IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v23y2018i2d10.1007_s11027-016-9721-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)

Author

Listed:
  • Aritta Suwarno

    (Wageningen University)

  • Meine van Noordwijk

    (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), SE Asia program
    Wageningen University)

  • Hans-Peter Weikard

    (Wageningen University)

  • Desi Suyamto

    (Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR))

Abstract

The Indonesian government recently confirmed its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to mitigate global climate change. A forest moratorium policy that protects forest and peatland is a significant part of the INDCs; however, its effectiveness is unclear in the face of complex land-use and land-cover change. This study aims to assess the dynamics of land-use change and ecosystem service supply as a function of local decision-making. We developed an agent-based model, Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES), and used it to explore the possible effects of the forest moratorium policy on the land-use decisions of private companies and communities. Our simulations for two districts in Central Kalimantan show that the current implementation of the forest moratorium policy is not effective in reducing forest conversion and carbon emissions. This is because companies continue to invest in converting secondary forest on mineral soils and the moratorium does not affect community decision-making. A policy that combines a forest moratorium with livelihood support and increases farm-gate prices of forest and agroforestry products could increase the local communities’ benefits from conservation. Forest and agroforestry areas that are profitable and competitive are more likely to be conserved and reduce potential carbon emission by about 36 %. The results for the two districts, with different pressures on local resources, suggest that appropriate additional measures require local fine-tuning. The LUCES model could be an ex ante tool to facilitate such fine-tuning and help the Indonesian government achieve its INDC goals as part of a wider sustainable development policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Aritta Suwarno & Meine van Noordwijk & Hans-Peter Weikard & Desi Suyamto, 2018. "Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 211-229, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11027-016-9721-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-016-9721-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-016-9721-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11027-016-9721-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Suwarno, Aritta & Hein, Lars & Sumarga, Elham, 2015. "Governance, Decentralisation and Deforestation: The Case of Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 54(1), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Rachmat Mulia & Atiek Widayati & Suyanto & Putra Agung & Muhammad Zulkarnain, 2014. "Low carbon emission development strategies for Jambi, Indonesia: simulation and trade-off analysis using the FALLOW model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 773-788, August.
    3. Kemkes, Robin J. & Farley, Joshua & Koliba, Christopher J., 2010. "Determining when payments are an effective policy approach to ecosystem service provision," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 2069-2074, September.
    4. Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008. "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 11-37, March.
    5. McCann, Laura, 2013. "Transaction costs and environmental policy design," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 253-262.
    6. Abram, Nicola K. & Meijaard, Erik & Ancrenaz, Marc & Runting, Rebecca K. & Wells, Jessie A. & Gaveau, David & Pellier, Anne-Sophie & Mengersen, Kerrie, 2014. "Spatially explicit perceptions of ecosystem services and land cover change in forested regions of Borneo," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 116-127.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuping Bai & Zhe Zhao & Chuyao Weng & Wenxuan Wang & Yecui Hu, 2021. "Scenario-Based Analysis of Land Use Competition and Sustainable Land Development in Zhangye of the Heihe River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Ekawati, Sulistya & Subarudi, & Budiningsih, Kushartati & Sari, Galih Kartika & Muttaqin, Muhammad Zahrul, 2019. "Policies affecting the implementation of REDD+ in Indonesia (cases in Papua, Riau and Central Kalimantan)," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Beatrice Nöldeke & Etti Winter & Yves Laumonier & Trifosa Simamora, 2021. "Simulating Agroforestry Adoption in Rural Indonesia: The Potential of Trees on Farms for Livelihoods and Environment," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-31, April.
    4. Edi Purwanto & Hery Santoso & Idsert Jelsma & Atiek Widayati & Hunggul Y. S. H. Nugroho & Meine van Noordwijk, 2020. "Agroforestry as Policy Option for Forest-Zone Oil Palm Production in Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-34, December.
