IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v21y2024i7p815-d1419825.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Elucidating Uncertainty in Heat Vulnerability Mapping: Perspectives on Impact Variables and Modeling Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Sockho Jeong

    (Chungnam Economy Promotion Agency, Support Center for Community Revitalization, Yesan-gun 32416, Republic of Korea)

  • Yeonyeop Lim

    (Department of Geography, Kongju National University, Kongju-si 32588, Republic of Korea)

  • Yeji Kang

    (Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Korea Environment Institute, Sejong-si 30116, Republic of Korea)

  • Chaeyeon Yi

    (Research Center for Atmospheric Environment, Global Campus, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin-si 17035, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

Heat vulnerability maps are vital for identifying at-risk areas and guiding interventions, yet their relationship with health outcomes is underexplored. This study investigates the uncertainty in heat vulnerability maps generated using health outcomes and various statistical models. We constructed vulnerability maps for 167 municipalities in Korea, focusing on the mild and severe health impacts of heat waves on morbidity and mortality. The outcomes included incidence rates of heat-related outpatient visits (morbidity) and attributable mortality rates (mortality) among individuals aged 65 years and older. To construct these maps, we utilized 11 socioeconomic variables related to population, climate, and economic factors. Both linear and nonlinear statistical models were employed to assign these socioeconomic variables to heat vulnerability. We observed variations in the crucial socioeconomic variables affecting morbidity and mortality in the vulnerability maps. Notably, nonlinear models depicted the spatial patterns of health outcomes more accurately than linear models, considering the relationship between health outcomes and socioeconomic variables. Our findings emphasize the differences in the spatial distribution of heat vulnerability based on health outcomes and the choice of statistical models. These insights underscore the importance of selecting appropriate models to enhance the reliability of heat vulnerability maps and their relevance for policy-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Sockho Jeong & Yeonyeop Lim & Yeji Kang & Chaeyeon Yi, 2024. "Elucidating Uncertainty in Heat Vulnerability Mapping: Perspectives on Impact Variables and Modeling Approaches," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(7), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:21:y:2024:i:7:p:815-:d:1419825
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/21/7/815/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/21/7/815/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Noriko Takahashi & Rieko Nakao & Kayo Ueda & Masaji Ono & Masahide Kondo & Yasushi Honda & Masahiro Hashizume, 2015. "Community Trial on Heat Related-Illness Prevention Behaviors and Knowledge for the Elderly," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Harlan, Sharon L. & Brazel, Anthony J. & Prashad, Lela & Stefanov, William L. & Larsen, Larissa, 2006. "Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(11), pages 2847-2863, December.
    3. Seulkee Heo & Amruta Nori-Sarma & Kwonsang Lee & Tarik Benmarhnia & Francesca Dominici & Michelle L. Bell, 2019. "The Use of a Quasi-Experimental Study on the Mortality Effect of a Heat Wave Warning System in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Jongchul Park & Yeora Chae & Seo Hyung Choi, 2019. "Analysis of Mortality Change Rate from Temperature in Summer by Age, Occupation, Household Type, and Chronic Diseases in 229 Korean Municipalities from 2007–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saber Yezli & Abdulaziz Mushi & Yara Yassin & Fuad Maashi & Anas Khan, 2019. "Knowledge, Attitude and Practice of Pilgrims Regarding Heat-Related Illnesses during the 2017 Hajj Mass Gathering," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Monika Nitschke & Antoinette Krackowizer & Alana L. Hansen & Peng Bi & Graeme R. Tucker, 2017. "Heat Health Messages: A Randomized Controlled Trial of a Preventative Messages Tool in the Older Population of South Australia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-10, August.
