IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v10y2021i1p59-d478345.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Return of Wooded Landscapes in Wales: An Exploration of Possible Post-Brexit Futures

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Amir Manzoor

    (School of Agriculture, Policy & Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6EU, UK
    Department of Forestry & Range Management, Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan, Multan 600 00, Pakistan)

  • Geoffrey Griffiths

    (Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6EU, UK)

  • David Christian Rose

    (School of Agriculture, Policy & Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6EU, UK)

  • Martin Lukac

    (School of Agriculture, Policy & Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6EU, UK
    Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

Changes in agricultural policy may have a rapid impact, even on landscapes which have taken millennia to form. Here we explore the potential impact of the UK leaving the EU as a catalyst for profound changes in the pastoral landscapes of Wales. Impending change of the trading regime governing agricultural produce, concurrent with public pressure to use agricultural subsidies for environmental goals, may lead to unforeseen consequences for the Welsh natural environment. We employ a combination of change demand modelling and a ‘story and simulation approach’ to project the effect of five hypothetical plausible scenarios on land use and land use change in Wales by 2030. We show that the most extreme trade scenario would result in a significant expansion of broadleaf woodland across much of Wales. By contrast, the ‘green futures’ scenario introduced to supersede the Common Agricultural Policy, results in significant expansion of woodland but not at the level seen with the more extreme trade scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Amir Manzoor & Geoffrey Griffiths & David Christian Rose & Martin Lukac, 2021. "The Return of Wooded Landscapes in Wales: An Exploration of Possible Post-Brexit Futures," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:1:p:59-:d:478345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/1/59/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/1/59/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jérémie Forney, 2016. "Blind spots in agri-environmental governance: some reflections and suggestions from Switzerland," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Carmen Hubbard & John Davis & Siyi Feng & David Harvey & Anne Liddon & Andrew Moxey & Mercy Ojo & Myles Patton & George Philippidis & Charles Scott & Shailesh Shrestha & Michael Wallace, 2018. "Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 17(2), pages 19-26, August.
    3. Jérémie Forney, 2016. "Blind spots in agri-environmental governance: some reflections and suggestions from Switzerland," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 97(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Derrick Wilkinson, 2020. "Defending British Farming Standards in Post‐Brexit Trade Negotiations," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 19(1), pages 4-10, April.
    5. Swetnam, Ruth D. & Tweed, Fiona S., 2018. "A tale of two landscapes: Transferring landscape quality metrics from Wales to Iceland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 565-576.
    6. Kotaro Iizuka & Brian A. Johnson & Akio Onishi & Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog & Isao Endo & Milben Bragais, 2017. "Modeling Future Urban Sprawl and Landscape Change in the Laguna de Bay Area, Philippines," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    7. Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho & Daniel Curtis Nepstad & Lisa M. Curran & Gustavo Coutinho Cerqueira & Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia & Claudia Azevedo Ramos & Eliane Voll & Alice McDonald & Paul Lefebvre, 2006. "Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7083), pages 520-523, March.
    8. Courage Kamusoko & Yukio Wada & Toru Furuya & Shunsuke Tomimura & Mitsuru Nasu & Khamma Homsysavath, 2013. "Simulating Future Forest Cover Changes in Pakxeng District, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR): Implications for Sustainable Forest Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Simoncini, Riccardo & Ring, Irene & Sandström, Camilla & Albert, Christian & Kasymov, Ulan & Arlettaz, Raphael, 2019. "Constraints and opportunities for mainstreaming biodiversity and ecosystem services in the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy: Insights from the IPBES assessment for Europe and Central Asia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berthet, Alice & Vincent, Audrey & Fleury, Philippe, 2021. "Water quality issues and agriculture: An international review