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“From fields to frontiers” - Cash crop price shocks and migration intentions in rural Africa

Author

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  • Luisito Bertinelli

    (DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU)

  • Arrnaud Bourgain

    (DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU)

  • Elisabeth Kempter

    (DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU)

Abstract

How do cash crop price shocks shape migration intentions in rural, agriculturally intensive regions of sub- Saharan Africa? Focusing on communities heavily reliant on cash crop income, we examine migration intentions following negative cash crop price shocks. Using a difference-in-differences approach with continuous treatment, we analyze data from 278,898 rural individuals across 432 regions in 41 sub- Saharan African countries. The results indicate that a negative cash crop price shock increases the likelihood of international migration intentions, an effect that is particularly pronounced in regions with higher cropland intensity. These findings are confirmed by several additional analyses and contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between agricultural livelihood instability and migration intentions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisito Bertinelli & Arrnaud Bourgain & Elisabeth Kempter, 2025. "“From fields to frontiers” - Cash crop price shocks and migration intentions in rural Africa," DEM Discussion Paper Series 25-03, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:25-03
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10993/63790
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; cash crops; agriculture; economic and price shocks; sub-Saharan Africa.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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