IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/202405.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Connected is the Oil-Bank Network? Firm-Level and High-Frequency Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Yunhan Zhang

    (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Qiang Ji

    (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • David Gabauer

    (Academy of Data Science in Finance, Vienna, Austria; Institute of Corporate Finance, Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

Abstract

By introducing a new generalized forecast error variance decomposition (GFEVD) approach that splits the same into its contemporaneous and lagged components, we investigate the risk spillover effects of different order moments, derived from intraday data, for the top 10 banks and top 10 oil and gas companies in the U.S., covering the period from December 29, 2017 to December 30, 2022. The study finds that, first, the dynamic total connectedness of all order moments is heterogeneous over time and economic events. Second, except realized volatility spillovers, the vast majority of overall spillovers are attributable to contemporaneous spillovers, while only a tiny fraction is associated with lagged spillovers. Finally, realized skewness (crash risk) and realized kurtosis (extreme events) in banks and oil and gas companies originate mainly from intra-industry rather than inter-industry transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunhan Zhang & Qiang Ji & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "How Connected is the Oil-Bank Network? Firm-Level and High-Frequency Evidence," Working Papers 202405, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    2. Mert Demirer & Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Estimating global bank network connectedness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Umar, Muhammad & Ji, Xiangfeng & Mirza, Nawazish & Rahat, Birjees, 2021. "The impact of resource curse on banking efficiency: Evidence from twelve oil producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-37, October.
    5. Zhang, Xinxin & Bouri, Elie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Gongqiu, 2022. "The asymmetric relationship between returns and implied higher moments: Evidence from the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2021. "Interest rate swaps and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A quantile connectedness approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    7. Hale, Galina, 2012. "Bank relationships, business cycles, and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 312-325.
    8. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
    9. Yuqin Zhou & Shan Wu & Zhenhua Liu & Lavinia Rognone, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of climate risk on higher-moment connectedness among carbon, energy and metals markets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Bluhm, Marcel & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2014. "Systemic risk in an interconnected banking system with endogenous asset markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 75-94.
    11. Amaya, Diego & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Vasquez, Aurelio, 2015. "Does realized skewness predict the cross-section of equity returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-167.
    12. Wang, Teng, 2021. "Local banks and the effects of oil price shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Nguyen, Viet Hoang & Rafferty, Barry, 2016. "Risk and return spillovers among the G10 currencies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 43-62.
    14. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    15. Lastrapes, William D. & Wiesen, Thomas F.P., 2021. "The joint spillover index," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 681-691.
    16. Bouri, Elie & Lei, Xiaojie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Connectedness in implied higher-order moments of precious metals and energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    17. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2022. "Spillovers beyond the variance: Exploring the higher order risk linkages between commodity markets and global financial markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    18. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    19. Hwang, Soosung & Satchell, Stephen E, 1999. "Modelling Emerging Market Risk Premia Using Higher Moments," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(4), pages 271-296, October.
    20. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    21. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    22. Fang, Hsing & Lai, Tsong-Yue, 1997. "Co-Kurtosis and Capital Asset Pricing," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 293-307, May.
    23. Tonzer, Lena, 2015. "Cross-border interbank networks, banking risk and contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 19-32.
    24. Saleh Alodayni, 2016. "Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-14, November.
    25. Zhang, Yunhan & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong & Guo, Kun, 2024. "How does Shanghai crude oil futures affect top global oil companies: The role of multi-uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    26. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2013. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 185-198.
    27. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "On the higher-order moment interdependence of stock and commodity markets: A wavelet coherence analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-151.
    28. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    29. Ma, Yu & Zhang, Yang & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Do oil shocks affect Chinese bank risk?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    30. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    31. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
    32. Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "High-frequency volatility connectedness between the US crude oil market and China's agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-438.
    33. Abdel-Latif, Hany & El-Gamal, Mahmoud, 2020. "Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    34. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining & Yu, Lining, 2016. "TENET: Tail-Event driven NETwork risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 499-513.
    35. Kathleen Herbohn & Ru Gao & Peter Clarkson, 2019. "Evidence on Whether Banks Consider Carbon Risk in Their Lending Decisions," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 155-175, August.
    36. Wu, Fei & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Systemic risk and financial contagion across top global energy companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    37. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2017. "An intertemporal CAPM with higher-order moments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 314-337.
    38. He, Xie & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Is volatility spillover enough for investor decisions? A new viewpoint from higher moments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    39. Sheng, Yu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2013. "Energy market integration and equitable growth across countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 319-325.
