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Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial Scales

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  • Jianqiao Zhao

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Beijing 100084, China
    Contributed equally.)

  • Yue Cao

    (Institute for National Parks, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Department of Landscape Architecture, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Contributed equally.)

  • Le Yu

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Xiaoxuan Liu

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Yichuan Shi

    (Conservation International, Beijing 100027, China)

  • Xiaoping Liu

    (Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, China)

  • Rui Yang

    (Institute for National Parks, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Department of Landscape Architecture, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Peng Gong

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Beijing 100084, China
    Department of Geography and Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)

Abstract

Biodiversity conservation is the cornerstone for sustainable development. Bold conservation targets provide the last opportunities to halt the human-driven mass extinction. Recently, bold conservation targets have been proposed to protect 30% or 50% of Earth. However, little is known about its potential impacts on cropland. We identify potential cropland losses when 30% and 50% of global terrestrial area is given back to nature by 2030/2050, at three spatial scales (global, biome and country) and using two approaches (“nature-only landscapes” and “shared landscapes”). We find that different targets, applied scales and approaches will lead to different cropland losses: (1) At the global scale, it is possible to protect 50% of the Earth while having minimum cropland losses. (2) At biome scale, 0.64% and 8.54% cropland will be lost globally in 2030 and 2050 under the nature-only approach while by contrast, the shared approach substantially reduces the number of countries confronted by cropland losses, demanding only 0% and 2.59% of global cropland losses in 2030 and 2050. (3) At the national scale, the nature-only approach causes losses of 3.58% and 10.73% of global cropland in 2030 and 2050, while the shared approach requires 0.77% and 7.55% cropland in 2030 and 2050. Our results indicate that bold conservation targets could be considered, especially when adopting the shared approach, and we suggest adopting ambitious targets (protecting at least 30% by 2030) at the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP 15) to ensure a sustainable future for Earth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianqiao Zhao & Yue Cao & Le Yu & Xiaoxuan Liu & Yichuan Shi & Xiaoping Liu & Rui Yang & Peng Gong, 2021. "Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial Scales," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:7:p:704-:d:588264
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amy Molotoks & Matthias Kuhnert & Terence P. Dawson & Pete Smith, 2017. "Global Hotspots of Conflict Risk between Food Security and Biodiversity Conservation," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-15, October.
    2. Georgina M. Mace & Mike Barrett & Neil D. Burgess & Sarah E. Cornell & Robin Freeman & Monique Grooten & Andy Purvis, 2018. "Aiming higher to bend the curve of biodiversity loss," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 448-451, September.
    3. Guangzhao Chen & Xia Li & Xiaoping Liu & Yimin Chen & Xun Liang & Jiye Leng & Xiaocong Xu & Weilin Liao & Yue’an Qiu & Qianlian Wu & Kangning Huang, 2020. "Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Zia Mehrabi & Erle C. Ellis & Navin Ramankutty, 2018. "The challenge of feeding the world while conserving half the planet," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(8), pages 409-412, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bastian Bertzky & Colleen Corrigan & Susan Snyman, 2022. "Planning Effective Conservation Landscapes for Nature and People: An Editorial Overview," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-4, July.

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