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Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters

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  • Saleh Alodayni

    (Department of Economics, King Saud University, Riyadh 11587, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

This paper assesses the effect of the recent 2014–2015 oil price slump on the financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The first objective of this paper is to assess how oil price shock propagates within the macroeconomy and how the macro shocks transmit to GCC banks’ balance sheets. This part of the paper implements a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and a Panel Fixed Effect Model to estimate the response of nonperforming loans (NPLs) to its macroeconomic determinants. The second objective of this paper is to assess any negative feedback effects between the GCC banking systems and the economy. The paper, therefore, implements a Panel VAR model to explore the macro-financial linkages between GCC banking systems and the real economy. The results indicate that oil price, non-oil GDP, interest rate, stock prices, and housing prices are major determinants of NPLs across GCC banks and the overall financial stability in the region. Credit risk shock tends to propagate disturbances to non-oil GDP, credit growth, and stock prices across GCC economies. A higher level of NPLs restricts banks’ credit growth and can dampen economic growth in these economies. The results support the notion that disturbances in banking systems lead to unwanted economic consequences for the real sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Saleh Alodayni, 2016. "Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-14, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:4:y:2016:i:4:p:23-:d:82171
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    Cited by:

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    2. Emmanuel Debrah & Alexander Preko & Seth Ampadu, 2022. "Examining the effect of board size on credit risk of universal banks in Ghana," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 2157100-215, December.
    3. Abdi Seyyedkolaee, Mohammad & Aghaei, Majid & Abbaspoor, Parisa, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Bank Lending Power in Iran: An Application of GMM Approach [El impacto de las fluctuaciones del precio del petróleo en el poder de préstamo bancario en Irán:," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 34(1), pages 177-190, December .
    4. Ghanim Shamas & Zairani Zainol & Zairy Zainol, 2018. "The Impact of Bank’s Determinants on Liquidity Risk: Evidence from Islamic Banks in Bahrain," Journal of Business & Management (COES&RJ-JBM), , vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Nicholas Ngepah & Margarida Liandra Andrade da Silva & Charles Shaaba Saba, 2022. "The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks on Banking System Stability in Developing Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, April.
    6. Nguyen, Thanh Pham Thien & Nghiem, Son & Tripe, David, 2021. "Does oil price aggravate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank performance in India?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Alqahtani, Faisal & Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2020. "The influence of oil prices on the banking sector in oil-exporting economies: Is there a psychological barrier?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Al-Maadid, Alanoud & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2020. "The impact of business and political news on the GCC stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Nasim, Asma & Downing, Gareth, 2023. "Energy shocks and bank performance in the advanced economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Boqiang Lin & Tianxu Lan, 2024. "The time‐varying volatility spillover effects between China's coal and metal market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 699-719, May.
    11. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Sohag, Kazi & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2024. "Oil shocks and financial stability in MENA countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Zhang, Yunhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "How connected is the oil-bank network? Firm-level and high-frequency evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Marina Tiunova, 2019. "Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 38-70, September.
    14. Ghanim Shamas & Zairani Zainol & Zairy Zainol, 2017. "The Moderating Role of Staff Efficiency in the Relationship between Bank¡¯s Specific Variables and Liquidity Risk in Islamic Banks of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(12), pages 278-290, December.
    15. Albaity, Mohamed & Noman, Abu Hanifa Md. & Saadaoui Mallek, Ray & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Cyclicality of bank credit growth: Conventional vs Islamic banks in the GCC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    16. Ahmed Rufai Mohammad & Mohamad Helmi Bin Hidthiir & Alias Bin Mat Nor, 2019. "Assessing the Effect of Change in Oil Prices, Macroeconomics on the Banking Sector Stability in Oil-Producing Countries," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(4), pages 88-93, December.
    17. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Oil structural shocks, bank-level characteristics, and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    18. Kyei, Collins Baffour & Cantah, William Godfred & Junior Owusu, Peterson, 2023. "Effect of commodity prices on financial soundness; insight from adaptive market hypothesis in the Ghanaian setting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    19. Hani El-Chaarani, 2019. "The Impact of oil Prices on the Financial Performance of Banking Sector in Middle East Region," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 148-156.
    20. Ahmad Al Humssi & Maria Petrovskaya & Milana Abueva, 2022. "Modelling the Impact of World Oil Prices and the Mining and Quarrying Sector on the United Arab Emirates’ GDP," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    21. Ahmed, Rizwan & Chaudhry, Sajid M. & Kumpamool, Chamaiporn & Benjasak, Chonlakan, 2022. "Tail risk, systemic risk and spillover risk of crude oil and precious metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

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