IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2023i6p1262-d1175017.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quota and Space Allocations of New Urban Land Supported by Urban Growth Simulations: A Case Study of Guangzhou City, China

Author

Listed:
  • Xiang Li

    (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
    Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China)

  • Jiang Zhu

    (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
    Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China
    School of Architecture, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China)

  • Tao Liu

    (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
    Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China)

  • Xiangdong Yin

    (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
    Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China)

  • Jiangchun Yao

    (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
    Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China)

  • Hao Jiang

    (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
    Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China)

  • Bing Bu

    (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
    Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China)

  • Jianlong Yan

    (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
    Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China)

  • Yixuan Li

    (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
    Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China)

  • Zhangcheng Chen

    (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
    Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing, Monitoring and Early Warning, Guangzhou 510060, China)

Abstract

Previous allocations of new urban land were ineffective because they lacked synergy between quota and space, challenging the government planning authority. This study proposes a new and more reasonable urban land allocation method to guide the smart growth of cities. We used a logistic regression model and multisource data to explore the laws of urban growth and employed a cellular automata (CA) model to simulate this under inertial and constrained scenarios. In addition, the disparities between both scenarios concerning allocation were analyzed. We realized the synergy of quota and space allocations of new urban land through urban growth simulation. Further, the allocation of new urban land was more consistent with the development strategy of Guangzhou under a constrained scenario. The allocation of space was more regular and concentrated under a constrained scenario, which aligns with the requirements of the Government Land Space Planning. Additionally, in the constrained scenario, the bottom lines of cultivated land protection, ecological service, and geological safety were better controlled. This study compensated for the shortcomings of the disjoined quota and space allocations of new urban land and proved that a constrained scenario can more effectively promote reasonable urban growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiang Li & Jiang Zhu & Tao Liu & Xiangdong Yin & Jiangchun Yao & Hao Jiang & Bing Bu & Jianlong Yan & Yixuan Li & Zhangcheng Chen, 2023. "Quota and Space Allocations of New Urban Land Supported by Urban Growth Simulations: A Case Study of Guangzhou City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:6:p:1262-:d:1175017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/6/1262/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/6/1262/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jing Shi & Peiji Shi & Ziyang Wang & Lirong Wang & Yali Li, 2023. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Zhou, Ye & Huang, Chen & Wu, Tao & Zhang, Mingyue, 2023. "A novel spatio-temporal cellular automata model coupling partitioning with CNN-LSTM to urban land change simulation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    3. Jiangfu Liao & Lina Tang & Guofan Shao, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation to Predict Ecological Risk Posed by Urban Sprawl with Spontaneous Growth: A Case Study of Quanzhou," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-22, November.
    4. Zou, Yucheng & Yan, Lei & Zhang, Yanwei, 2023. "Game analysis of incremental income allocation in the marketization of rural collectively-owned commercial construction land under fairness preference," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Yunqian Zhang & Zhenjie Chen & Qianwen Cheng & Chen Zhou & Penghui Jiang & Manchun Li & Dong Chen, 2016. "Quota Restrictions on Land Use for Decelerating Urban Sprawl of Mega City: A Case Study of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-17, September.
