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Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050

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  • Takayuki Takeshita

    (Transdisciplinary Initiative for Global Sustainability, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan)

Abstract

This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO 2 mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO 2 , NO x , and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO 2 , NO x , and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO 2 , NO x , and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO 2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them .

Suggested Citation

  • Takayuki Takeshita, 2011. "Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-31, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:8:y:2011:i:7:p:3032-3062:d:13280
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    References listed on IDEAS

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