    40. Lionel Martellini & Volker Ziemann, 2010. "Improved Estimates of Higher-Order Comoments and Implications for Portfolio Selection," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1467-1502, April.
    41. Badarau, Cristina & Lapteacru, Ion, 2020. "Bank risk, competition and bank connectedness with firms: A literature review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    42. Erik P. Gilje, 2019. "Does Local Access to Finance Matter? Evidence from U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Shale Booms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 1-18, January.
    43. Apergis, Nicholas, 2023. "Realized higher-order moments spillovers across cryptocurrencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    44. Wu, Fei & Xiao, Xuanqi & Zhou, Xinyu & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Complex risk contagions among large international energy firms: A multi-layer network analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    45. Bollerslev, Tim & Zhou, Hao, 2006. "Volatility puzzles: a simple framework for gauging return-volatility regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 123-150.
    46. Nasim, Asma & Ullah, Subhan & Kim, Ja Ryong & Hameed, Affan, 2023. "Energy shocks and bank efficiency in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    47. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    48. Yue-Jun Zhang & Shu-Hui Li, 2019. "The impact of investor sentiment on crude oil market risks: evidence from the wavelet approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 1357-1371, August.
    49. Nekhili, Ramzi & Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Dynamic spillover and connectedness in higher moments of European stock sector markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    50. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Time-frequency dependence and connectedness among global oil markets: Fresh evidence from higher-order moment perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    51. Gabauer, David & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Stenfors, Alexis, 2023. "Model-free connectedness measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    52. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    53. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "On the transmission mechanism of country-specific and international economic uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR connectedness decomposition approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 63-71.
    54. repec:iae:iaewps:wp2016n4 is not listed on IDEAS
    55. Caloia, Francesco Giuseppe & Cipollini, Andrea & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2019. "How do normalization schemes affect net spillovers? A replication of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    56. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    57. Bouri, Elie & Lei, Xiaojie & Jalkh, Naji & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "Spillovers in higher moments and jumps across US stock and strategic commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    58. Michael A. Urban & Dariusz Wójcik, 2019. "Dirty Banking: Probing the Gap in Sustainable Finance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-23, March.
    59. Kurov, Alexander & Stan, Raluca, 2018. "Monetary policy uncertainty and the market reaction to macroeconomic news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 127-142.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Alomari, Mohammed & Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Ko, Hee-Un & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Dynamic spillovers in higher moments and jumps across ETFs and economic and financial uncertainty factors in the context of successive shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 210-228.
    6. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham & Liao, Dijia, 2024. "Risk connectedness between international oil and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Fresh evidence from the higher-order moments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Chen, Huayi & Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2024. "Carbon volatility connectedness and the role of external uncertainties: Evidence from China," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    8. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Karim, Sitara, 2024. "Measuring the G20 stock market return transmission mechanism: Evidence from the R2 connectedness approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Cocca, Teodoro & Gabauer, David & Pomberger, Stefan, 2024. "Clean energy market connectedness and investment strategies: New evidence from DCC-GARCH R2 decomposed connectedness measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Gabauer, David & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Stenfors, Alexis, 2023. "Model-free connectedness measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Biswas, Priti & Jain, Prachi & Maitra, Debasish, 2024. "Are shocks in the stock markets driven by commodity markets? Evidence from Russia-Ukraine war," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    12. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham & Goh, Mark & Zou, Huiwen, 2022. "Risk spillovers and time-varying links between international oil and China’s commodity futures markets: Fresh evidence from the higher-order moments," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    13. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2022. "On the Propagation Mechanism of International Real Interest Rate Spillovers: Evidence from More than 200 Years of Data," Working Papers 202212, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Time-frequency dependence and connectedness among global oil markets: Fresh evidence from higher-order moment perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    15. Szafranek, Karol & Rubaszek, Michał & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "The role of uncertainty and sentiment for intraday volatility connectedness between oil and financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. Zhang, Wenting & He, Xie & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war on multiscale spillovers in green finance markets: Evidence from lower and higher order moments," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Shafiullah, Muhammad & Senthilkumar, Arunachalam & Lucey, Brian M. & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2024. "Deciphering asymmetric spillovers in US industries: Insights from higher-order moments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    18. Xu Zhang & Xian Yang & Jianping Li & Jun Hao, 2023. "Contemporaneous and noncontemporaneous idiosyncratic risk spillovers in commodity futures markets: A novel network topology approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 705-733, June.
    19. Mensi, Walid & Ko, Hee-Un & Sensoy, Ahmet & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Higher-order moment connectedness between stock and commodity markets and portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    20. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2020. "From CIP-deviations to a market for risk premia: A dynamic investigation of cross-currency basis swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking connectedness; TVP-VAR; higher moments; dynamic connectedness; GFEVD decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.