    6. Wang, Liye & Zhang, Siyu & Tang, Lanping & Lu, Yanchi & Liu, Yanfang & Liu, Yaolin, 2022. "Optimizing distribution of urban land on the basis of urban land use intensity at prefectural city scale in mainland China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. George D. Bathrellos & Hariklia D. Skilodimou, 2019. "Land Use Planning for Natural Hazards," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-4, August.
    8. Nils-Bastian Heidenreich & Anja Schindler & Stefan Sperlich, 2013. "Bandwidth selection for kernel density estimation: a review of fully automatic selectors," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(4), pages 403-433, October.
    9. Liqin Zhang & Ruibo Han & Huhua Cao, 2021. "Understanding Urban Land Growth through a Social-Spatial Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, March.
    10. Jun Fu & Rui Ding & Yilin Zhang & Tao Zhou & Yiming Du & Yuqi Zhu & Linyu Du & Lina Peng & Jian Zou & Wenqian Xiao, 2022. "The Spatial-Temporal Transition and Influencing Factors of Green and Low-Carbon Utilization Efficiency of Urban Land in China under the Goal of Carbon Neutralization," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Sophie Thiam & Eric Ariel L. Salas & Nina Rholan Hounguè & Adrian Delos Santos Almoradie & Sarah Verleysdonk & Julien G. Adounkpe & Kossi Komi, 2022. "Modelling Land Use and Land Cover in the Transboundary Mono River Catchment of Togo and Benin Using Markov Chain and Stakeholder’s Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-22, March.
    12. Yingzi Chen & Yaqi Hu & Lina Lai, 2022. "Demography-Oriented Urban Spatial Matching of Service Facilities: Case Study of Changchun, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, September.
    13. Meng-Ting Tsai & Hung-Wen Chang, 2023. "Contribution of Accessibility to Urban Resilience and Evacuation Planning Using Spatial Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Xi, Qiangmin & Mei, Lin, 2022. "How did development zones affect China’s land transfers? The scale, marketization, and resource allocation effect," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    15. Xiaoyang Liu & Weihao Shi & Sen Zhang, 2022. "Progress of Research on Urban Growth Boundary and Its Implications in Chinese Studies Based on Bibliometric Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Huaizhi Tang & Jiacheng Niu & Zibing Niu & Qi Liu & Yuanfang Huang & Wenju Yun & Chongyang Shen & Zejun Huo, 2023. "System Cognition and Analytic Technology of Cultivated Land Quality from a Data Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, January.
    17. Mengcheng Wang & Nana Lin & Youming Dong & Yifeng Tang, 2023. "How Does New Energy Demonstration City Policy Promote Urban Land Use Efficiency in China? The Mediating Effect of Industrial Structure," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, May.
    18. Hassan Mahmoudzadeh & Asghar Abedini & Farshid Aram, 2022. "Urban Growth Modeling and Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Analysis in a Metropolitan Area (Case Study: Tabriz)," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, November.
    19. Lu Yang & Zhi Zhang & Weikang Zhang & Tong Zhang & Huan Meng & Hongwei Yan & Yue Shen & Zeqian Li & Xiaotian Ma, 2023. "Wetland Park Planning and Management Based on the Valuation of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Tieling Lotus Lake National Wetland Park (LLNWP), China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-26, February.
    20. Rui Zhou & Hao Zhang & Xin-Yue Ye & Xin-Jun Wang & Hai-Long Su, 2016. "The Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundaries Using the CLUE-S Land-Use Change Model: Study on Xinzhuang Town, Changshu City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
    21. Hua’an Wu & Bo Zeng & Meng Zhou, 2017. "Forecasting the Water Demand in Chongqing, China Using a Grey Prediction Model and Recommendations for the Sustainable Development of Urban Water Consumption," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-12, November.
    22. Tang, Peng & Feng, Yue & Li, Min & Zhang, Yanyan, 2021. "Can the performance evaluation change from central government suppress illegal land use in local governments? A new interpretation of Chinese decentralisation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    23. Meie Deng & Anlu Zhang & Wei Luo & Canwei Hu & Meng Huang & Congxi Cheng, 2023. "Impact of Governance Structure of Rural Collective Economic Organizations on Trading Efficiency of Collective Construction Land of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    24. Parviz Azizi & Ali Soltani & Farokh Bagheri & Shahrzad Sharifi & Mehdi Mikaeili, 2022. "An Integrated Modelling Approach to Urban Growth and Land Use/Cover Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-26, October.
    25. Yan Yu & Chenhe Zhang & Weilin Ma & Yaxin Xu & Xinxin Gao, 2022. "Urban Growth Boundaries Delineation under Multi-Objective Constraints from the Perspective of Humanism and Low-Carbon Concept," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, December.
