Investigating Urban Flooding and Nutrient Export under Different Urban Development Scenarios in the Rouge River Watershed in Michigan, USA

Adverse environmental impacts in the watershed are driven by urbanization, which is reflected by land use and land cover (LULC) transitions, such as increased impervious surfaces, industrial land expansion, and green space reduction. Some adverse impacts on the water environment include urban flooding and water quality degradation. Our study area, the Rouge River Watershed, has been susceptible to accelerated urbanization and degradation of ecosystems. Employing the Land Change Modeler (LCM), we designed four alternative urban development scenarios for 2023. Subsequently, leveraging the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), we utilized two models—Nutrient Delivery Ratio (NDR) and Flood Risk Mitigation (UFRM)—to evaluate and compare the performance of these scenarios, as well as the situation in 2019, in terms of nutrient export and urban flooding. After simulating these scenarios, we determined that prioritizing the medium- and high-intensity development scenario to protect open space outperforms other scenarios in nutrient export. However, the four scenarios could not exhibit significant differences in urban flooding mitigation. Thus, we propose balanced and integrative strategies, such as planning green infrastructure and compact development, to foster ecological and economic growth, and enhance the Rouge River Watershed’s resilience against natural disasters for a sustainable future.