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Elucidating Uncertainty in Heat Vulnerability Mapping: Perspectives on Impact Variables and Modeling Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Sockho Jeong

    (Chungnam Economy Promotion Agency, Support Center for Community Revitalization, Yesan-gun 32416, Republic of Korea)

  • Yeonyeop Lim

    (Department of Geography, Kongju National University, Kongju-si 32588, Republic of Korea)

  • Yeji Kang

    (Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Korea Environment Institute, Sejong-si 30116, Republic of Korea)

  • Chaeyeon Yi

    (Research Center for Atmospheric Environment, Global Campus, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin-si 17035, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

Heat vulnerability maps are vital for identifying at-risk areas and guiding interventions, yet their relationship with health outcomes is underexplored. This study investigates the uncertainty in heat vulnerability maps generated using health outcomes and various statistical models. We constructed vulnerability maps for 167 municipalities in Korea, focusing on the mild and severe health impacts of heat waves on morbidity and mortality. The outcomes included incidence rates of heat-related outpatient visits (morbidity) and attributable mortality rates (mortality) among individuals aged 65 years and older. To construct these maps, we utilized 11 socioeconomic variables related to population, climate, and economic factors. Both linear and nonlinear statistical models were employed to assign these socioeconomic variables to heat vulnerability. We observed variations in the crucial socioeconomic variables affecting morbidity and mortality in the vulnerability maps. Notably, nonlinear models depicted the spatial patterns of health outcomes more accurately than linear models, considering the relationship between health outcomes and socioeconomic variables. Our findings emphasize the differences in the spatial distribution of heat vulnerability based on health outcomes and the choice of statistical models. These insights underscore the importance of selecting appropriate models to enhance the reliability of heat vulnerability maps and their relevance for policy-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Sockho Jeong & Yeonyeop Lim & Yeji Kang & Chaeyeon Yi, 2024. "Elucidating Uncertainty in Heat Vulnerability Mapping: Perspectives on Impact Variables and Modeling Approaches," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(7), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:21:y:2024:i:7:p:815-:d:1419825
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jongchul Park & Yeora Chae & Seo Hyung Choi, 2019. "Analysis of Mortality Change Rate from Temperature in Summer by Age, Occupation, Household Type, and Chronic Diseases in 229 Korean Municipalities from 2007–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Harlan, Sharon L. & Brazel, Anthony J. & Prashad, Lela & Stefanov, William L. & Larsen, Larissa, 2006. "Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(11), pages 2847-2863, December.
    4. Seulkee Heo & Amruta Nori-Sarma & Kwonsang Lee & Tarik Benmarhnia & Francesca Dominici & Michelle L. Bell, 2019. "The Use of a Quasi-Experimental Study on the Mortality Effect of a Heat Wave Warning System in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-20, June.
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