    26. Kai Xu & Zisheng Yang, 2022. "Research on the Value of Land Ecological Service in Yunnan Province Based on the Perspective of Spatial Pattern," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-15, August.
    27. Yang Chen & Wenze Yue & Xue Liu & Linlin Zhang & Ye’an Chen, 2021. "Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yishao Shi & Jie Wu & Shouzheng Shi, 2017. "Study of the Simulated Expansion Boundary of Construction Land in Shanghai Based on a SLEUTH Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Fei Bao & Zhenzhi Zhao, 2022. "“Takeover” and “Activation” Effects of National Strategies for Industrial Relocation—Based on the Perspective of Marketisation of Land Elements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Inés Barbeito & Ricardo Cao & Stefan Sperlich, 2023. "Bandwidth selection for statistical matching and prediction," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 32(1), pages 418-446, March.
    4. Shuguang Liu & Jiayi Wang & Yin Long, 2023. "Research into the Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Technological Innovation in China’s Natural Gas Industry from the Perspective of Energy Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-34, April.
    5. Abdelmonaim Okacha & Adil Salhi & Kamal Abdelrahman & Hamid Fattasse & Kamal Lahrichi & Kaoutar Bakhouya & Biraj Kanti Mondal, 2024. "Balancing Environmental and Human Needs: Geographic Information System-Based Analytical Hierarchy Process Land Suitability Planning for Emerging Urban Areas in Bni Bouayach Amid Urban Transformation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-24, July.
    6. Kangxu Wang & Weifeng Wang & Tongtong Li & Shengjun Wen & Xin Fu & Xinhao Wang, 2023. "Optimizing Living Service Amenities for Diverse Urban Residents: A Supply and Demand Balancing Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-24, August.
    7. Christoph Lambio & Tillman Schmitz & Richard Elson & Jeffrey Butler & Alexandra Roth & Silke Feller & Nicolai Savaskan & Tobia Lakes, 2023. "Exploring the Spatial Relative Risk of COVID-19 in Berlin-Neukölln," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-22, May.
    8. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    9. Max Köhler & Anja Schindler & Stefan Sperlich, 2014. "A Review and Comparison of Bandwidth Selection Methods for Kernel Regression," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 82(2), pages 243-274, August.
    10. Peiyuan Zhang & Jiaming Li & Wenzhong Zhang, 2022. "Characteristics of High-Technology Industry Migration within Metropolitan Areas—A Case Study of Beijing Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.
    11. Zhenhui Huang & Wei Wei & Ying Han & Shuangying Ding & Ke Tang, 2022. "The Coupling Coordination Evolutionary Analysis of Tourism-Ecological Environment-Public Service for the Yellow River Basin of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-23, July.
    12. M. Hiabu & E. Mammen & M. D. Martìnez-Miranda & J. P. Nielsen, 2016. "In-sample forecasting with local linear survival densities," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 103(4), pages 843-859.
    13. Troisi, Roberta, 2022. "Illegal land use by Italian firms: An empirical analysis through the lens of isomorphism," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Fanyu Zhang & Jianbing Peng & Xiaowei Huang & Hengxing Lan, 2021. "Hazard assessment and mitigation of non-seismically fatal landslides in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 785-804, March.
    15. Yicheng Tang & Xinyan Zhu & Wei Guo & Xinyue Ye & Tao Hu & Yaxin Fan & Faming Zhang, 2017. "Non-Homogeneous Diffusion of Residential Crime in Urban China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, June.
    16. Liu, Yong & Fan, Peilei & Yue, Wenze & Song, Yan, 2018. "Impacts of land finance on urban sprawl in China: The case of Chongqing," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 420-432.
    17. Jinxia Zhu & Qian Xu & Yi Pan & Lefeng Qiu & Yi Peng & Haijun Bao, 2018. "Land-Acquisition and Resettlement (LAR) Conflicts: A Perspective of Spatial Injustice of Urban Public Resources Allocation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15, March.
    18. Yu-Feng Zhao & Ming-Huan Shou & Zheng-Xin Wang, 2020. "Prediction of the Number of Patients Infected with COVID-19 Based on Rolling Grey Verhulst Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-20, June.
    19. Jiang Zhu & Xiang Li & Huiming Huang & Xiangdong Yin & Jiangchun Yao & Tao Liu & Jiexuan Wu & Zhangcheng Chen, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions According to Major Function-Oriented Zones: A Case Study of Guangdong Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-20, January.
    20. Hariklia D. Skilodimou & George D. Bathrellos, 2021. "Natural and Technological Hazards in Urban Areas: Assessment, Planning and Solutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-5, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:6:p:1262-:d:1175017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.