & André Evette & Sandrine Allain & Jean-Marc Callois, 2022. "A biodiversity-employment framework to protect biodiversity," Post-Print hal-03365820, HAL.
    11. Professor Dr. Pradip Kumar Panday & Md Golam Rabbani & Md Mahbub Alam Prodip, 2022. "Can Social Business Tackle the Water Crisis in Bangladesh? An Analysis from Social Inclusion Perspective," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(12), pages 808-815, December.
    12. Jan Anton van Zanten & Rob van Tulder, 2020. "Beyond COVID-19: Applying “SDG logics” for resilient transformations," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 3(4), pages 451-464, December.
    13. Shaoyang Ren & Yinan Li & Zhen Peng & Mingqiang Yin & Xiao Liu, 2024. "Developing an Urban Environment Examination System by Incorporating Construction, Economic, Environmental, Cultural and Development Dimensions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-27, April.
    14. Neagu Olimpia, 2019. "Disparities Regarding Competitiveness, Human Capital And Inclusive Development In The Eu: A Cluster Analysis," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 61-71, February.
    15. Abdulkarim Hasan Rashed & Afzal Shah, 2021. "The role of private sector in the implementation of sustainable development goals," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 2931-2948, March.
    16. Tong Wu & Lucang Wang & Haiyang Liu, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Land Surface Thermal Landscape in Yangtze River Delta Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    17. Reyes-Menendez, Ana & Clemente-Mediavilla, Jorge & Villagra, Nuria, 2023. "Understanding STI and SDG with artificial intelligence: A review and research agenda for entrepreneurial action," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    18. Di Liu & Xiaoying Liang & Hai Chen & Hang Zhang & Nanzhao Mao, 2018. "A Quantitative Assessment of Comprehensive Ecological Risk for a Loess Erosion Gully: A Case Study of Dujiashi Gully, Northern Shaanxi Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, September.
    19. Jyh-Rong Chou, 2021. "A Scoping Review of Ontologies Relevant to Design Strategies in Response to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-27, September.
    20. Carmela Gargiulo & Antonio Sforza & Claudio Sterle & Floriana Zucaro, 2018. "An Optimization Model Fitting the Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment Tools," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:7:p:4030-:d:781866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.