    5. Leijten, Floris & Sim, Sarah & King, Henry & Verburg, Peter H., 2021. "Local deforestation spillovers induced by forest moratoria: Evidence from Indonesia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Otto, Ilona M. & Wiedermann, Marc & Cremades, Roger & Donges, Jonathan F. & Auer, Cornelia & Lucht, Wolfgang, 2020. "Human agency in the Anthropocene," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    7. Dang, Anh Nguyet & Jackson, Bethanna Marie & Benavidez, Rubianca & Tomscha, Stephanie Anne, 2021. "Review of ecosystem service assessments: Pathways for policy integration in Southeast Asia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Meine van Noordwijk & Vincent Gitz & Peter A. Minang & Sonya Dewi & Beria Leimona & Lalisa Duguma & Nathanaël Pingault & Alexandre Meybeck, 2020. "People-Centric Nature-Based Land Restoration through Agroforestry: A Typology," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-29, July.
    9. L. Kiely & D. V. Spracklen & S. R. Arnold & E. Papargyropoulou & L. Conibear & C. Wiedinmyer & C. Knote & H. A. Adrianto, 2021. "Assessing costs of Indonesian fires and the benefits of restoring peatland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hejnowicz, Adam P. & Raffaelli, David G. & Rudd, Murray A. & White, Piran C.L., 2014. "Evaluating the outcomes of payments for ecosystem services programmes using a capital asset framework," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 83-97.
    2. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Smith, Helen F. & Sullivan, Caroline A., 2014. "Ecosystem services within agricultural landscapes—Farmers' perceptions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 72-80.
    4. Rodríguez-Ortega, T. & Olaizola, A.M. & Bernués, A., 2018. "A novel management-based system of payments for ecosystem services for targeted agri-environmental policy," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 34(PA), pages 74-84.
    5. Baudry, Marc & Faure, Anouk & Quemin, Simon, 2021. "Emissions trading with transaction costs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Miranda, Bruno Varella & de Oliveira, Gustavo Magalhães, 2023. "Assessing the performance of voluntary environmental agreements under high monitoring costs: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    7. Mark E. Eiswerth & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2017. "Maximizing Returns from Payments for Ecosystem Services: Incorporating Externality Effects of Land Management," Working Papers 2017-06, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    8. Cooper, Nigel & Brady, Emily & Steen, Helen & Bryce, Rosalind, 2016. "Aesthetic and spiritual values of ecosystems: Recognising the ontological and axiological plurality of cultural ecosystem ‘services’," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 21(PB), pages 218-229.
    9. Pham, Thu Thuy & Loft, Lasse & Bennett, Karen & Phuong, Vu Tan & Dung, Le Ngoc & Brunner, Jake, 2015. "Monitoring and evaluation of Payment for Forest Environmental Services in Vietnam: From myth to reality," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 220-229.
    10. Hong Shi & Ji Yang & Qijuan Liu & Taohong Li & Ning Chris Chen, 2024. "Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on Fraction Vegetation Coverage Based on PLUS-Dimidiate Pixel Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-18, November.
    11. Mangubhai, Sangeeta & Sykes, Helen & Manley, Marita & Vukikomoala, Kiji & Beattie, Madeline, 2020. "Contributions of tourism-based Marine Conservation Agreements to natural resource management in Fiji," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    12. Ju-Sung Lee & Tatiana Filatova & Arika Ligmann-Zielinska & Behrooz Hassani-Mahmooei & Forrest Stonedahl & Iris Lorscheid & Alexey Voinov & J. Gareth Polhill & Zhanli Sun & Dawn C. Parker, 2015. "The Complexities of Agent-Based Modeling Output Analysis," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(4), pages 1-4.
    13. Meine van Noordwijk & Robin Matthews & Fahmuddin Agus & Jenny Farmer & Louis Verchot & Kristell Hergoualc’h & Sebastian Persch & Hesti Tata & Betha Lusiana & Atiek Widayati & Sonya Dewi, 2014. "Mud, muddle and models in the knowledge value-chain to action on tropical peatland conservation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 887-905, August.
    14. Sattler, Claudia & Trampnau, Susanne & Schomers, Sarah & Meyer, Claas & Matzdorf, Bettina, 2013. "Multi-classification of payments for ecosystem services: How do classification characteristics relate to overall PES success?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 31-45.
    15. Margaret Gitau & Nathaniel Bailey, 2012. "Multi-Layer Assessment of Land Use and Related Changes for Decision Support in a Coastal Zone Watershed," Land, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-27, December.
    16. Xiaoli Hu & Xin Li & Ling Lu, 2018. "Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    17. Charlotte Shade & Peleg Kremer, 2019. "Predicting Land Use Changes in Philadelphia Following Green Infrastructure Policies," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-19, February.
    18. Wu, Wei & Yeager, Kevin M. & Peterson, Mark S. & Fulford, Richard S., 2015. "Neutral models as a way to evaluate the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 303(C), pages 55-69.
    19. Phan, Thu-Ha Dang & Brouwer, Roy & Davidson, Marc David, 2017. "A Global Survey and Review of the Determinants of Transaction Costs of Forestry Carbon Projects," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1-10.
    20. Fan, Shengyue & He, Miao & Zhang, Tianyu & Huo, Yajing & Fan, Di, 2022. "Credibility measurement as a tool for conserving nature: Chinese herders’ livelihood capitals and payment for grassland ecosystem services," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11027-016-9721-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.