IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v17y2024i3p114-d1355020.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Food Security in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Lydia N. Kotur

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi 970001, Nigeria)

  • Goodness C. Aye

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi 970001, Nigeria
    Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Josephine B. Ayoola

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi 970001, Nigeria)

Abstract

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on food security in Nigeria, utilizing annual time series data from 1970 to 2021. The study used descriptive statistics, unit root tests, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and its associated Bounds tests to analyze the data. The analysis reveals that adult population, environmental degradation, exchange rate uncertainty (EXRU), financial deepening, food security (FS), government expenditure in agriculture uncertainty (GEAU), inflation, and interest rate uncertainty (INRU) exhibit positive mean values over the period, with varying degrees of volatility. Cointegration tests indicate a long-term relationship between EPU variables (GEAU, INRU, and EXRU) and food security. The study finds that cumulative positive and negative EPU variables have significant effects on food security in the short run. Specifically, negative GEAU, positive INRU, positive and negative EXRU have significant effects in the short run. In the long run, negative GEAU, positive and negative EXRU have significant effects on food security. Additionally, the research highlights asymmetric effects, showing that the influence of GEAU and EXRU on food security differs in the short- and long-run. The study underscores the importance of increased government expenditure on agriculture, control of exchange rate and interest rate uncertainty, and the reduction in economic policy uncertainty to mitigate risks in the agricultural sector and enhance food security. Recommendations include strategies to stabilize exchange rates to safeguard food supply and overall food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Lydia N. Kotur & Goodness C. Aye & Josephine B. Ayoola, 2024. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Food Security in Nigeria," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:3:p:114-:d:1355020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/3/114/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/3/114/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pangaribowo, Evita Hanie & Gerber, Nicolas & Torero, Maximo, 2013. "Food and Nutrition Security Indicators: A Review," Working Papers 147911, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adamou, Pr. Rabani & Ibrahim, Boubacar & Bonkaney, Abdou Latif & Seyni, Abdoul Aziz & Idrissa, Mamoudou, 2021. "Niger - Land, climate, energy, agriculture and development: A study in the Sudano-Sahel Initiative for Regional Development, Jobs, and Food Security," Working Papers 308806, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    2. Sadowski, Arkadiusz & Baer-Nawrocka, Agnieszka, 2016. "Food Self-Sufficiency Of The European Union Countries – Energetic Approach," Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland, vol. 40(2).
    3. Ouertani, Emna, 2016. "Food Security In Tunisia Within Water Scarcity The Relative Importance Of The Meat Sector," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(01), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Sonal Devesh & Abdullah M. Asrul Affendi, 2021. "Modelling the Impact of Oil Price on Food Imports: Case of Oman," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 113-120.
    5. Evans Sakyi Boadu, 2024. "Evaluating Ghana’s Youth-Centered Food-Security Policies: A Collaborative Governance Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Pemberton, Carlisle & Patterson-Andrews, Hazel & Sormeaux, Afiya De, 2016. "Relative Vulnerability Of Selected Caribbean States To Changes In Food Security Due To Tropical Storms And Hurricanes," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(01), pages 1-12, January.
    7. Osman, Abdelrahman Khidir & Ali, Adil M., 2021. "Sudan - Land, climate, energy, agriculture and development: A study in the Sudano-Sahel Initiative for Regional Development, Jobs, and Food Security," Working Papers 308810, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    8. Sandoval, Luis & Carpio, Carlos E, 2017. "Measuring Prevalence, Profiling and Evaluating the Potential of Policy Impacts using Two Food Security Indicators in Guatemala," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252715, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Ogunlesi, Ayodeji & Bokana, Koye & Okoye, Chidozie & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2018. "Agricultural Productivity and Food Supply Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa: LSDV and SYS-GMM Approach," MPRA Paper 90204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Marco d’Errico & Donato Romano & Rebecca Pietrelli, 2018. "Household resilience to food insecurity: evidence from Tanzania and Uganda," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(4), pages 1033-1054, August.
    11. Barbara Häsler & Paula Dominguez-Salas & Kimberly Fornace & Maria Garza & Delia Grace & Jonathan Rushton, 2017. "Where food safety meets nutrition outcomes in livestock and fish value chains: a conceptual approach," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(5), pages 1001-1017, October.
    12. Daum, Thomas, 2018. "Of Bulls and Bulbs: Aspirations and perceptions of rural youth in Zambia," Working Papers 275061, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    13. Alexandra T Tapsoba & Pascale Combes Motel & Jean-Louis Combes, 2019. "Remittances, food security and climate variability: The case of Burkina Faso," CERDI Working papers halshs-02364775, HAL.
    14. Salvatierra Rojas, Ana & Torres Toledo, Victor & Mrabet, Farah & Müller, Joachim, 2018. "Improving milk value chains through solar milk cooling," Working Papers 276621, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    15. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2014. "On the composite indicators for food security: Decisions matter!," MPRA Paper 58955, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Vasilii Erokhin, 2017. "Self-Sufficiency versus Security: How Trade Protectionism Challenges the Sustainability of the Food Supply in Russia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-17, October.
    17. Kolawole Ogundari, 2017. "Categorizing households into different food security states in Nigeria: the socio-economic and demographic determinants," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    18. Ganguly, Kavery & Gulati, Ashok & von Braun, Joachim, 2017. "Innovations spearheading the next transformations in India‘s agriculture," Working Papers 259006, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    19. Anu Susan Sam & Azhar Abbas & Subash Surendran Padmaja & Harald Kaechele & Ranjit Kumar & Klaus Müller, 2019. "Linking Food Security with Household’s Adaptive Capacity and Drought Risk: Implications for Sustainable Rural Development," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 363-385, February.
    20. Rutten, Martine & Achterbosch, Thom J. & de Boer, Imke J.M. & Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Geleijnse, Johanna M. & Havlík, Petr & Heckelei, Thomas & Ingram, John & Leip, Adrian & Marette, Stéphan & van Me, 2018. "Metrics, models and foresight for European sustainable food and nutrition security: The vision of the SUSFANS project," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 45-57.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:3:p:114-:d:1355020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.