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Bandwidth selection for statistical matching and prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Inés Barbeito

    (Universidade da Coruña)

  • Ricardo Cao

    (Universidade da Coruña)

  • Stefan Sperlich

    (Université de Genève)

Abstract

While there exist many bandwidth selectors for estimation, bandwidth selection for statistical matching and prediction has hardly been studied so far. We introduce a computationally attractive selector for nonparametric out-of-sample prediction problems like data matching, impact evaluation, scenario simulations or imputing missings. Even though the method is bootstrap based, we can derive closed expressions for the criterion function which avoids the need of Monte Carlo approximations. We study both, asymptotic and finite sample performance. The derived consistency, convergence rate and extensive simulation studies show the successful operation of the selector. The method is illustrated by applying it to real data for studying the gender wage gap in Spain. Specifically, the salary of Spanish women is predicted nonparametrically by the wage equation estimated for men while conditioned on their own (i.e., women’s) characteristics. An important discrepancy between observed and predicted wages is found, exhibiting a serious gender wage gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Inés Barbeito & Ricardo Cao & Stefan Sperlich, 2023. "Bandwidth selection for statistical matching and prediction," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 32(1), pages 418-446, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:testjl:v:32:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11749-022-00838-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11749-022-00838-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Max Köhler & Anja Schindler & Stefan Sperlich, 2014. "A Review and Comparison of Bandwidth Selection Methods for Kernel Regression," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 82(2), pages 243-274, August.
    2. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2017. "The Gender Wage Gap: Extent, Trends, and Explanations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 789-865, September.
    3. Ignacio Moral-Arce & Stefan Sperlich & Ana Fernández-Saínz & Maria Roca, 2012. "Trends in the Gender Pay Gap in Spain: A Semiparametric Analysis," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 173-195, June.
    4. Jing Dai & Stefan Sperlich & Walter Zucchini, 2016. "A Simple Method for Predicting Distributions by Means of Covariates with Examples from Poverty and Health Economics," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 152(1), pages 49-80, January.
    5. Jenny Häggström & Xavier Luna, 2014. "Targeted smoothing parameter selection for estimating average causal effects," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(6), pages 1727-1748, December.
    6. Nils-Bastian Heidenreich & Anja Schindler & Stefan Sperlich, 2013. "Bandwidth selection for kernel density estimation: a review of fully automatic selectors," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(4), pages 403-433, October.
    7. repec:adr:anecst:y:2008:i:91-92:p:10 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Rolf Tschernig & Lijian Yang, 2000. "Nonparametric Lag Selection for Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 457-487, July.
    9. Jose C. Galdo & Jeffrey Smith & Dan Black, 2008. "Bandwidth Selection and the Estimation of Treatment Effects with Unbalanced Data," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 91-92, pages 189-216.
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