of innovative policy schemes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Arnott, David & Chadwick, David R. & Wynne-Jones, Sophie & Jones, David L., 2021. "Vulnerability of British farms to post-Brexit subsidy removal, and implications for intensification, extensification and land sparing," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Assaf, Camila & Adams, Cristina & Ferreira, Fernando Fagundes & França, Helena, 2021. "Land use and cover modeling as a tool for analyzing nature conservation policies – A case study of Juréia-Itatins," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Véronique Lucas, 2021. "A “silent” agroecology: the significance of unrecognized sociotechnical changes made by French farmers," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 102(1), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Melindi-Ghidi, Paolo & Dedeurwaerdere, Tom & Fabbri, Giorgio, 2020. "Using environmental knowledge brokers to promote deep green agri-environment measures," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    6. Sébastien Marchand, 2011. "Technical Efficiency, Farm Size and Tropical Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazonian Forest," Working Papers halshs-00552981, HAL.
    7. Claudia Suzanne Marie Nathalie Vitel & Gabriel Cardoso Carrero & Mariano Colini Cenamo & Maya Leroy & Paulo Mauricio Lima A. Graça & Philip Martin Fearnside, 2013. "Land-use Change Modeling in a Brazilian Indigenous Reserve: Construction of a Reference Scenario for the Suruí REDD Project," Post-Print hal-01466513, HAL.
    8. Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero & Charlotte H. Chang & Toby A. Gardner & Mariluce Rezende Messias & William J. Sutherland & Fernanda A. C. Delben, 2017. "Habitat Loss on Rondon’s Marmoset Potential Distribution," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, January.
    9. George Cusworth & Jennifer Dodsworth, 2021. "Using the ‘good farmer’ concept to explore agricultural attitudes to the provision of public goods. A case study of participants in an English agri-environment scheme," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 38(4), pages 929-941, December.
    10. Gabriela Simonet & Julie Subervie & Driss Ezzine-De-Blas & Marina Cromberg & Amy Duchelle, 2015. "Paying smallholders not to cut down the amazon forest: impact evaluation of a REDD+ pilot project," Working Papers 1514, Chaire Economie du climat.
    11. Marcin Pigłowski, 2021. "The Intra-European Union Food Trade with the Relation to the Notifications in the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-19, February.
    12. José Gomis-Cebolla & Juan C. Jiménez-Muñoz & José A. Sobrino, 2016. "MODIS-Based Monthly LST Products over Amazonia under Different Cloud Mask Schemes," Data, MDPI, vol. 1(2), pages 1-10, July.
    13. Rifat, Shaikh Abdullah Al & Liu, Weibo, 2022. "Predicting future urban growth scenarios and potential urban flood exposure using Artificial Neural Network-Markov Chain model in Miami Metropolitan Area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Santos, Mário & Bastos, Rita & Cabral, João Alexandre, 2013. "Converting conventional ecological datasets in dynamic and dynamic spatially explicit simulations: Current advances and future applications of the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 258(C), pages 91-100.
    15. Franklin, Sergio L. & Pindyck, Robert S., 2018. "Tropical Forests, Tipping Points, and the Social Cost of Deforestation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 161-171.
    16. Žiga Malek & Veronica Zumpano & Haydar Hussin, 2018. "Forest management and future changes to ecosystem services in the Romanian Carpathians," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 1275-1291, June.
    17. Bernardo F. T. Rudorff & Marcos Adami & Joel Risso & Daniel Alves De Aguiar & Bernardo Pires & Daniel Amaral & Leandro Fabiani & Izabel Cecarelli, 2012. "Remote Sensing Images to Detect Soy Plantations in the Amazon Biome—The Soy Moratorium Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(5), pages 1-15, May.
    18. Barbara Sowińska-Świerkosz & Malwina Michalik-Śnieżek, 2020. "The Methodology of Landscape Quality (LQ) Indicators Analysis Based on Remote Sensing Data: Polish National Parks Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, April.
    19. Andrew P. Barnes, 2023. "The role of family life‐cycle events on persistent and transient inefficiencies in less favoured areas," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 295-315, February.
    20. Kaushal, Kevin R. & Navrud, Ståle, 2018. "Global Biodiversity Costs of Climate Change. Improving the damage assessment of species loss in Integrated Assessment Models," Working Paper Series 4-2018, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:1:p:59-:d:478345. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.