IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v10y2021i4p379-d530434.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of Land-Use Scenarios at a National Scale Using Intensity Analysis and Figure of Merit Components

Author

Listed:
  • Kikuko Shoyama

    (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba 305-0006, Ibaraki, Japan)

Abstract

To address the impacts of future land changes on biodiversity and ecosystem services, land-use scenarios have been developed at the national scale in Japan. However, the validation of land-use scenarios remains a challenge owing to the lack of an appropriate validation method. This research developed land-use maps for 10 land-use categories to calibrate a land-change model for the 1987–1998 period, simulate changes during the 1998–2014 period, and validate the simulation for the 1998–2014 period. Following an established method, this study assessed the three types of land change: (1) reference change during the calibration time interval, (2) simulation change during the validation time interval, and (3) reference change during the validation time interval, using intensity analysis and figure of merit components (hits, misses, and false alarms). The results revealed the cause of the low accuracy of the national scale land-use scenarios as well as priority solutions, such as aligning the underlying spatial vegetation maps and improving the model to reduce two types of disagreement between the simulation and reference maps. These findings should help to improve the accuracy of model predictions and help to better inform policymakers during the decision-making process.

Suggested Citation

  • Kikuko Shoyama, 2021. "Assessment of Land-Use Scenarios at a National Scale Using Intensity Analysis and Figure of Merit Components," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-13, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:4:p:379-:d:530434
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/4/379/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/4/379/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xia Li & Guangzhao Chen & Xiaoping Liu & Xun Liang & Shaojian Wang & Yimin Chen & Fengsong Pei & Xiaocong Xu, 2017. "A New Global Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Product at a 1-km Resolution for 2010 to 2100 Based on Human–Environment Interactions," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(5), pages 1040-1059, September.
    2. Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008. "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 11-37, March.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(16), pages 7634-7641, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Polina Lemenkova & Olivier Debeir, 2023. "Quantitative Morphometric 3D Terrain Analysis of Japan Using Scripts of GMT and R," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zutao Ouyang & Pietro Sciusco & Tong Jiao & Sarah Feron & Cheyenne Lei & Fei Li & Ranjeet John & Peilei Fan & Xia Li & Christopher A. Williams & Guangzhao Chen & Chenghao Wang & Jiquan Chen, 2022. "Albedo changes caused by future urbanization contribute to global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Penny, Jessica & Ordens, Carlos M. & Barnett, Steve & Djordjević, Slobodan & Chen, Albert S., 2023. "Vineyards, vegetables or business-as-usual? Stakeholder-informed land use change modelling to predict the future of a groundwater-dependent prime-wine region under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    3. Zuzheng Li & Xiaoqin Cheng & Hairong Han, 2020. "Analyzing Land-Use Change Scenarios for Ecosystem Services and their Trade-Offs in the Ecological Conservation Area in Beijing, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-20, November.
    4. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman & Burak Güneralp, 2020. "A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Jinyao Lin & Tongli Chen & Qiazi Han, 2018. "Simulating and Predicting the Impacts of Light Rail Transit Systems on Urban Land Use by Using Cellular Automata: A Case Study of Dongguan, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    6. Liu, Xiaoping & Ou, Jinpei & Chen, Yimin & Wang, Shaojian & Li, Xia & Jiao, Limin & Liu, Yaolin, 2019. "Scenario simulation of urban energy-related CO2 emissions by coupling the socioeconomic factors and spatial structures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1163-1178.
    7. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman, 2019. "Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
    9. David Klenert & Franziska Funke & Linus Mattauch & Brian O’Callaghan, 2020. "Five Lessons from COVID-19 for Advancing Climate Change Mitigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 751-778, August.
    10. Shuting Bai & Jiuchun Yang & Yubo Zhang & Fengqin Yan & Lingxue Yu & Shuwen Zhang, 2022. "Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs Based on Land-Use Simulation: A Case Study in the Farming–Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, July.
    11. Aritta Suwarno & Meine van Noordwijk & Hans-Peter Weikard & Desi Suyamto, 2018. "Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 211-229, February.
    12. Yuanyuan Yang & Shuwen Zhang & Jiuchun Yang & Xiaoshi Xing & Dongyan Wang, 2015. "Using a Cellular Automata-Markov Model to Reconstruct Spatial Land-Use Patterns in Zhenlai County, Northeast China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-21, May.
    13. D'Alberto, Riccardo & Zavalloni, Matteo & Raggi, Meri & Viaggi, Davide, 2021. "A Statistical Matching approach to reproduce the heterogeneity of willingness to pay in benefit transfer," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Bonoua Faye & Guoming Du & Edmée Mbaye & Chang’an Liang & Tidiane Sané & Ruhao Xue, 2023. "Assessing the Spatial Agricultural Land Use Transition in Thiès Region, Senegal, and Its Potential Driving Factors," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, March.
    15. Yuxue Yang & Xuejiao Tan & Yafei Shi & Jun Deng, 2023. "What are the core concerns of policy analysis? A multidisciplinary investigation based on in-depth bibliometric analysis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    16. Rifat, Shaikh Abdullah Al & Liu, Weibo, 2022. "Predicting future urban growth scenarios and potential urban flood exposure using Artificial Neural Network-Markov Chain model in Miami Metropolitan Area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Jing Yang & Feng Shi & Yizhong Sun & Jie Zhu, 2019. "A Cellular Automata Model Constrained by Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of the Urban Development Strategy for Simulating Land-use Change: A Case Study in Nanjing City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-19, July.
    18. Brian Pickard & Joshua Gray & Ross Meentemeyer, 2017. "Comparing Quantity, Allocation and Configuration Accuracy of Multiple Land Change Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, August.
    19. Ju-Sung Lee & Tatiana Filatova & Arika Ligmann-Zielinska & Behrooz Hassani-Mahmooei & Forrest Stonedahl & Iris Lorscheid & Alexey Voinov & J. Gareth Polhill & Zhanli Sun & Dawn C. Parker, 2015. "The Complexities of Agent-Based Modeling Output Analysis," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(4), pages 1-4.
    20. Zhang, Yan & Chang, Xia & Liu, Yanfang & Lu, Yanchi & Wang, Yiheng & Liu, Yaolin, 2021. "Urban expansion simulation under constraint of multiple ecosystem services (MESs) based on cellular automata (CA)-Markov model: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:4:p:379-:d:530434. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.