    3. H. Allen Klaiber & Joshua K. Abbott & V. Kerry Smith, 2017. "Some Like It (Less) Hot: Extracting Trade-Off Measures for Physically Coupled Amenities," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(4), pages 1053-1079.
    4. Fariha Hasan & Shayan Marsia & Kajal Patel & Priyanka Agrawal & Junaid Abdul Razzak, 2021. "Effective Community-Based Interventions for the Prevention and Management of Heat-Related Illnesses: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-14, August.
    5. Susan Williams & Peng Bi & Jonathan Newbury & Guy Robinson & Dino Pisaniello & Arthur Saniotis & Alana Hansen, 2013. "Extreme Heat and Health: Perspectives from Health Service Providers in Rural and Remote Communities in South Australia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Weihua Dong & Zhao Liu & Lijie Zhang & Qiuhong Tang & Hua Liao & Xian'en Li, 2014. "Assessing Heat Health Risk for Sustainability in Beijing’s Urban Heat Island," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(10), pages 1-24, October.
    7. Fei Li & Tan Yigitcanlar & Madhav Nepal & Kien Nguyen Thanh & Fatih Dur, 2022. "Understanding Urban Heat Vulnerability Assessment Methods: A PRISMA Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-34, September.
    8. Sara Wilkinson & Renato Castiglia Feitosa, 2015. "Retrofitting Housing with Lightweight Green Roof Technology in Sydney, Australia, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, January.
    9. De Valck, Jeremy & Beames, Alistair & Liekens, Inge & Bettens, Maarten & Seuntjens, Piet & Broekx, Steven, 2019. "Valuing urban ecosystem services in sustainable brownfield redevelopment," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 139-149.
    10. Tao Chen & Anchang Sun & Ruiqing Niu, 2019. "Effect of Land Cover Fractions on Changes in Surface Urban Heat Islands Using Landsat Time-Series Images," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, March.
    11. Kaddour Mehiriz & Pierre Gosselin & Isabelle Tardif & Marc-André Lemieux, 2018. "The Effect of an Automated Phone Warning and Health Advisory System on Adaptation to High Heat Episodes and Health Services Use in Vulnerable Groups—Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-13, July.
    12. Vaneckova, Pavla & Beggs, Paul J. & Jacobson, Carol R., 2010. "Spatial analysis of heat-related mortality among the elderly between 1993 and 2004 in Sydney, Australia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 293-304, January.
    13. Wei Zhang & Phil McManus & Elizabeth Duncan, 2018. "A Raster-Based Subdividing Indicator to Map Urban Heat Vulnerability: A Case Study in Sydney, Australia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Maria Papathoma-Koehle & Catrin Promper & Roxana Bojariu & Roxana Cica & András Sik & Kinga Perge & Peter László & Erika Balázs Czikora & Alexandru Dumitrescu & Cosmin Turcus & Marius-Victor Birsan & , 2016. "A common methodology for risk assessment and mapping for south-east Europe: an application for heat wave risk in Romania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 89-109, May.
    15. Qunshan Zhao & Elizabeth A. Wentz, 2016. "A MODIS/ASTER Airborne Simulator (MASTER) Imagery for Urban Heat Island Research," Data, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-9, June.
    16. Wenwen Cheng & J. O. Spengler & Robert D. Brown, 2020. "A Comprehensive Model for Estimating Heat Vulnerability of Young Athletes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-11, August.
    17. Shalin Bidassey-Manilal & Caradee Yael Wright & Thandi Kapwata & Joyce Shirinde, 2020. "A Study Protocol to Determine Heat-Related Health Impacts among Primary Schoolchildren in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-12, July.
    18. Yuan-Bin Cai & Ke Li & Yan-Hong Chen & Lei Wu & Wen-Bin Pan, 2021. "The Changes of Heat Contribution Index in Urban Thermal Environment: A Case Study in Fuzhou," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-18, August.
    19. Leeann Kuehn & Sabrina McCormick, 2017. "Heat Exposure and Maternal Health in the Face of Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-13, July.
    20. Weihua Dong & Zhao Liu & Hua Liao & Qiuhong Tang & Xian’en Li, 2015. "New climate and socio-economic scenarios for assessing global human health challenges due to heat risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 505-518, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:21:y:2024:i:7:p:815-:d:1419825. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.