IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v20y2023i3p2697-d1055913.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mean Temperature and Drought Projections in Central Africa: A Population-Based Study of Food Insecurity, Childhood Malnutrition and Mortality, and Infectious Disease

Author

Listed:
  • Munum Hassan

    (Department of Research, Akhtar Saeed Medical College, University of Health Sciences, Lahore 54000, Pakistan)

  • Kinza Saif

    (Department of Research, Wah Medical College, University of Health Sciences, Wah Cantt 47000, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Saad Ijaz

    (Department of Research, Rawalpindi Medical University, Rawalpindi 46000, Pakistan)

  • Zouina Sarfraz

    (Department of Research and Publications, Fatima Jinnah Medical University, Lahore 54000, Pakistan)

  • Azza Sarfraz

    (Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, The Aga Khan University, Karachi 74800, Pakistan)

  • Karla Robles-Velasco

    (Department of Allergy and Pulmonology, Universidad Espíritu Santo, Samborondón 092301, Ecuador)

  • Ivan Cherrez-Ojeda

    (Department of Allergy and Pulmonology, Universidad Espíritu Santo, Samborondón 092301, Ecuador)

Abstract

The Central African Region is an agricultural and fishing-based economy, with 40% of the population living in rural communities. The negative impacts of climate change have caused economic/health-related adverse impacts and food insecurity. This original article aims to research four key themes: (i) acute food insecurity (AFI); (ii) childhood malnutrition and mortality; (iii) infectious disease burden; and (iv) drought and mean temperature projections throughout the twenty-first century. Food insecurity was mapped in Central Africa based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for AFI. The global hunger index (GHI) was presented along with the proportion of children with undernourishment, stunting, wasting, and mortality. Data for infectious disease burden was computed by assessing the adjusted rate of change (AROC) of mortality due to diarrhea among children and the burden of death rates due to pneumonia across all age groups. Finally, the mean drought index was computed through the year 2100. This population-based study identifies high levels of hunger across a majority of the countries, with the mean drought index suggesting extreme ends of wet and dry days and an overall rise of 1–3 °C. This study is a source of evidence for stakeholders, policymakers, and the population residing in Central Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Munum Hassan & Kinza Saif & Muhammad Saad Ijaz & Zouina Sarfraz & Azza Sarfraz & Karla Robles-Velasco & Ivan Cherrez-Ojeda, 2023. "Mean Temperature and Drought Projections in Central Africa: A Population-Based Study of Food Insecurity, Childhood Malnutrition and Mortality, and Infectious Disease," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:3:p:2697-:d:1055913
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/3/2697/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/3/2697/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Molua, Ernest L. & Lambi, Cornelius M., 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Cameroon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4364, The World Bank.
    2. Thaddaeus Obaji Ariom & Elodie Dimon & Eva Nambeye & Ndèye Seynabou Diouf & Oludotun Olusegun Adelusi & Sofiane Boudalia, 2022. "Climate-Smart Agriculture in African Countries: A Review of Strategies and Impacts on Smallholder Farmers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-32, September.
    3. Cristina Canova & Anna Cantarutti, 2020. "Population-Based Birth Cohort Studies in Epidemiology," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-6, July.
    4. Justus Ochieng & Beatrice Knerr & George Owuor & Emily Ouma, 2020. "Food crops commercialization and household livelihoods: Evidence from rural regions in Central Africa," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 318-338, April.
    5. Saima Abdul Jabbar & Laila Tul Qadar & Sulaman Ghafoor & Lubna Rasheed & Zouina Sarfraz & Azza Sarfraz & Muzna Sarfraz & Miguel Felix & Ivan Cherrez-Ojeda, 2022. "Air Quality, Pollution and Sustainability Trends in South Asia: A Population-Based Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Acevedo, Sebastian & Mrkaic, Mico & Novta, Natalija & Pugacheva, Evgenia & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Philip Antwi-Agyei & Andrew J. Dougill & Thomas P. Agyekum & Lindsay C. Stringer, 2018. "Alignment between nationally determined contributions and the sustainable development goals for West Africa," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 1296-1312, November.
    8. Nadia S. Ouedraogo, 2020. "Transition pathways for North Africa to meet its (intended) nationally determined contributions ((I)NDCs) under the Paris Agreement: a model-based assessment," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 71-94, January.
    9. Freire-González, Jaume & Decker, Christopher & Hall, Jim W., 2017. "The Economic Impacts of Droughts: A Framework for Analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 196-204.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Derese Tamiru Desta & Tadesse Fikre Teferra & Samson Gebremedhin, 2024. "The Effect of Rainfall and Temperature Patterns on Childhood Linear Growth in the Tropics: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(10), pages 1-23, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Serhan Cevik, 2024. "Climate change and energy security: the dilemma or opportunity of the century?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 26(3), pages 653-672, July.
    2. Genesis T. Yengoh & Frederick Ato Armah & Edward Ebo Onumah, 2010. "Paths to Attaining Food Security: The Case of Cameroon," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Jorge M. Uribe, 2023. ""Fiscal crises and climate change"," IREA Working Papers 202303, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2023.
    4. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    5. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Tite Ehuitché Béké & Aïssata Sobia, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Climatic Variations on Ivorian Rice Farming," Journal of Agricultural Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 88-109, June.
    7. Festus Tongwa Aka & Gaston Wung Buh & Wilson Yatoh Fantong & Issa & Isabella Tem Zouh & Serges Laurent Bopda Djomou & Richard Tanwi Ghogomu & Terry Gibson & Mary-Ann Marmol del & Luc Nkamdjou Sigha & , 2017. "Disaster prevention, disaster preparedness and local community resilience within the context of disaster risk management in Cameroon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 57-88, March.
    8. Joel O. Botai & Christina M. Botai & Katlego P. Ncongwane & Sylvester Mpandeli & Luxon Nhamo & Muthoni Masinde & Abiodun M. Adeola & Michael G. Mengistu & Henerica Tazvinga & Miriam D. Murambadoro & S, 2021. "A Review of the Water–Energy–Food Nexus Research in Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-26, February.
    9. Jiao, Xiyu & Pretis, Felix & Schwarz, Moritz, 2024. "Testing for coefficient distortion due to outliers with an application to the economic impacts of climate change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    10. Ani Melkonyan & Malcolm Asadoorian, 2014. "Climate impact on agroeconomy in semiarid region of Armenia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 393-414, April.
    11. Boureima Sawadogo, 2022. "Drought Impacts on the Crop Sector and Adaptation Options in Burkina Faso: A Gender-Focused Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Innocent Ngiehnu Nchu & Jude Ndzifon Kimengsi & Gerald Kapp, 2019. "Diagnosing Climate Adaptation Constraints in Rural Subsistence Farming Systems in Cameroon: Gender and Institutional Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-16, July.
    13. Serhan Cevik, João Tovar Jalles, 2023. "For Whom the Bell Tolls: Climate Change and Income Inequality," Working Papers REM 2023/0277, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2021. "Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115526, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Cevik Serhan & Ghazanchyan Manuk, 2021. "Perfect Storm: Climate Change and Tourism," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 47-61, June.
    17. Bate Godwill Bate & Jude Ndzifon Kimengsi & Sani Gur Amawa, 2019. "Determinants and Policy Implications of Farmers’ Climate Adaptation Choices in Rural Cameroon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-14, March.
    18. Byela Tibesigwa & Martine Visser & Jane Turpie, 2017. "Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture, crop, livestock and mixed farming systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 607-636, April.
    19. Zheng, Hongyun & Ma, Wanglin, 2023. "Impact of agricultural commercialization on dietary diversity and vulnerability to poverty: Insights from Chinese rural households," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 558-569.
    20. Thompson, Wyatt & Lu, Yaqiong & Gerlt, Scott & Yang, Xianyu & Campbell, J. Elliott & Kueppers, Lara M. & Snyder, Mark A., 2018. "Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 98-105.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:3:p:2697-:d:1055913. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.